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#1 2016-09-11 03:35:24

brisbanecoin
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2011-02-24
Posts: 724
Trades :   125 

The NFL Punting thread

Inspired by bugged outs NRL Punting thread this year I thought I might try my hand at doing an NFL punting thread for you guys (Instead of the free tipping comp)

From Buggedout's thread I would Encourage the use of Unit betting as it really is the best way to profit.  I would also suggest that in Bank roll management 1 unit should not be more then 1/40th of your entire bank roll.  I will do my best and if we keep winning then I will keep going if we start losing then I might give up big_smile

BuggedOut wrote:

Regardless, I'm pumped up about the start of a new season and am doing the analysis anyway so I don't mind sharing my thoughts.  I use a "unit system" where I place on average 5-10 units per match.  For followers a unit could be $1, $10, $100 or any amount that fits the budget (ie, it won't hurt if it is lost).

Disclaimer - Frequently I will only place bets minutes before kickoff to ensure I have up-to-the-minute information and high liquidity in betting markets.  I also sometimes will move markets with my bets so quoted prices may not always be available to thread followers.  Feel free to PM me with any specific queries if you have problems "getting on" and I'll help if I can - NO GUARANTEES


The other great thing about NFL is with so many games each week we can pick the safest ones to get are money back!  Good luck and happy punting!

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#2 2016-09-11 04:05:14

brisbanecoin
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2011-02-24
Posts: 724
Trades :   125 

Re: The NFL Punting thread

Chicago @ Houston
Houston Texans -6.5 @2.32 3 units
Lamar Miller anytime touchdown scorer @1.67 1 unit

Cincinnati @ New York Jets
New York Jets H2H @2.05 1 unit

San Diego @ Kansas City
KC H2H @1.33 2 units

Miami @ Seattle
Under 48.5 points @1.53 2 units

New York Giants @ Dallas
Over 41.5 @1.42 2 Units

Multi
Hou -4.5 @1.96
Under 48.5 Sea/Mia @1.53
Over 41.5 NYG/DAL @1.42

3 game Multi @4.25 1 Unit

Multi 2
All of the above plus:

Arizona H2H @1.31
Pittsburgh H2H @1.67
Philadelphia H2H @1.57

6 leg multi @14.71 1 Unit

Last edited by brisbanecoin (2016-09-11 06:10:03)

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#3 2016-09-12 04:00:43

brisbanecoin
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From: Australia
Registered: 2011-02-24
Posts: 724
Trades :   125 

Re: The NFL Punting thread

Chicago @ Houston
Houston Texans -6.5 @2.32 3 units Win +6.96 Units
Lamar Miller anytime touchdown scorer @1.67 1 unit Lose -1 unit

Cincinnati @ New York Jets
New York Jets H2H @2.05 1 unit Lose -1 Unit

San Diego @ Kansas City
KC H2H @1.33 2 units  Win +2.66 Units

Miami @ Seattle
Under 48.5 points @1.53 2 units Win +3.06 Units

New York Giants @ Dallas
Over 41.5 @1.42 2 Units Lose -2 units

Multi
Hou -4.5 @1.96
Under 48.5 Sea/Mia @1.53
Over 41.5 NYG/DAL @1.42

3 game Multi @4.25 1 Unit Lose -1 Unit

Multi 2
All of the above plus:

Arizona H2H @1.31
Pittsburgh H2H @1.67
Philadelphia H2H @1.57

6 leg multi @14.71 1 Unit Lose -1 Unit

Total Bet 13 Units, Total returned 12.68 Units for a net loss of -0.32 of a unit.

Overall a tough day,  Some really unlucky stat breakers.  The Jets lost to Cinci at home for the first time since 1981, really should have played it safe and taken them on the line at +1.5 as they lost in 81 by 1 point same as today.  They were unfortunate with a blown coverage to allow Cinci to kick the field goal.  On the following drive down when they could have got into field goal range the pass was in his hands and dropped.  The over on the NYG and Dal was the first game out of the last 13 that didn't hit at least 43 so statistically a bit unlucky.  I really though Dak would have been throwing a bit better against the Giants defence.  Will be reviewing the tapes to see where I went wrong as well as adjusting my betting units on multi's so we can stay ahead!  Will post bets for tomorrow mornings games soon.

