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  • » Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

#1 2016-12-18 09:47:26

leon1998
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Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

Gold-to-Silver Ratio is around historic high; but gold price isn't. If GSR ever falls back below 40, and Silver still wanders below US$20; then you will see US$800 gold.

Simple as that.

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#2 2016-12-18 09:53:05

leon1998
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Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

Another note:

Gold-to-Crude Ratio is also around historic high. If GCR ever falls back to around 16, and Crude still wanders around US$50; then you will also see US$800 gold.

Not a good sign for gold either.

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#3 2016-12-18 09:57:03

tolly_67
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Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

This is the outside chance....the 100/1 horse that might just get up.
If the $930 does not hold then it will be $800.
A fall to such a level will wipe out many gold producers.
My dilemma is buying stocks at the $930. A push to the $800 will smash the stock price.

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#4 2016-12-18 10:23:47

leon1998
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Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

Few years ago I might have agreed with you on the theory.

But look what happened, when gold was above US$1900 peeps said the producer cost was US$1,400; then when gold fell to US$1,400, peeps said the cost was at least US$1,200.
And when gold fell to US$1,200 peeps said the cost was around US$900.

I start to doubt what is the real cost of gold mining; back to the days when gold was only US$600, how did the miners survived?

Of course, there will be a minimum for the gold miner's cost; I am just afraid that we're still NOT there yet. Since the emergence of shale oil, the energy price has dropped significantly, this will help to reduce mining cost, too.

tolly_67 wrote:

This is the outside chance....the 100/1 horse that might just get up.
If the $930 does not hold then it will be $800.
A fall to such a level will wipe out many gold producers.
My dilemma is buying stocks at the $930. A push to the $800 will smash the stock price.

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#5 2016-12-18 10:59:39

tolly_67
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Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

I suppose it will be a case of waiting and then we will find out which mining companies are swimming naked when the tide goes out. Truth is always in short supply with most corporations. ( But bullshit seems to always be readily available.)

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#6 2016-12-18 11:19:11

Noxx
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Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

Yeah I don't understand where people get this gold costs $1100 to mine price. They mined it before at much lower prices even adjusted for inflation. SOME gold mines cost that much sure and some even higher. But that's only because when the price went to ridiculous levels at like $1800 they started opening up mines or going back and mining the harder to extract gold that was abandoned in times past, because the cost of extraction was high. As the price comes down they close those fringe mines. But all the main ones will still be open. At the right price they can go back and extract it again later. Much like how there is massive amounts of oil that is out there that is capped but only extracted at certain prices. But there is still so many cheap producing oil wells that the price can keep going lower and they can still produce plenty of oil at insanely low prices.

With that being said It does appear we are headed to $800. But I'm not sure there is enough time to get there before a massive economic crash again. Rising interest rates and rising oil prices are going to massively crush the economy. And it's coming fast and soon it seems. But maybe during the short deflationary stage it will hit it very fast before shooting up like crazy. I think banks and Governments will also be to interested in doing massive buy ups again right before it does that price though. $800 is a huge psychological barrier that pretty much everyone would see as a huge indicator to buy. One thing I've repeatedly noticed with about anything for sale, either a stock, or commodity or precious metal or whatever is the big players know that physiological price and they always swoop in above it before the crowd and masses can jump in with all the money they were saving and waiting for that price.

In the end though the big players, Governments, Banks, Hedge funds and whoever will ultimately decide what price they want it at. One thing to keep in mind to though is remember the 1980 spike in silver. That was totally fake and manipulated yet it took an entire 12 years to deleverage and go back to a low that was over 10 times less than the peak. It didn't look like it would even ever go that low again to the $3 range.  But it did and it took 12 years to go to were it was supposed to be. They worked and played the market the entire time until it got there. Looking at Gold now it still appears far to high, it's just so far up there on the history chart. But again it's going to matter on what the powers that be ultimately want it at. I'm hoping for $800 to though, I'll go all in. But I'll be buying all the way down as far as they let it go. At some point there will be a bottom, and it's only up from there. Let's hope we all got enough in by that point and as close to the bottom as possible.

