Silver Stackers Forum

Peter · 2010-01-18 14:12:40

Hi.
Just a thought, but I think that the principal factor in the pog is
Chineses moms and dads buying gold.If they only bought one onze on average
thats 1.3 billion onzes,About 40 million kilo.
This might have an effect on the price of gold .

So anyone know how this is going?
Peter

lionfishcoin · 2010-01-18 15:19:17

The reality is Chinese moms and dads dont have so much money to spend on gold for their baby. They are struggling to buy a tiny 50 square meter flat for themselves.

goldpelican · 2010-01-18 15:27:39

Pure guess but much more likely IMO is the rich upper class who would be buying kilos of the stuff at a time... the sort who can afford to buy two or three houses in Brighton VIC and land bank them might be inclined to spend $3 million on bullion instead and have 75kg of gold to stack and fondle in person rather than the title to land in another country.

Although personally I would be very coy about owning that much bullion in a communist socialist republic! Never know when your wealth is going to be "redistributed".

ozcopper · 2010-01-18 15:51:59

goldpelican wrote:
Although personally I would be very coy about owning that much bullion in a communist socialist republic! Never know when your wealth is going to be "redistributed".

And western countries are becoming more socialist all the time unfortunately

Aurora et luna · 2010-01-18 15:57:24

goldpelican wrote:
Pure guess but much more likely IMO is the rich upper class who would be buying kilos of the stuff at a time... the sort who can afford to buy two or three houses in Brighton VIC and land bank them might be inclined to spend $3 million on bullion instead and have 75kg of gold to stack and fondle in person rather than the title to land in another country.

Although personally I would be very coy about owning that much bullion in a communist socialist republic! Never know when your wealth is going to be "redistributed".

Houses and land are pretty visible assets.
You read about all the corruption going on there, so gold is in my opinion the only invisible asset to launder their money.
Burying it, is not that difficult and when you need it, you only have to sell small quantities at a time to avoid attention.
The stupid ones are those who buy expensive homes and attract attention to themselves. Hard to explain how an official earning 10-20000 yuan a year can afford a million or two million yuan home.

Roo · 2010-01-18 16:26:30

Silver will grow much quicker then gold in China in the next few years...

Peter · 2010-01-18 16:48:50

Hi
Why do you think silver will do better Roo?
And do you think gold and silver will both do well?
By the way,
Even if 1% of the Chinese population bought 1 onze,this is 400,000 ton.
How much gold is there?
The Chinese government is,as I understand,advertising to its population that it should buy gold.
And the chinese have traditionally loved gold.
Of all factor influencing potential price today,this seems the greatest to me.
Peter

Big A.D. · 2010-01-18 17:04:11

The Chinese have never been particularly adverse to silver either and silver is a lot more affordable. Well, silver appears to be more affordable anyway - you get more weight for your money.

I think the prospects for both gold and silver look good when China is taken into consideration.

Roo · 2010-01-18 17:54:51

PETER wrote:
Hi
Why do you think silver will do better Roo?
And do you think gold and silver will both do well?
By the way,
Even if 1% of the Chinese population bought 1 onze,this is 400,000 ton.
How much gold is there?
The Chinese government is,as I understand,advertising to its population that it should buy gold.
And the chinese have traditionally loved gold.
Of all factor influencing potential price today,this seems the greatest to me.
Peter

Hi Peter,

I think Gold will do very well too.. but silver will do better..
Its cheaper and more affordable to the mass.. Even villager with little money can buy silver as a tangable asset.
Yes ..the Chinese traditionally love gold.. but traditionally they love silver also.. obviously they go hand in hand but the differnce in price and the affordabillity of silver will make it very popular.
Yes the government is advertising its population to buy gold and i heard the government is telling its population that silver will do better in terms of investment then gold.. If the government there says so you can bet that the heard mentality will develop momentum in the next 2 years... I feel that China is the steam engine thats going to take the train to moon...

but hey.. what do i know... im the kind of guy that feels faint when trying to read a chart

Last edited by Roo (2010-01-18 17:56:21)

lionfishcoin · 2010-01-18 21:22:08

PETER wrote:
Hi
Why do you think silver will do better Roo?
And do you think gold and silver will both do well?
By the way,
Even if 1% of the Chinese population bought 1 onze,this is 400,000 ton.
How much gold is there?
The Chinese government is,as I understand,advertising to its population that it should buy gold.
And the chinese have traditionally loved gold.
Of all factor influencing potential price today,this seems the greatest to me.
Peter

Actually, gold market in China is already very hot since several years ago, also silver used to be the Chinese official currency in last 5000 years and ended till 100 years ago. China mint officially issued gold coins and silver coins are much more expansive than Australian's. So I think both gold and silver Chinese market already contributed a lot to the precious metal commodity bullish market at least in the last 5 years.