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#4 2016-09-12 06:52:45

brisbanecoin
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From: Australia
Registered: 2011-02-24
Posts: 724
Trades :   125 

Re: The NFL Punting thread

Just going easy tomorrow and hopefully finish off the week in the positive!

Pittsburgh @ Washington
Pittsburgh win H2H @1.74 1 unit

LA @ San Fran
Todd Gurley anytime touchdown scorer @1.53 1 unit


Good luck and enjoy the games!

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#5 2016-09-12 09:07:39

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: The NFL Punting thread

Good luck brisbanecoin!  I only just saw this thread, but I'll keep an eye out for it now smile

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#6 2016-09-13 02:40:08

brisbanecoin
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From: Australia
Registered: 2011-02-24
Posts: 724
Trades :   125 

Re: The NFL Punting thread

Pittsburgh @ Washington
Pittsburgh win H2H @1.74 1 unit win +1.74 Units

LA @ San Fran
Todd Gurley anytime touchdown scorer @1.53 1 unit loss -1 unit

2 units invested only 1.74 Units returned.

Pittsburgh won easy,  they had won every game since 1997 so probably should have bet that harder.  Really wanted something in the Rams and 9'ers game and should have just stayed out.  Gurley played great but was the only Ram that did,  Can't expect him to score with no help.

I think in the following weeks I will be dropping the player props, lowering stakes on multi's and focusing more stakes on the sure games without trying to get something from every game.

A small loss on the week at 0.58 of a unit but nothing we can't recoup next week with a bit of tightening up.   Sorry for the loss for all that followed this week, hopefully next week will be much better! cool

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#7 2016-09-13 03:14:13

Old Codger
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Registered: 2011-05-13
Posts: 5,128

Re: The NFL Punting thread

YAWN!


"The Australian Labor Party is a democratic socialist party and has the objective of the democratic socialisation of industry, production, distribution and exchange, to the extent necessary to eliminate exploitation and other anti-social features in these fields."   -  ALP Constitution.

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#8 2016-09-15 07:08:59

brisbanecoin
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From: Australia
Registered: 2011-02-24
Posts: 724
Trades :   125 

Re: The NFL Punting thread

Alright guys thanks for checking out another week of NFL tips!  I believe the Jets should win tomorrow easily however off the back of last week not being profitable I am going a bit safer this week.

I would also suggest using a bookie who offers cash back if one leg of the multi fails as its just that extra insurance for us!  Same with the H2H bet on crown (up to $50) if the Jets score first but lose cash back (These bets are subject to which state you live in and eligibility)

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
NYJ +3.5 @1.50 2 stakes
NYJ H2H @ 1.89 (Half Stake)


Multi
New York Jets +3.5 @ 1.50
Tennessee Titans +7.5 @1.59
Carolina Panthers @1.12
Denver Broncos @1.37
Baltimore Ravens @1.34

5 leg multi at @4.90 1 stake (Use a bookie like sports bet or crown bet who offer cash back if 1 leg fails up to $50.  Split it on both if you want to go $100) 

Multi Lay the other one first to get the cash back offer
NYJ H2H @1.89
TEN H2H @3.0
CAR H2H @1.12
DEN -2.5 @1.53
BAL -6.5 @1.83

5 Leg Multi @17.78 (0.25 Stake)


Good luck!

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#9 2016-09-16 02:46:19

brisbanecoin
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2011-02-24
Posts: 724
Trades :   125 

Re: The NFL Punting thread

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
NYJ +3.5 @1.50 2 stakes Win + 3 stakes
NYJ H2H @ 1.89 (Half Stake) Win +0.94 stakes


Multi
New York Jets +3.5 @ 1.50 Win
Tennessee Titans +7.5 @1.59
Carolina Panthers @1.12
Denver Broncos @1.37
Baltimore Ravens @1.34

5 leg multi at @4.90 1 stake (Use a bookie like sports bet or crown bet who offer cash back if 1 leg fails up to $50.  Split it on both if you want to go $100) 

Multi Lay the other one first to get the cash back offer
NYJ H2H @1.89 Win
TEN H2H @3.0
CAR H2H @1.12
DEN -2.5 @1.53
BAL -6.5 @1.83

5 Leg Multi @17.78 (0.25 Stake)

Alright guys a great start to week two!  The Jets won and put us in front with 1.445 Units profit and kicked off the Multis!  Will post a few more bets for Monday after a bit more time to review but hopefully we hit the multis this week!