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#7 2016-12-18 11:58:04

leon1998
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Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

Since I will never know the real cost of gold mining, I would rather wait until some miners go belly up. I wouldn't doubt that major miners can weather the storm; in fact, most of them survived over the last few decades.

What I really want to see, is small and mid-size miners go bankrupted; that would release the BUY signal for me.

Any other suggestion?

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#8 2016-12-18 23:02:20

SilverSanchez
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From: Melbourne
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Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

Silver to $7 then


1 Peter 1
If you call on the Father, He judges without partiality, according to each one's work, conduct yourselves throughout the time of your stay here in fear; knowing that you were not redeemed with corruptible things, like silver or gold, from your aimless conduct received by tradition from your fathers, but with the precious blood of Christ, as of a lamb without blemish and without spot

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#9 2016-12-19 01:57:10

goldenspike
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From: Victoria, Australia
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Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

Regarding the cost of mining, remember that USD 400 gold was some 16 odd years ago.  Back then the cost of production in dollar terms was less.  Wages were less, cost of materials were less etc.  So you would need to look at the real cost of mining production in the late 90's to the real cost of mining production today to get an idea to compare things.

USD 800 for gold?  You can pick any number out and suggest that's where golds going.  But never buy all at 1 price, keep some powder dry for a lower price !

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#10 2016-12-19 02:00:15

SpacePete
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Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

goldenspike wrote:

Regarding the cost of mining, remember that USD 400 gold was some 16 odd years ago.  Back then the cost of production in dollar terms was less.  Wages were less, cost of materials were less etc.  So you would need to look at the real cost of mining production in the late 90's to the real cost of mining production today to get an idea to compare things.

Ore yields were probably substantially higher back then too.




___

Last edited by SpacePete (2016-12-19 02:00:58)


Catus amat piscem, sed non vult tingere plantas

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#11 2016-12-19 04:43:09

JulieW
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From: Australia
Registered: 2010-10-14
Posts: 10,997

Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

Another perspective:

While Election Day and the day after had markets in a state of panicked confusion, the jury now seems to have deliberated, and the verdict is that Trump will be good for gold in two very specific ways:

• Inflation—gold loves it. More to the point, Trump's build, build, build infrastructure plans and ambitious defense spending visions are phenomenally inflationary. But it is also possible that these policies will not lead to any long-term sustainable growth, which would in turn lead to stagflation, which is an even better friend to gold.

• Geopolitics—gold prices feed on risk, and there will be plenty of it. Even just a change in government creates geopolitical uncertainty, but in this case the situation is more extreme. Trump has indicated he will take an aggressive stance on issues central to West Asia, and in general, we're looking at a world in which the U.S. may meddle much less and cooperate much less. The power vacuums that ensue are where the uncertainty lies. From the victory of a very divisive U.S. president and the rise of right-wing parties in Europe, to Brexit, China's economic challenges and Russia's warmongering, this is the uncertainty that gold loves. Gold is always put on a premium pedestal in times of geopolitical uncertainty, even when it's not chaos.

http://oilprice.com/Metals/Gold/Trump-S … -2017.html

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#12 2016-12-19 05:04:15

tolly_67
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Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

I don't know who wrote that piece but it is clear they know sweet f.a. about gold and what is driving the price of it. Geopolitical???????????.......as we have don't have enough problems already....and gold keeps falling.
Perhaps we should ask the Bananas in Pyjamas if they have an opinion. I would be interested to hear it.

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#13 2016-12-19 05:06:25

tolly_67
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Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

SilverSanchez wrote:

Silver to $7 then

A big WOW with that call.................Now wouldn't that be interesting. .............Aussie dollar would be about 60 cent U.S. by this stage...so rounds would be back to about $4 each....sweeeeeeeeet.

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#14 2016-12-19 05:28:19

Ipv6Ready
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From: North Sydney
Registered: 2016-01-08
Posts: 2,105
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Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

goldenspike wrote:

Regarding the cost of mining, remember that USD 400 gold was some 16 odd years ago.  Back then the cost of production in dollar terms was less.  Wages were less, cost of materials were less etc.  So you would need to look at the real cost of mining production in the late 90's to the real cost of mining production today to get an idea to compare things.