Peter · 2010-01-22 17:16:55

Hi
From other sources
1)That gold has been available in China since 2002
2)That the Chinese government are making no special effort to push it.
Peter

Nugget · 2010-01-22 18:27:16

lionfishcoin wrote:
also silver used to be the Chinese official currency in last 5000 years and ended till 100 years ago.

So very many people don't get the fact that the world has been on a government fiat for only a very short time.

That's why I stack

chimpanchu · 2010-01-22 19:49:23

I think Chinese buy gold in the form of jewellery. Even then not everybody in China can afford gold just like most everyone else in other countries.

There are way more people in China who don't own gold than those who own it.

Peter · 2010-01-27 09:51:13

* Business
* Gold

Chinese dig deep to join the gold rush

• Sellers enjoy a golden period as demand soars
• China named as the world's biggest gold consumer

* Buzz up!
* Digg it

* Tania Branigan in Beijing
* guardian.co.uk, Monday 25 January 2010 20.04 GMT
* Article history

Chinese gold shop Caibai

Counter staff at Chinese gold retailer Caibai in Beijing Photograph: Dan Chung

The assistant pushed the red velvet sacks across the counter discreetly. The customer quickly slipped them into her bag. With a brief, nervous look around, she walked briskly from the shop, already clutching her car keys.

Few people feel comfortable lugging around a kilo of pure gold bars. But that doesn't stop Chinese shoppers from thronging to Caibai, the number one place for buying the precious metal. The Beijing store's 5,000 daily customers are at the forefront of a new gold rush.

Since 2007, when South Africa fell behind, China has been the world's biggest gold producer. Now the World Gold Council and industry analysts believe it may have overtaken India – for centuries the dominant buyer – to become the biggest consumer too. The China Gold Association estimated demand would exceed 450 tonnes last year, up from 395.6 tonnes in 2008 (the actual figures are not yet available).

The country's rising consumption both drives, and is fuelled by, the increase in global gold prices. Last January, an ounce of gold cost about $750 (£550). But on 3 December, it hit a record high of just over $1,226. Since then it has slid to $1,095, but is still far above its level in the past few years.

Much of the gain is recent. In the third quarter of 2009, gold demand on the mainland soared 12% year-on-year to a record high of 120.2 tonnes. Internationally, demand for jewellery was down 30%, but in China it rose 8% to 93.5 tonnes while retail investment rose a staggering 30% to a record 26.8 tonnes.

Albert Cheng, Far East managing director for the World Gold Council, points out this is partly because China's continued economic growth is enabling consumers to indulge in a favourite luxury. "The Chinese have a deep affinity to gold which dates back thousand of years," he says. "No marriage will be ideal if the bride does not receive gold jewellery."

China is hardly the only culture to prize gold. But the council, which is funded by mining companies, has spotted something distinctive about its consumers. In India, Turkey and the Middle East, buyers have been deterred by the soaring cost of the metal. In China, however, it noted in a recent report, "the rising gold price is seen as a positive factor – consumers like to buy into a rising price".

That is why, even on a weekday morning, the shop floor at Caibai is rammed. On busy days, 10,000 people pass through its doors. This store is to gold what Marks & Spencer is to underwear in Britain: not the most glamorous source, nor the cheapest, but the tried and trusted favourite. In 2008, the company sold gold worth 3.5bn yuan (£316m). In the first 11 months of 2009, it sold 4.1bn yuan, and the lead up to the Chinese new year – which falls next month – is always a busy period.

Customers are picking over delicately wrought earrings and gazing covetously at huge, embellished collars. Increasing prosperity is enabling middle-class consumers to treat themselves; Liu Hongxia, leaving the store with a newly acquired bangle, recalls splashing her first pay packet on a ring for herself and earrings for her mother. No wonder she feels nostalgic – that was more than a decade ago. "Now the price is three times higher," she said ruefully.

Nearby shelves are stacked with solid gold statuettes: busts of Chairman Mao, frolicking labradors, soaring eagles and majestic galleons. Laughing Buddhas sit beside writhing dragons. Every item is labelled by weight, and charged according to the metal's price on the day of sale.

But a glass case close to the entrance – and closer to security guards – offers a clue to the hottest draw. Inside sits a 50kg, 24-carat bar: so big, it looks as though it should be made of chocolate and covered in foil. Upstairs, shoppers are buying smaller versions. To them, gold is not just a lavish gift or a reward for hard work, but a hedge against uncertainty and a potential money maker.