Last edited by brisbanecoin (2016-09-16 03:53:02)

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#10 2016-09-18 08:23:41

brisbanecoin
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From: Australia
Registered: 2011-02-24
Posts: 724
Trades :   125 

Re: The NFL Punting thread

Sorry its a bit late.. but still plenty of time to get the bets in!  I re watched a lot of footage, looked over the numbers and this week I am going to continue with the player props as they actually look safer then the a lot of games.  We have 2 multis still alive so just going with singles!  I looked at best odds at crown and sports bet and William Hill. 
1 stake unless stated otherwise

William Hill

Baltimore @ Cleveland
Longest touchdown- Baltimore @ 1.58

Sports bet

Indy @Denver
C.J. Anderson over 80.5 [email protected] (2 Stakes)

[email protected]
Ten +7.5 @ 1.59 (2 stakes)
D. Murry over 61.5 [email protected]
T. Sharpe over 47.5 [email protected] (2 Stakes)

Crown Bet

Indy @Denver
A. Luck under 250.5 @1.70

Baltimore @ Cleveland
J. Flaco over 240.5 @1.70 (2 Stakes)

Carolina @ SF
C. Newton over 35.5 Rushing @ 1.70

CIN @PIT
A. Dalton over 250.5 @1.85

[email protected]
M.Mariota Over [email protected] (3 Stakes)

KC @ HOU
A.Smith over 230.5 @1.88

NO @ NYG
Over 57.5 @2.35
O.Beckham over 85.5 @ 1.70
B. Cooks over 85.5 @2 (Half Stake)
W. Snead over 72.5 @2 (HalfStake)

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#11 2016-09-19 03:15:04

brisbanecoin
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2011-02-24
Posts: 724
Trades :   125 

Re: The NFL Punting thread

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
NYJ +3.5 @1.50 2 stakes Win + 3 stakes
NYJ H2H @ 1.89 (Half Stake) Win +0.94 stakes


Multi
New York Jets +3.5 @ 1.50 Win
Tennessee Titans +7.5 @1.59 Win
Carolina Panthers @1.12 Win
Denver Broncos @1.37 Win
Baltimore Ravens @1.34Win

5 leg multi at @4.90 1 stake (Use a bookie like sports bet or crown bet who offer cash back if 1 leg fails up to $50.  Split it on both if you want to go $100) 

Multi Lay the other one first to get the cash back offer
NYJ H2H @1.89 Win
TEN H2H @3.0 Win
CAR H2H @1.12 Win
DEN -2.5 @1.53 Win
BAL -6.5 @1.83 lost Baltimore won but only by 5



Thats the end of week two!  The Jets won and put us in front with 1.445 Units profit and kicked off the Multis on Thursday and we came so close to hitting are massive multi!  All up from this set of bets it was A profit of 5.095 Stakes!

Part 2 see below!

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#12 2016-09-19 03:37:10

brisbanecoin
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2011-02-24
Posts: 724
Trades :   125 

Re: The NFL Punting thread

Part 2 of the bets, ended up being a lot of stakes and I tried to cut it back and I shouldn't have.  The additional stakes would have seen a healthy profit instead of a disappointing one. (but hey still a profit)
William Hill

Baltimore @ Cleveland
Longest touchdown- Baltimore @ 1.58 Lost, Can't believe the ravens gave up an 85 yard rushing TD

Sports bet

Indy @Denver
C.J. Anderson over 80.5 [email protected] (2 Stakes) Lost only made it to 74, close but not quite enough.

[email protected]
Ten +7.5 @ 1.59 (2 stakes)Win + 3.18 stakes
D. Murry over 61.5 [email protected] Win +1.87 stakes
T. Sharpe over 47.5 [email protected] (2 Stakes) Lost he was solid, just not targeted only hit mid 30's

Crown Bet

Indy @Denver
A. Luck under 250.5 @1.70 Win +1.7 stakes

Baltimore @ Cleveland
J. Flaco over 240.5 @1.70 (2 Stakes) Win +3.4 stakes (this was a gift and one that I had a lot more stakes on, easily hit this before 4th quarter!)

Carolina @ SF
C. Newton over 35.5 Rushing @ 1.70 Win _1.7 stakes, This one scared me watching being up I didn't think he would risk it but we just made it!