USD 800 for gold?  You can pick any number out and suggest that's where golds going.  But never buy all at 1 price, keep some powder dry for a lower price !

Cost of mining comes down too. There was a shortage of skilled labour, now if we ask a miner what their next union lead bargaining will get them, when there are unemployed miners seeking their jobs, note these miners won't be "scabs" they will most likely be legit card carrying union members who have lost jobs in other mines.

So I think many things will have come down. Ie shipping and fuel is defeintel as cheap or cheaper than it was ten years ago too.

And you are

Last edited by Ipv6Ready (2016-12-19 05:32:06)


Interested in a wide variety of low premium legal tender World Silver coins, average conditions is fine.
Will pay a decent premium for a variety different silver coins in single lots, not looking 10, 20 or more of same coins.
Note I tumble these to clean them before I put it in jars for display, so I dont want to buy any rare coins for preservation.

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#15 2016-12-19 06:51:55

tolly_67
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Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

Gold mining is difficult business and 10 years is a long, long time. The difficulty they all face is to have proven resources to replace what they currently mine. How many small mining companies are still mining the same spot they were 10 or 15 years ago?
It is no different to the small prospectors in W.A. As the years go by they have to travel further and further out of places like Leonora to get gold. Sure they find it but once they clear out an area, it is back to square one. The constant battle to stay in business.

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#16 2016-12-19 06:59:35

SpacePete
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Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

This is a bit old, but look at the trend of total amount of ore processed and yield. Over time they need to process more ore for lower yield.

Top5GoldCompaniesProcessedOreampAverageYield.png

Last edited by SpacePete (2016-12-19 07:00:22)


Catus amat piscem, sed non vult tingere plantas

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#17 2016-12-19 07:03:59

tolly_67
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Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

I wonder if it is policy to process lower grade ore when prices are high and save your good stuff for the lows.

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#18 2016-12-19 07:17:59

Ipv6Ready
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Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

i think there are much more gold to be had...

Just like oil has gone deep water, I bet there are much much bigger mines in the water, technology just have to come around.

Look at diamonds Mining/dredging in South Africa who would have thought we would be getting Desmond's 1km down.

Gold unlike silver will just be there in the seabed just waiting for someone to mine it.

Last edited by Ipv6Ready (2016-12-19 07:19:03)


Interested in a wide variety of low premium legal tender World Silver coins, average conditions is fine.
Will pay a decent premium for a variety different silver coins in single lots, not looking 10, 20 or more of same coins.
Note I tumble these to clean them before I put it in jars for display, so I dont want to buy any rare coins for preservation.

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#19 2016-12-19 12:07:20

Noxx
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Registered: 2016-09-29
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Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

I'm sure there is in deep water. I bet there is insane gold reserves deep in the ocean. I mean all of the rivers flow into the ocean, and brings all the gold there from where it was in the mountains. For millions of years it's been flowing there. There has to be insane amounts of gold and reserves below the ocean floor. I don't know how it would ever be cost effective though to get it. Just getting a couple people down there is a crazy big expense and big ordeal, let alone mining it. And the mess it would make would be crazy. At the right spot price I'm sure it could happen though.

There is still massive gold mines out there on land though, and I'm sure plenty yet to be found. Pebble mine is a giant mine in Alaska. They say there is probably 100 years of gold there (and silver and copper). But because of it's location near all the salmon runs they won't let them mine it. Imagine if that mine did get approved though, gold and silver would flood the market and lower prices. They already spent hundreds of millions of dollars in research on it. I'm betting even that will get approved when the spot price is high enough and it's time 'the powers that be' want it out of the ground, then it's coming out. For now the 500 billion dollars in gold, silver and copper is going to sit there in the ground. If that mine is out there I'm sure there are more to be found like it.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/alaska-gold/

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#20 2016-12-19 12:33:31

leon1998
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Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

GSR (Gold-to-Silver-Ratio) has been at historic high; a profitable pair trade might be appropriate:

long silver AND short gold (betting on a lower GSR)

As long as Gold-to-Silver-Ratio is heading lower, you will win no matter which direction gold or silver prices go.