"This is the first time I've invested in it," said Ji Junqing, a 38-year-old accountant, hugging her treasure-filled handbag as she spoke. "I used the stock market before, but I think this is more stable. I've been reading about it in all the newspapers and magazines, so I'm putting in about 20% of my assets.

"Whether it's a short- or long-term move depends on how it fares, but I believe the price will keep going up. When you buy gold you see real gold – when you buy something else it's simulated."

Shares are too risky, agree other buyers, stung by last year's freefall of Chinese stocks. Housing is too expensive. They fear inflation could whittle away the value of cash holdings.

Gold looks attractive to the government too. Last year, Beijing revealed it had been buying gold since 2003, increasing its holdings from 600 to 1,054 tonnes. So far it has bought domestically, but its foreign exchange reserves – the world's largest, at $2.27tn – are largely invested in US government bonds. Given concerns about the US economy, many expect China to buy gold internationally to diversify its assets, as other central banks have done recently, driving up the price. Production is on the increase as well: the China Gold Association predicted it would hit a record 310 tonnes in 2009, up from 282 tonnes the previous year.

Newspapers report that coal bosses, driven out of business by a nationalisation campaign, are caught in bidding wars for gold mines instead. "People are running around with bags of cash to buy the right to exploit gold as soon as possible," Liu Jun, a former coal boss from Zhejiang, told the Xinmin Evening Post.

Some of these mines have yet to produce gold. But many buyers do not seem to mind: they are simply flipping the mines, reselling them as soon as the price goes up. "It makes money quicker than real mining," said another former coal boss.

Like Caibai's shoppers, they see gold not just as an investment haven but as an irresistibly accumulating asset. Yet while some experts predict a long-term rise in the international price, others fear prices could fall sharply. In 1999, at its lowest, gold was worth just $252.8 an ounce. No one expects it to plummet to that level, or to drop tomorrow. But it may not always lo

Peter · 2010-01-30 08:44:43

Gold’s China Syndrome
by Sean Brodrick on January 29, 2010 at 8:30 am

Gold continues to slump lower as the U.S. dollar goes higher — and now we’re hearing talk of a gold “meltdown.” Oh, please! Sure, gold could be in for a deeper correction — I’d love for it to pull back to support around $945, so I could buy more. And as this chart shows, gold could be on its way there in the short-term …

You can see that gold seems to have broken the “neckline” of a head-and-shoulders pattern. This predicts a move down to $945 or so. I think that the end result of such a move down would be a set-up for a tremendous buying opportunity.
But a meltdown? Once this correction is over, I think we should worry more about gold melting up.
I’ve pounded the table on a bunch of forces that should drive gold higher in the longer-term — tight supply, an explosion in government debt, debasement of paper currencies, demand from exchange-traded funds that hold physical gold and more. But today, I want to talk about a force that is becoming more bullish all the time — China.
Now, some people believe China will weigh on gold prices. After all, China is the one major gold-producing country with rising production. The China Gold Association predicted that gold mine output would hit a record 310 metric tonnes in 2009, up from 282 tonnes the previous year.
However, that gold is consumed internally, by the Chinese government or consumers. And it’s still not enough. China is becoming the roaring tiger of gold demand.
Internal Sponsorship
The big question for today:
What do you do for income?
More specifically, which fixed-income investments do you prefer?
Sure — the safest ones are paying bupkis right now. But for many — especially retired investors and those approaching retirement, the return OF their money can often be more important than the return ON their money.
Click here to let us know what types of fixed-income investments have a place in your portfolio.

China’s Golden Year
You probably know that India is the biggest consumer of gold — a title it’s held for centuries. But according to analysts at the World Gold Council, China may have overtaken India to become the biggest consumer. The China Gold Association estimated demand would exceed 450 tonnes last year, up from 395.6 tonnes in 2008 (the actual figures are not yet available).
“The Chinese have a deep affinity to gold which dates back thousands of years,” Albert Cheng, Far East Manager of the World Gold Council, said in press reports. “No marriage will be ideal if the bride does not receive gold jewelry.”
Meanwhile, India’s private demand ran 45% below 2008 levels during the first 9 months of the year. If India’s purchases are average for the last quarter, that country’s full-year private gold consumption would come in at 336 tonnes, the lowest total since at least 1991.
Looking forward to 2010, physical gold purchases by mainland Chinese households are already running 19% ahead of India’s private demand for the first quarter.
Now, we have the Chinese New Year coming up, and gold demand is hotter-than-hot ahead of the Year of the Tiger. So, down the road, it’s likely that analysts will watch China instead of India, to make their decisions on investments in gold.
All This and Business Investment, Too!
Chinese consumers are on a golden buying spree — snapping up gold ornaments, gold bars, gold coins and gold ETFs. But it’s not just the Chinese consumer that’s buying the yellow metal.
Chinese mining companies, bullion dealers, gold associations, jewelers and traders are also catching gold fever.
One of the companies in my Red-Hot Global Small-Caps portfolio, Jinshan Gold Mines (JIN on the Toronto Stock Exchange, JINFF on the pink sheets in the U.S.), is caught up in this. Jinshan’s major shareholder is China National Gold Group. China National is going to use Jinshan as a vehicle to acquire gold mining projects outside of China, either developed projects or assets that are already in operation.
I think it’s big, bullish news for Jinshan. Do your own due diligence before you buy anything. But it goes to show that the Chinese think gold is cheap at current prices, and they have their sites set much higher.
The Missing Piece of the Puzzle — China’s National Gold Reserves
Looking at a chart of official gold holdings a few things jump out at you.