CIN @PIT
A. Dalton over 250.5 @1.85Win +1.85 Stakes

[email protected]
M.Mariota Over [email protected] (3 Stakes)Win +5.64 stakes

KC @ HOU
A.Smith over 230.5 @1.88 Lost, badly I was expecting a lot more quick short throws to beat the pass rush, but it didn't happen

NO @ NYG
Over 57.5 @2.35Lost there is no middle ground for these teams they either score 70+ or less then 30.  Didn't go are way
O.Beckham over 85.5 @ 1.70 Win +1.7 stakes
B. Cooks over 85.5 @2 (Half Stake)lostt cooks only hit 68 yds brees through for only half what he did last week and last time these teams met.
W. Snead over 72.5 @2 (HalfStake)lost only 54 yds same as above.

Total stakes 20 total win 21.04  Total profit of 1.04 stakes

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#13 2016-09-22 09:32:08

brisbanecoin
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2011-02-24
Posts: 724
Trades :   125 

Re: The NFL Punting thread

Only player prop bets for tomorrows game! (Due to unknowns around Garoppolo playing and Gronk)


William Hill

New England vs Houston
L. Ryan over 4.5 tackles + Assist @1.83 3 stakes
M. Butler over 4.5 tackles +Assist @1.87 0.25 stakes
M. Bennett over 37.5 receiving yards. 0.25 stakes

Sports bet

New England vs Houston
W. Fuller over 63.5 receiving yards @1.87 1 Stakes
L. Blount over 75.5 rushing yards 0.25 stakes

Last edited by brisbanecoin (2016-09-22 09:33:21)

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#14 2016-09-25 11:44:47

brisbanecoin
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2011-02-24
Posts: 724
Trades :   125 

Re: The NFL Punting thread

My tips- just going 1 unit unless stated otherwise

CROWNBET
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers x2stakes
Kelvin Benjamin Receiving Yards O/U
Over 75.5 @ $1.88

Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals
CJ Anderson Rushing + Receiving Yards O/U
Over 90.5 @ $1.70
   
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints x2 stakes
Matt Ryan Passing Yards O/U
Over 295.5 @ $1.88
   
Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguarsx2 stakes
Blake Bortles Passing Yards O/U
    265.5
Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Joe Flacco Passing Yards O/U
    275.5
Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Case Keenum Passing Yards O/U
Over 212.5 @ $1.88

Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals
CJ Anderson Rushing Yards O/U
Over 70.5 @ $1.77
   
Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans
Latavius Murray Rushing + Receiving Yards O/U
Over 75.5 @ $1.70
   
Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans x2stakes
DeMarco Murray Rushing + Receiving Yards O/U
Over 85.5 @ $1.70
       
Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans
DeMarco Murray Rushing Yards O/U
Over 63.5 @ $1.77
   
New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs
Matt Forte Rushing Yards O/U
Over 73.5 @ $1.88
   
Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins
Isaiah Crowell Rushing Yards O/U
Over 60.5 @ $1.88
   
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers
Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards O/U
Over 70.5 @ $1.88
   
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Marvin Jones Receiving Yards O/U
Over 80.5 @ $2.10

SPORTSBET

Cleveland Browns At Miami Dolphins
Player B Total Tackles + Assists
Kiko Alonso Over (8.0) @ 1.82    

Cleveland Browns At Miami Dolphins
Player B Total Passing Yards
Ryan Tannehill Over (252.5) @ 1.87    

Detroit Lions At Green Bay Packers
Player A Total Passing Yards
Matthew Stafford Over (270.5) @ 1.87     1h 22m     1.87    

Washington Redskins At New York Giants
Player A Total Passing Yards
Kirk Cousins Over (278.5) @ 1.87     1h 22m     1.87    

Washington Redskins At New York Giants
Player B Total Tackles + Assists
Landon Collins Under (7.0) @ 1.78     1h 22m     1.78    

Washington Redskins At New York Giants
Player A Total Tackles + Assists
DeAngelo Hall Over (4.5) @ 1.77     1h 22m     1.77    

Arizona Cardinals At Buffalo Bills
Player A Total Receiving Yards
Larry Fitzgerald Over (71.5) @ 1.87     1h 22m     1.87    

Arizona Cardinals At Buffalo Bills x2 stakes
Player B Total Tackles + Assists
Corey Graham Under (6.5) @ 1.87     1h 22m     1.87    