Noxx wrote:

I'm sure there is in deep water. I bet there is insane gold reserves deep in the ocean. I mean all of the rivers flow into the ocean, and brings all the gold there from where it was in the mountains. For millions of years it's been flowing there. There has to be insane amounts of gold and reserves below the ocean floor. I don't know how it would ever be cost effective though to get it. Just getting a couple people down there is a crazy big expense and big ordeal, let alone mining it. And the mess it would make would be crazy. At the right spot price I'm sure it could happen though.

There is still massive gold mines out there on land though, and I'm sure plenty yet to be found. Pebble mine is a giant mine in Alaska. They say there is probably 100 years of gold there (and silver and copper). But because of it's location near all the salmon runs they won't let them mine it. Imagine if that mine did get approved though, gold and silver would flood the market and lower prices. They already spent hundreds of millions of dollars in research on it. I'm betting even that will get approved when the spot price is high enough and it's time 'the powers that be' want it out of the ground, then it's coming out. For now the 500 billion dollars in gold, silver and copper is going to sit there in the ground. If that mine is out there I'm sure there are more to be found like it.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/alaska-gold/

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#21 2016-12-19 17:24:48

Peter
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From: sydney
Registered: 2009-07-27
Posts: 2,476

Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

My long term gold prediction
$3000 US.
Why?

Economic chaos.

Last edited by Peter (2016-12-19 17:37:32)


....................................
"It is no measure of health to be well-adjusted to a sick society." ~ Jiddu Krishnamurti

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#22 2016-12-19 17:41:13

SpacePete
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Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

Peter wrote:

My long term gold price
$3000 USD.
Uncertainty and economic chaos.

That could translate into several thousand AUD, but the factors that would contribute to an AUD and tax base collapse will also likely motivate the government to outlaw private gold holdings outside of approved and audited depository institutions, and of course there'd be a significant per ounce compliance fee, a government levy and owner certification requirements that would prove onerous and result in forfeiture for non compliance.

We may say that is idiotic, but you have to think like a politician.


Catus amat piscem, sed non vult tingere plantas

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#23 2016-12-19 18:28:03

Peter
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From: sydney
Registered: 2009-07-27
Posts: 2,476

Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

Well the liberal party would never do that because the poor generally don't have stashs of gold under the bed, the rich do if anyone.
And they are just a front for rich interests (reduce tax on business, reduce wages, reduce conditions,etc).


....................................
"It is no measure of health to be well-adjusted to a sick society." ~ Jiddu Krishnamurti

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#24 2016-12-19 18:43:42

SpacePete
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Registered: 2014-03-01
Posts: 13,437
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Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

Peter wrote:

Well the liberal party would never do that because the poor generally don't have stashs of gold under the bed, the rich do if anyone.
And they are just a front for rich interests (reduce tax on business, reduce wages, reduce conditions,etc).

The extremely wealthy will structure their investments to largely avoid any impact. Unsupervised gold transactions are a threat to the government's desire for total oversight and control of the financial activities of citizens. But any coordinated plan will anyway fall by the wayside in coming years as the politicians desperately scramble for any last scraps of wealth from the people to make up for a collapse in revenue. Total economic collapse will not be pretty.


Catus amat piscem, sed non vult tingere plantas

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#25 2016-12-19 19:00:51

Peter
Member
From: sydney
Registered: 2009-07-27
Posts: 2,476

Re: Long Term Gold Price Target Below US$800

How much gold is in reachable private hands anyway?
What percentage of people hold gold.1%,2%?
Not worth it.

Much easier to temporarily take all the super , of course, only until conditions improve.

But still insist that its the rich and powerful who would resist gold interference ,   and they always win.


....................................
"It is no measure of health to be well-adjusted to a sick society." ~ Jiddu Krishnamurti

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