World Official Gold Holdings
as of December 2009
Country Tonnes % of reserves

United States 8,133.50 68.7
Germany 3,407.60 64.6
IMF 3,005.30 —
Italy 2,451.80 63.4
France 2,435.40 64.2
SPDR Gold Trust 1,133.62 —
China 1,054.00 1.5
Switzerland 1,040.10 28.8
Japan 764.20 2.4
Netherlands 612.50 51.7
Sources: World Gold Council/SPDR
Gold Shares/Reuters
First of all, the SPDR gold trust is huge. It’s #6 in the world, after the U.S., Germany, the IMF, Italy and France.
Second, China’s gold holdings as a percentage of its total reserves is just pathetic. And remember, this comes AFTER Beijing revealed last year that it had been buying gold since 2003, increasing its holdings from 600 to 1,054 tonnes. So far it has bought domestically, but its foreign exchange reserves — the world’s largest, at $2.27 trillion — are largely invested in U.S. government bonds. Given concerns about the U.S. economy, many expect China to buy gold internationally to diversify its assets, as other central banks have done recently.
And now the other shoe is starting to drop. China IS diversifying out of U.S. government bonds … or at least not buying as many bonds.
According to a report in the New York Times, China is buying a lot less U.S. Treasuries:
The United States Treasury estimated this week that during the first 11 months of last year China raised its holdings of Treasury securities by just $62 billion. That was less than 5 percent of the money the Treasury had to raise.
That raised its holdings to $790 billion, leaving it the largest foreign holder of Treasury securities — Japan is second at $757 billion and Britain a distant third at $278 billion. But China’s holdings at the end of November were lower than they were at the end of July.
So if China isn’t buying as many U.S. Treasuries, ask yourself, what are they buying? Foreign currencies, sure. But I think we’ll find out down the road that they’re buying more gold.

Chinese consumers are on a gold buying spree.
And if they’re not buying more gold now, well … look at that table again. China has only 1.5% of its reserves in gold. It’s going to have to put the pedal to the metal sometime.
How to Play This Move
I’m not adding gold to my subscribers’ portfolios now, because I think we’ll get lower prices in the short term. But the time to buy will come soon enough.
One thing I have in common with many Chinese is I believe it’s important to own at least some physical gold and silver for worst-case scenarios. Beyond that, the miners in the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) are nicely leveraged to the underlying price of the yellow metal, and as gold goes high, they should go higher.
Yours for trading profits,
Sean
P.S. If you haven’t checked out my blog recently, remember you can find daily commentary there at http://blogs.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/re … and-gold/. Go see what my latest chart of precious metals is telling me now.

________________________________________

About Uncommon Wisdom
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com
Uncommon Wisdom (UWD) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, and Tony Sagami. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in UWD, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in UWD are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amy Carlino, Selene Ceballo, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau, Jill Umiker, Leslie Underwood and Michelle Zausnig.
Attention editors and publishers! Uncommon Wisdom issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:
This investment news is brought to you by Uncommon Wisdom. Uncommon Wisdom is a free daily investment newsletter from Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, precious metals, natural resources, Asian and South American markets. From time to time, the authors of Uncommon Wisdom also cover other topics they feel can contribute to making you healthy, wealthy and wise. To view archives or subscribe

alexisio · 2010-01-30 10:48:14

Geez i just got a headache reading that. "WHAT" does it all mean

Peter · 2010-01-30 18:07:41

Hi
What I principally get out of it is......
China has 1000 tons of gold ;its 1.5% of its foreign reserves.
Other main players(us,germany,imf,italy,france) have gold as 65% of their foreign reserves.
China is screaming that its foreign reserves,largely in US dollars,are falling in value.
If it increased its gold holding to just 10%,That would be about 7000 tons,a little less than Americas,and twice Germanys,the two largest holdings.