Arizona Cardinals At Buffalo Bills
Player C Total Tackles + Assists
Ronald Darby Under (6.5) @ 1.87     1h 22m     1.87    

Baltimore Ravens At Jacksonville Jaguars
Player D Total Receiving Yards
Allen Robinson Under (86.5) @ 1.87     1h 22m     1.87    

Baltimore Ravens At Jacksonville Jaguars
Player A Total Tackles + Assists
C.J. Mosley Under (6.5) @ 1.87     1h 22m     1.87    

San Francisco 49ers At Seattle Seahawks
Player B Total Passing Yards
Russell Wilson Over (238.5) @ 1.87     4h 27m     1.87    

San Francisco 49ers At Seattle Seahawks
Player A Total Pass Completions
Russell Wilson Over (19.5) @ 1.87     4h 27m     1.87

Pittsburgh Steelers At Philadelphia Eagles
Player A Total Tackles + Assists
Lawrence Timmons Over (6.5) @ 1.87     4h 47m     1.87         

Pittsburgh Steelers At Philadelphia Eagles
Player B Total Receptions
Jordan Matthews Over (5.0) @ 1.77     4h 47m     1.77    

Pittsburgh Steelers At Philadelphia Eagles
Player B Total Receiving Yards
Sammie Coates Over (54.5) @ 1.87     4h 47m     1.87    

New York Jets At Kansas City Chiefs
Player C Total Tackles + Assists
Eric Berry Over (4.5) @ 2.05     4h 47m     2.05

New York Jets At Kansas City Chiefs x2 stakes
Player A Total Tackles + Assists
Marcus Gilchrist Under (5.5) @ 1.87     4h 47m     1.87    

San Diego Chargers At Indianapolis Colts x7 stakes
Player B Total Tackles + Assists
D'Qwell Jackson Under (8.5) @ 1.87     4h 47m     1.87    

Chicago Bears At Dallas Cowboys
Player B Total Receiving Yards
Eddie Royal Over (40.5) @ 1.87         

Chicago Bears At Dallas Cowboys
Player F Total Receiving Yards
Jason Witten Over (45.5) @ 1.87

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#15 2016-09-26 03:09:04

brisbanecoin
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2011-02-24
Posts: 724
Trades :   125 

Re: The NFL Punting thread

William Hill

New England vs Houston
L. Ryan over 4.5 tackles + Assist @1.83 3 stakes
M. Butler over 4.5 tackles +Assist @1.87 0.25 stakes
M. Bennett over 37.5 receiving yards. 0.25 stakes

Sports bet

New England vs Houston
W. Fuller over 63.5 receiving yards @1.87 1 Stakes
L. Blount over 75.5 rushing yards 0.25 stakes @1.87Win  0.467 Stakes


All the bets lost except one.  Houston did not come to play and were embarrassed this week.  4.75 stakes wagers 0.467 stakes returned Loss of 4.283 L.Ryan didn't have the opportunity to make or assist with the tackles he normally makes and lost by one.

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#16 2016-09-26 03:47:27

brisbanecoin
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2011-02-24
Posts: 724
Trades :   125 

Re: The NFL Punting thread

CROWNBET
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers x2stakes
Kelvin Benjamin Receiving Yards O/U
Over 75.5 @ $1.88 Lost -2

Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals
CJ Anderson Rushing + Receiving Yards O/U
Over 90.5 @ $1.70 Lost -1
   
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints x2 stakes
Matt Ryan Passing Yards O/U
Over 295.5 @ $1.88 Lost -1
   
Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguarsx2 stakes
Blake Bortles Passing Yards O/U
    265.5 Lost -2

Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Joe Flacco Passing Yards O/U
    275.5 Lost -1

Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Case Keenum Passing Yards O/U
Over 212.5 @ $1.88 Lost -1

Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals
CJ Anderson Rushing Yards O/U
Over 70.5 @ $1.77 Lost -1
   
Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans
Latavius Murray Rushing + Receiving Yards O/U
Over 75.5 @ $1.70 Lost -1
   
Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans x2stakes
DeMarco Murray Rushing + Receiving Yards O/U
Over 85.5 @ $1.70 won +3.40
       
Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans
DeMarco Murray Rushing Yards O/U
Over 63.5 @ $1.77 won +1.77
   
New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs
Matt Forte Rushing Yards O/U
Over 73.5 @ $1.88 Lost -1
   
Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins
Isaiah Crowell Rushing Yards O/U
Over 60.5 @ $1.88 won +1.88
   
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers
Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards O/U
Over 70.5 @ $1.88 Lost -1
   
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Marvin Jones Receiving Yards O/U
Over 80.5 @ $2.10 won +2.10

SPORTSBET

Cleveland Browns At Miami Dolphins
Player B Total Tackles + Assists
Kiko Alonso Over (8.0) @ 1.82     PUSH +1

Cleveland Browns At Miami Dolphins
Player B Total Passing Yards
Ryan Tannehill Over (252.5) @ 1.87     won +1.87

Detroit Lions At Green Bay Packers
Player A Total Passing Yards
Matthew Stafford Over (270.5) @ 1.87     1h 22m     1.87 won +1.87

Washington Redskins At New York Giants
Player A Total Passing Yards
Kirk Cousins Over (278.5) @ 1.87     1h 22m     1.87 won +1.87

Washington Redskins At New York Giants
Player B Total Tackles + Assists
Landon Collins Under (7.0) @ 1.78     1h 22m     1.78     Lost -1

Washington Redskins At New York Giants
Player A Total Tackles + Assists
DeAngelo Hall Over (4.5) @ 1.77     1h 22m     1.77     won +1.77

Arizona Cardinals At Buffalo Bills
Player A Total Receiving Yards
Larry Fitzgerald Over (71.5) @ 1.87     1h 22m     1.87     Lost -1

Arizona Cardinals At Buffalo Bills x2 stakes
Player B Total Tackles + Assists
Corey Graham Under (6.5) @ 1.87     1h 22m     1.87     won +3.74

Arizona Cardinals At Buffalo Bills
Player C Total Tackles + Assists
Ronald Darby Under (6.5) @ 1.87     1h 22m     1.87     VOID

Baltimore Ravens At Jacksonville Jaguars
Player D Total Receiving Yards
Allen Robinson Under (86.5) @ 1.87     1h 22m     1.87     won +1.87

Baltimore Ravens At Jacksonville Jaguars
Player A Total Tackles + Assists
C.J. Mosley Under (6.5) @ 1.87     1h 22m     1.87     won +1.87

San Francisco 49ers At Seattle Seahawks
Player B Total Passing Yards
Russell Wilson Over (238.5) @ 1.87     4h 27m     1.87     won +1.87

San Francisco 49ers At Seattle Seahawks
Player A Total Pass Completions
Russell Wilson Over (19.5) @ 1.87     4h 27m     1.87 Lost -1

Pittsburgh Steelers At Philadelphia Eagles
Player A Total Tackles + Assists
Lawrence Timmons Over (6.5) @ 1.87     4h 47m     1.87          Lost -1

Pittsburgh Steelers At Philadelphia Eagles
Player B Total Receptions
Jordan Matthews Over (5.0) @ 1.77     4h 47m     1.77     Lost -1

Pittsburgh Steelers At Philadelphia Eagles
Player B Total Receiving Yards
Sammie Coates Over (54.5) @ 1.87     4h 47m     1.87     Lost -1

New York Jets At Kansas City Chiefs
Player C Total Tackles + Assists
Eric Berry Over (4.5) @ 2.05     4h 47m     2.05 Lost -1

New York Jets At Kansas City Chiefs x2 stakes
Player A Total Tackles + Assists
Marcus Gilchrist Under (5.5) @ 1.87     4h 47m     1.87     Lost -2

San Diego Chargers At Indianapolis Colts x7 stakes
Player B Total Tackles + Assists
D'Qwell Jackson Under (8.5) @ 1.87     4h 47m     1.87     won +13.09

Chicago Bears At Dallas Cowboys
Player B Total Receiving Yards
Eddie Royal Over (40.5) @ 1.87          Lost -1

Chicago Bears At Dallas Cowboys
Player F Total Receiving Yards
Jason Witten Over (45.5) @ 1.87 Lost -1

Total stakes wagered 45 total returned 41.07 Stakes....Still one more bet to come in but will be another loss this week....Will try one more week and if I'm Not in the profit overall I will let the thread die.  Was a tough week and Team wise I felt one way and stats said the other.  Should have done some team bets but just tried to cram in to much with only a little time.

