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#1 2017-03-15 00:02:00

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,797
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Dutch General Election

Polls open in about 2 hours time.

Up until recently the PVV (populist anti-Islam) party was ahead in the polls but has now fallen behind.  The leader Gert Wilders is tagged as being the Dutch Donald Trump and his rise is seen by many in the EU as an indicator of changing sentiment in Europe away from mainstream politicians (just like Le Pen in France, Beppe Grillo in Italy)

Not only have the polls (and betting markets) been getting it wrong on Trump, Brexit etc, but in this instance it is likely that PVV can win the most seats but be no risk of being able to form government due to lack of coalition partners.  So I think in this case PVV is even more likely to do well as voters can express their protest without real risk of giving PVV government.

As of this moment bookies and betfair have PVV winning most seats at about 2.10 to 2.15 and I reckon this is cracking value.

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#2 2017-03-15 00:09:31

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
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Re: Dutch General Election

...and just like that the liquidity on betfair dried up.

Good luck to you if you got on.  I'm loaded up wink

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#3 2017-03-15 02:15:56

mmm....shiney!
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Re: Dutch General Election

There was a story on this morning's ABC News radio about it, worth a listen if you can find it.


The woolgrower's target shall be the good thriving of his flock and its pastures, and so of himself and those whose livelihoods depend on his enterprise.
"The Woolgrower's Companion", 1906.

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#4 2017-03-15 03:34:52

Bullion Baron
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Re: Dutch General Election

I put $100 on it at Sportsbet @ $2.25

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#5 2017-03-15 05:35:58

Roswell Crash Survivor
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From: Zeta Reticuli
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Re: Dutch General Election

Despite it's relatively diminutive geographical footprint, the Netherlands is the seventeenth largest economy in the world and the seventh largest in Europe using nominal GDP as a measure.

It is also one of the national governments with a healthier budget, as outstanding public debt of the Netherlands is ~61% as of late 2016. For comparison, France's public debts reach ~93% of it's GDP, Germany's debt is at around~71%.

Numerous European Union institutions, the United Nations, the European Central Bank and NATO all have important ties to the Netherlands.

Also notable is the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court, both located in the Hague.


The Roswell Crash Survivor

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#6 2017-03-15 07:17:27

gingham69
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From: W.A.
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Re: Dutch General Election

I mentioned back on one of the posts regarding Brexit that Holland would be the next so hopefully it will and if they do then watch them all go like dominoes! smile
There's going to be some big changes in Europe in the coming years but I fear it's still too late, should of happened decades ago! Go Geerty. cool

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#7 2017-03-15 08:13:33

alor
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Re: Dutch General Election

Numerous European Union institutions, the United Nations, the European Central Bank and NATO all have important ties to the Netherlands.
Also notable is the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court, both located in the Hague.

after the opposite win, those institutions would move on too.


Hear Say See -> N o t h i n g
May this stacking hobby be my blessing smile

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#8 2017-03-15 09:09:21

Bullion Baron
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Re: Dutch General Election

Geert out to $2.63 on Sportsbet, not looking good, though small market so may not be indicative and Trump moved in the same direction as early votes were counted.

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#9 2017-03-15 16:25:47

Roswell Crash Survivor
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From: Zeta Reticuli
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Re: Dutch General Election

The latest word out of Amsterdam: Gert Wilder's support completely fizzled out.

http://twitter.com/Fernande_VT/status/8 … 5432699905

Wow. Exit Polls: VVD 31, PVV/CDA/D66 19, GL 16, SP 14, PvdA 9. Premierbonus paying out #DutchElection

http://twitter.com/StuartABrown01/statu … 9597268992

C6_DDUfU0AA3a4W.jpg

Last edited by Roswell Crash Survivor (2017-03-15 16:27:18)


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#10 2017-03-15 16:30:31

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
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Re: Dutch General Election

Ouch.  Looks like it was one of the worst calls I've made publicly. Sorry about that.

PVV now out to 22.00 on betfair.

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#11 2017-03-15 16:53:26

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
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Re: Dutch General Election

What the hell.  Exit polls have been wrong before, and I still believe the polls are getting the populist support wrong because people don't always want to admit they're support.

Topped up a smidge at 48.00 tongue

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#12 2017-03-15 17:27:44

Bullion Baron
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Re: Dutch General Election

Thanks a lot BuggedOut lol

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#13 2017-03-15 17:55:32

Roswell Crash Survivor
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Re: Dutch General Election

There are approximately 14 million eligible voters in the Netherlands; we should get a clearer picture from the official results by late morning AEDT.


The Roswell Crash Survivor

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#14 2017-03-16 07:04:11

Roswell Crash Survivor
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Re: Dutch General Election

Provisional 2017 Netherlands Election Results

VVD("Party for Freedom and Democracy")
33

PVV ("Party for Freedom")
20

CDA ("Christian Democratic Appeal")
19

D66 ("Democrats 66")
19

SP ("Socialist Party")
14

GroenLinks ("GreenLeft")
14

PvdA ("Labour Party")
9

ChristenUnie ("Christian Union")
5

PvdD("Party for the Animals")
5

50Plus
4

SGP("Reformed (Calvinists) Political Party")
3

Denk(In Dutch:"Think"; also means "Equality" in Turkish)
3

FvD("Forum for Democracy")
2


The Roswell Crash Survivor

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#15 2017-03-16 07:18:32

tolly_67
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Re: Dutch General Election

Thanks for the update...interesting times.

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#16 2017-03-16 07:25:08

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
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Re: Dutch General Election

Yep.  Not even close.

That's an embarrassingly bad call by me.  Sorry BB.