And America just provided billions in arms shipments to Taiwan

Peter · 2010-02-03 07:56:52

Rick’s Picks chat room. (Click here if you’d like a seven-day pass to the room.) Regarding Gold’s strong performance yesterday, one of the more interesting explanations proffered in the room suggested that the Chinese were behind it: “I think Gold went up today because China is showing Obama the sway they hold over the dollar as retaliation to the arms deal to Taiwan announced over the weekend.” But in fact, although the dollar was weak most of the day, it did not get hit quite hard enough to account for Gold’s explosive surge. Perhaps the simpler explanation offered by another chat room denizen was closer to the truth: “Gold moves when it is ready,” he note. “It's all about time.”

goldpelican · 2010-02-08 11:12:13

Note for all - when copying articles from elsewhere on the web, please include a source link back to the original material, and limit the cut & paste to a few paragraphs. Wholesale cut & paste of entire articles should only be done with the original copyright holder's permission.

If the article is from an email list, please check the email footer for any copyright notices before pasting whole articles as well - particularly on paid subscription emails.

Essentially this helps keep the board free of potential copyright violations - sharing of articles is strongly encouraged as it gives us all access to material we may not otherwise come across, but please appreciate the copyright issues that can arise from a simple cut & paste.

Peter · 2010-02-08 11:26:37

Hi Interesting article.
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/min … ;sn=Detail
Gold may be used to influence American policy.

Peter · 2010-02-17 13:50:58

Hi
China reduces US bond holding by 5%.Now japan largest holder.
Peter
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/ar … o2642Z7Xyw

projack · 2010-02-17 15:22:31

England doubled up.

They are printing their own currency to buy another country excessively printed currency.

BUY gold and silver!!!!

silverwink · 2010-02-17 16:39:03

Euro gold hits a record high (posted at www.jsmineset.com) They do not want paper !

DSK · 2010-02-25 18:28:58

Great..was hoping some one say that...that article was ob gold-eagle about a year ago.....there is too much sut and pasting in this world

goldpelican wrote:
Note for all - when copying articles from elsewhere on the web, please include a source link back to the original material, and limit the cut & paste to a few paragraphs. Wholesale cut & paste of entire articles should only be done with the original copyright holder's permission.

If the article is from an email list, please check the email footer for any copyright notices before pasting whole articles as well - particularly on paid subscription emails.

Essentially this helps keep the board free of potential copyright violations - sharing of articles is strongly encouraged as it gives us all access to material we may not otherwise come across, but please appreciate the copyright issues that can arise from a simple cut & paste.

DSK · 2010-02-25 18:32:54

If you guys would some more interesting websites......

silverbearcafe.com
gold-eagle.com
dailyreckoning.com.au

Silver Stackers Forum

#1 2010-01-18 14:12:40

chinese gold

#2 2010-01-18 15:19:17

Re: chinese gold

#3 2010-01-18 15:27:39

Re: chinese gold

#4 2010-01-18 15:51:59

Re: chinese gold

goldpelican wrote:

#5 2010-01-18 15:57:24

Re: chinese gold

goldpelican wrote:

#6 2010-01-18 16:26:30

Re: chinese gold

#7 2010-01-18 16:48:50

Re: chinese gold

#8 2010-01-18 17:04:11

Re: chinese gold

#9 2010-01-18 17:54:51

Re: chinese gold

PETER wrote:

#10 2010-01-18 21:22:08

Re: chinese gold

PETER wrote:

#11 2010-01-22 17:16:55

Re: chinese gold

#12 2010-01-22 18:27:16

Re: chinese gold

lionfishcoin wrote:

#13 2010-01-22 19:49:23

Re: chinese gold

#14 2010-01-27 09:51:13

Re: chinese gold

#15 2010-01-30 08:44:43

Re: chinese gold

#16 2010-01-30 10:48:14

Re: chinese gold

#17 2010-01-30 18:07:41

Re: chinese gold

#18 2010-02-03 07:56:52

Re: chinese gold

#19 2010-02-08 11:12:13

Re: chinese gold

#20 2010-02-08 11:26:37

Re: chinese gold

#21 2010-02-17 13:50:58

Re: chinese gold

#22 2010-02-17 15:22:31

Re: chinese gold

#23 2010-02-17 16:39:03

Re: chinese gold

#24 2010-02-25 18:28:58

Re: chinese gold

goldpelican wrote:

#25 2010-02-25 18:32:54

Re: chinese gold

Board footer