Last edited by brisbanecoin (2016-10-02 21:15:56)

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#17 2016-09-26 04:21:09

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
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Re: The NFL Punting thread

Hope you don't mind me making a couple of suggestions.

It looks like you might be over-betting a little bit.  Have a look back through your betting records and eliminate your 1 unit bets and see what your results look like then.  You might find you have a better Profit & Loss if you eliminate some of your borderline bets and only bet when you're more confident.

Another thing is you seem to be frequently getting only 1.87 on your line bets - which make up the majority of your bets.  At this price you need to hit atleast 54% strike rate to make a profit.  If you could get a slightly better price you might find yourself in profit instead of loss.

If you're betting NFL, you simply must get an account with Pinnacle Sports :-

http://www.pinnaclesports.com

They have best prices I've seen for US sports (and are very competetive on Aussie sports too!).

If I were you I'd also be looking for Vegas and Central American based bookmakers who also specialise in US sports.  They are offshore so a slight "sovereign risk" but I'd expect to get more competetive pricing with bookies trying to compete for US sports as their main business.

Betting is illegal across most of the US, but it's still big business.  The Aussie corporate bookies won't compete on US sports with Pinnacle and other US targetted bookies.

It looks to me that you've got some good knowledge of the game, you just need to tweak your bet selection and execution a bit and I reckon you'll be doing well.

Keep up the good work smile

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#18 2016-09-29 19:48:44

brisbanecoin
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Re: The NFL Punting thread

Much appreciated buggedout!

Today only tip is Miami +7.5 @1.97  statistically Miami wins 85% of there games against Cincy and the have won 91% if you add on one they lost by 3.  Both teams are pretty even playing wise so going strictly with statistics

Last edited by brisbanecoin (2016-09-29 19:49:33)

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#19 2016-10-02 09:16:12

brisbanecoin
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Re: The NFL Punting thread

Player Props:

Indianapolis Colts At Jacksonville Jaguars
Player A Total Tackles + Assists
D'Qwell Jackson Under (8.5) @ 1.87      5 stakes   

Carolina Panthers At Atlanta Falcons
Player A Total Tackles + Assists
Luke Kuechly Over (8.5) @1.87 5 stakes

2 leg Multi 2.5 stakes

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#20 2016-10-02 10:33:45

brisbanecoin
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Re: The NFL Punting thread

Alright guys had a bit more info this week and revised my system, so hopefully a better return this week.

Crown Bet
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons  X2 Stakes
Julio Jones Receiving Yards O/U
Under 90.5 @ $1.88

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons X2 Stakes
Cam Newton Passing Yards O/U
Over 252.5 @ $1.75
   
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Jets
Matt Forte Rushing Yards O/U
Over 64.5 @ $1.88
    $10.00    

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears X2 Stakes
Matthew Stafford Passing Yards O/U
Over 280.5 @ $1.88
   
Cleveland Browns @ Washington Redskins X2 stakes
Kirk Cousins Passing Yards O/U
Over 285.5 @ $1.88
   
Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens
Justin Forsett Rushing Yards O/U
Under 42.5 @ $1.88

Sports Bet

Buffalo Bills At New England Patriots
Player A Total Tackles + Assists
Corey Graham Under (6.5) @ 1.87     2h 33m

Kansas City Chiefs At Pittsburgh Steelers
Player F Total Receiving Yards
Sammie Coates Over (38.5) @ 1.87         

Denver Broncos At Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Player B Total Passing Yards
Jameis Winston Under (242.5) @ 1.87

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#21 2016-10-02 21:26:31

brisbanecoin
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Re: The NFL Punting thread

Miami +7.5 @1.97 Lost -1 stake

Player Props:

Indianapolis Colts At Jacksonville Jaguars
Player A Total Tackles + Assists
D'Qwell Jackson Under (8.5) @ 1.87      5 stakes    WIN +9.35 Stakes

Carolina Panthers At Atlanta Falcons
Player A Total Tackles + Assists
Luke Kuechly Over (8.5) @1.87 5 stakes  WIN +9.35 Stakes

2 leg Multi 2.5 stakes WIN +8.742 Stakes

Total Stakes Wagered 13.5 Total Stakes returned 27.44 For a profit of +13.94 Stakes

Last edited by brisbanecoin (2016-10-02 21:27:15)

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#22 2016-10-02 21:31:41

brisbanecoin
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Re: The NFL Punting thread