Not sure why they flopped after leading the polls.  I know there was a big diplomatic barney with Turkey in the lead up to the election but I thought that might have played into the hands of PVV. 

Who's up next?  The Frenchies?

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#17 2017-03-16 07:26:06

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
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Re: Dutch General Election

If it's any consolation BB I lost a shedload more than $100. sad

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#18 2017-03-16 07:46:42

Bullion Baron
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Re: Dutch General Election

We all make a bad call from time to time. No need to apologise, we're all responsible for our own decisions smile

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#19 2017-03-16 14:54:37

Gullintanni
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From: New Zealand
Registered: 2016-06-15
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Re: Dutch General Election

BuggedOut wrote:

Yep.  Not even close.

That's an embarrassingly bad call by me.  Sorry BB.

Not sure why they flopped after leading the polls.  I know there was a big diplomatic barney with Turkey in the lead up to the election but I thought that might have played into the hands of PVV. 

Who's up next?  The Frenchies?

You have not learned my friend?
The polls in this day and age are never right.
We have seen it time and time again.
Do the opposite of what pollsters are saying.

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#20 2017-03-16 18:08:54

Ipv6Ready
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From: North Sydney
Registered: 2016-01-08
Posts: 2,261
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Re: Dutch General Election

BuggedOut wrote:

Yep.  Not even close.

That's an embarrassingly bad call by me.  Sorry BB.

Not sure why they flopped after leading the polls.  I know there was a big diplomatic barney with Turkey in the lead up to the election but I thought that might have played into the hands of PVV. 

Who's up next?  The Frenchies?

Dutch like us watched terrorism on media and their lot isn't too bad and not much to complain about.

The French people on the other hand have seen hundreds of its people being bombed, shot and run over by mainly muslim terrorist and their jobs seemingly going to refugees.

So potentially the Dutch result should be a early sign Le Pen is in with a big chance.

Last edited by Ipv6Ready (2017-03-16 20:18:18)


WTB 4 to 6 grams of pure gold. Don't care if it is coin, bar or granules. Near spot, suits anyone who has been tempted to open a certicard or just have some granules to make a ring

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#21 2017-03-16 18:38:39

sammysilver
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Re: Dutch General Election

Gullintanni wrote:
BuggedOut wrote:

Yep.  Not even close.

That's an embarrassingly bad call by me.  Sorry BB.

Not sure why they flopped after leading the polls.  I know there was a big diplomatic barney with Turkey in the lead up to the election but I thought that might have played into the hands of PVV. 

Who's up next?  The Frenchies?

You have not learned my friend?
The polls in this day and age are never right.
We have seen it time and time again.
Do the opposite of what pollsters are saying.

I'd hazard a guess that he made his own decision on the vote. The polls are are just one factor.


The price we pay for the good life is public servitude.

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#22 2017-03-16 18:58:55

tolly_67
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Re: Dutch General Election

Ipv6Ready wrote:
BuggedOut wrote:

Yep.  Not even close.

That's an embarrassingly bad call by me.  Sorry BB.

Not sure why they flopped after leading the polls.  I know there was a big diplomatic barney with Turkey in the lead up to the election but I thought that might have played into the hands of PVV. 

Who's up next?  The Frenchies?

Dutch like us watched terroism on media and their lot isn't too bad and not much to complain about.

The French people on the other hand have seen hundreds of its people being bombed, shot and run over by mainly muslim terrorist and their jobs seemingly going to refugees.

So the the Dutch result should be a early sign Le Pen is in with a big chance a big chance.

Um....sorry to point out to you that in the list of 'actual' terrorist organisations ....not the Western list...the French themselves would be in the top 10.
Violence is like a boomerang. It will eventually return to the hand that set it in motion.
So now we have to ask ourselves how would those within a terrorist organisation vote?

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#23 2017-03-16 19:36:30

Ipv6Ready
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From: North Sydney
Registered: 2016-01-08
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Re: Dutch General Election

tolly_67 wrote:
Ipv6Ready wrote:
BuggedOut wrote:

Yep.  Not even close.

That's an embarrassingly bad call by me.  Sorry BB.

Not sure why they flopped after leading the polls.  I know there was a big diplomatic barney with Turkey in the lead up to the election but I thought that might have played into the hands of PVV. 

Who's up next?  The Frenchies?

Dutch like us watched terroism on media and their lot isn't too bad and not much to complain about.

The French people on the other hand have seen hundreds of its people being bombed, shot and run over by mainly muslim terrorist and their jobs seemingly going to refugees.

So the the Dutch result should be a early sign Le Pen is in with a big chance a big chance.

Um....sorry to point out to you that in the list of 'actual' terrorist organisations ....not the Western list...the French themselves would be in the top 10.
Violence is like a boomerang. It will eventually return to the hand that set it in motion.
So now we have to ask ourselves how would those within a terrorist organisation vote?

Whats the ranking of terror organisations in the world got to do with how people in France will vote, just to clear it up I consider USA the biggest terror organisation in the world, ranking them above boko haram, saddam's iraq and obama's al qaeda

However in the real world it does not matter to the everyday french citizen who are living, seeing and feeling what is happening around them.

What does matters on the ground is that French have been bombed, shot and run over with over 100,000 hours of air time, millions and millions of views on online and print media.

Last edited by Ipv6Ready (2017-03-16 20:19:01)


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#24 2017-03-16 20:10:17

Roswell Crash Survivor
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Re: Dutch General Election

Strictly from a betting markets perspective, the lengthening of odds on LePen based on what happened in the Netherlands doesn't make rational sense.

This market movement implies that the behavior/sentiments of the French electorate has shifted against LePen based on what happened in the Dutch election; there is no data to support that assertion.

Last edited by Roswell Crash Survivor (2017-03-17 21:08:29)


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