Crown Bet
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons  X2 Stakes Lost -2 stakes
Julio Jones Receiving Yards O/U
Under 90.5 @ $1.88

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons X2 Stakes Lost -2 stakes
Cam Newton Passing Yards O/U
Over 252.5 @ $1.75
   
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Jets Lost -1 stakes
Matt Forte Rushing Yards O/U
Over 64.5 @ $1.88
    $10.00    

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears X2 Stakes Lost -2 stakes
Matthew Stafford Passing Yards O/U
Over 280.5 @ $1.88
   
Cleveland Browns @ Washington Redskins X2 stakes Lost -2 stakes
Kirk Cousins Passing Yards O/U
Over 285.5 @ $1.88
   
Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens VOID
Justin Forsett Rushing Yards O/U
Under 42.5 @ $1.88

Sports Bet

Buffalo Bills At New England Patriots Win +1.87 Stakes
Player A Total Tackles + Assists
Corey Graham Under (6.5) @ 1.87     2h 33m

Kansas City Chiefs At Pittsburgh Steelers Win +1.87 Stakes
Player F Total Receiving Yards
Sammie Coates Over (38.5) @ 1.87         

Denver Broncos At Tampa Bay Buccaneers Win +1.87 Stakes
Player B Total Passing Yards
Jameis Winston Under (242.5) @ 1.87

Total 12 stakes wagered, 5.61 Stakes returned for a Net loss of -6.39 stakes

Last edited by brisbanecoin (2016-10-02 21:32:16)

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#23 2016-10-02 21:48:21

brisbanecoin
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Re: The NFL Punting thread

Alright guys, thanks for following so far!  I have been continuing to review footage, and revise my stat books as well as implementing new systems I have been working on.  This week was a bit funny as I lost every bet on Crown and Won every bet on Sports bet!  Overall a profitable week however here is the monthly summary

Week 1- Loss -0.58 Units
Week 2- Profit +6.135 Units
Week 3- Loss -8.213 Units
Week 4- Profit +7.55 Units
1st Month= Profit +4.89 Units

I had a slip in Week three where I actually had almost 50 stakes laid out where I have originally said to split into 40 stakes so will Try to avoid that in the future.  Also working on some New Models that hopefully will help me back up some Stats but Gee I can't believe Detroit losing to Chicago.  Chicago missing the Starting QB, RB, TE, Star LB and Safety with Detroit owning them statistically and Stafford dominating them the last two meets.  Didn't see that one coming at all....

I will keep going and still plenty of time left in the season and starting to get a better overall view of the teams!

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#24 2016-10-02 23:18:09

BuggedOut
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Re: The NFL Punting thread

Good work.

I sometimes find that I win with some books and lose with others on certain sports.  It can actually help you to be aware of that because some bookies are consistently better than others at pricing certain sports and if you know that, you can use pricing of sharper bookies as an input to your analysis (if that makes sense) to avoid losses and adjust stakes wink

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#25 2016-10-06 09:33:50

brisbanecoin
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Re: The NFL Punting thread

Only 1 bet for tomorrow:
Sports Bet:
Arizona Cardinals At San Francisco 49ers
Player A Total Rushing + Receiving Yds
David Johnson Over (128.5) @ 1.87 1 Stake

I don't normally explain my bets as I don't always have the time but some insight into why i picked this.
So far this year DJ has these all purpose yds:
Game 1:132           
Game 2:143           
Game 3:111
Game 4:124   

Well statistically its 50/50 Carson Palmer (Arizona's Quarter back is out) and his back up tends to throw a lot of interceptions, Therefore they should be running the ball or using quick screens a lot more then they have been.  On top of that San Francisco's Defence is missing Navorro Bowman (Inside linebacker). When he went down, San fran went from leading the game to letting Dallas run all over them.   He would also be the one defending the quick screen which should mean a few extra meters for DJ.  So good luck tomorrow and hopefully we Smash it out!

Also get on before Monday is
Philadelphia Eagles At Detroit Lions
Big Win Little Win
Philadelphia Eagles 14+ Pts @ 6.20 1 stake

Chicago actually dominated Detroit despite missing key players in important positions and right now Phili is a much better team then Chicago on both sides of the ball. They have won there last three games by 19,15 and 31 as well as coming off the bye week which gave them extra time to rest and prepare!

Will be more for next week, will update Sunday once the markets come out!

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