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#1 2016-09-08 16:58:17

willrocks
Silver Stacker
From: Yesterday
Registered: 2012-05-10
Posts: 7,629
Trades :   29 

Australia - 25 years without recession

I wonder how much longer we can keep economic growth going?

Last edited by willrocks (2016-09-08 17:01:11)


"You can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality." - Ayn Rand

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#2 2016-09-08 17:10:16

House
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From: Stack City
Registered: 2012-04-30
Posts: 9,635
Trades :   232 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Is that a rhetorical question? Keen to hear your answer given all the doom and gloom threads you've been posting for many years.


WBI- 41.16

"There's no point in paying a mortgage on an asset that is going to fall by 40 per cent or so in the next few years". Steve Keen, 2008.
Stacker FAQ'S. New threads welcome- http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … faq-s.html

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#3 2016-09-08 18:03:01

willrocks
Silver Stacker
From: Yesterday
Registered: 2012-05-10
Posts: 7,629
Trades :   29 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

House wrote:

Is that a rhetorical question? Keen to hear your answer given all the doom and gloom threads you've been posting for many years.

I think we've avoided a recession by riding the commodity boom and importing wealth from immigration. There's already clear signs the commodity run is over. Australia's boom is also a reflection of rising personal/household debt levels. Not long ago mortgage debt was 25% of bank books, it's now about 66%.

I'm also keen to get your input given your incessantly optimistic outlook on real estate.


"You can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality." - Ayn Rand

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#4 2016-09-08 18:10:56

Golightly
Silver Stacker
From: The end of space and time
Registered: 2013-10-04
Posts: 1,405
Trades :   22 
Website

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

willrocks wrote:
House wrote:

Is that a rhetorical question? Keen to hear your answer given all the doom and gloom threads you've been posting for many years.

I think we've avoided a recession by riding the commodity boom and importing wealth from immigration. There's already clear signs the commodity run is over. Australia's boom is also a reflection of rising personal/household debt levels. Not long ago mortgage debt was 25% of bank books, it's now about 66%.

I'm also keen to get your input given your incessantly optimistic outlook on real estate.



I don't see how you can call it economic growth when it's all been done on debt.

It's more like economic theft from future generations.


If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.

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#5 2016-09-08 18:33:57

SilverDJ
Member
From: Australia
Registered: 2014-11-01
Posts: 2,528

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

I wonder what Paul Keating has to say on the current state of affairs?

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#6 2016-09-08 18:36:39

SteveS
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From: Brisbane
Registered: 2016-08-06
Posts: 955
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

SilverDJ wrote:

I wonder what Paul Keating has to say on the current state of affairs?

What he always says, i.e. "I am the cleverest person in the world. Everybody else is wrong and a bloody idiot."

Last edited by SteveS (2016-09-08 18:36:52)


I intend to live forever. So far, so good.

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#7 2016-09-08 18:55:17

Old Codger
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Registered: 2011-05-13
Posts: 5,128

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

"I wonder what Paul Keating has to say on the current state of affairs?"


Komrade paul would claim 100% credit for any good stuff in the past 25 years, or was that 125 years?

Whatever!

OC


"The Australian Labor Party is a democratic socialist party and has the objective of the democratic socialisation of industry, production, distribution and exchange, to the extent necessary to eliminate exploitation and other anti-social features in these fields."   -  ALP Constitution.

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#8 2016-09-08 19:11:59

SilverDJ
Member
From: Australia
Registered: 2014-11-01
Posts: 2,528

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

SteveS wrote:
SilverDJ wrote:

I wonder what Paul Keating has to say on the current state of affairs?

What he always says, i.e. "I am the cleverest person in the world. Everybody else is wrong and a bloody idiot."

He'd get along well on this forum!  big_smile

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#9 2016-09-08 19:12:02

Clawhammer
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From: Gone Fishin'
Registered: 2010-02-26
Posts: 9,506
Trades :   

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Australia - 25 years without recession

Q.E.D. ;  we must have good politicians and bureaucrats running things


Specialisation is for insects

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#10 2016-09-08 19:14:49

SpacePete
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Registered: 2014-03-01
Posts: 13,437
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Australia - 25 years of increasing chocolate rations.


Catus amat piscem, sed non vult tingere plantas

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#11 2016-09-08 19:37:39

SteveS
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From: Brisbane
Registered: 2016-08-06
Posts: 955
Trades :   

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Australia:

The World's One-Stop Shop For Dirt - "If you can dig it up, we got it!"


I intend to live forever. So far, so good.

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#12 2016-09-08 19:48:15

House
Moderator/ Legend
From: Stack City
Registered: 2012-04-30
Posts: 9,635
Trades :   232 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

willrocks wrote:
House wrote:

Is that a rhetorical question? Keen to hear your answer given all the doom and gloom threads you've been posting for many years.

I think we've avoided a recession by riding the commodity boom and importing wealth from immigration. There's already clear signs the commodity run is over. Australia's boom is also a reflection of rising personal/household debt levels. Not long ago mortgage debt was 25% of bank books, it's now about 66%.

I'm also keen to get your input given your incessantly optimistic outlook on real estate.

Plenty of commodities still holding strong- record iron ore cargo in August of 42.875Mt (+9% YoY), coking coal prices making crazy gainz and copper is up from 6 year lows. As I've mentioned before, Aus is transitioning into being a services country. Around 60% of the GDP apparently. Mining is only about 7%.

What year were they at 25%?

Hardly 'incessantly optimistic'. And definitely nowhere near as incessant as your negative assertions wink I just respond to sweeping and assumptive statements with facts and pretty graphs. Doubt you'd find a post where I've said property prices will keep heading up. Speaking of which, I really need to update the most realistic graph

N6GaTCh.jpg


WBI- 41.16

"There's no point in paying a mortgage on an asset that is going to fall by 40 per cent or so in the next few years". Steve Keen, 2008.
Stacker FAQ'S. New threads welcome- http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … faq-s.html

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#13 2016-09-08 19:52:02

willrocks
Silver Stacker
From: Yesterday
Registered: 2012-05-10
Posts: 7,629
Trades :   29 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

So do you believe Australia can avoid a recession in the coming decade?


"You can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality." - Ayn Rand

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#14 2016-09-08 20:15:46

House
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From: Stack City
Registered: 2012-04-30
Posts: 9,635
Trades :   232 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Why look so far into the future? It obviously gets more and more likely with each passing year given 25 years of recession free frivolity. Given the silly definition of a technical recession, it shouldn't be too difficult within the next 10 years .


WBI- 41.16

"There's no point in paying a mortgage on an asset that is going to fall by 40 per cent or so in the next few years". Steve Keen, 2008.
Stacker FAQ'S. New threads welcome- http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … faq-s.html

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#15 2016-09-08 20:24:41

Ipv6Ready
Silver Stacker
From: North Sydney
Registered: 2016-01-08
Posts: 2,214
Trades :   39 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

willrocks wrote:

So do you believe Australia can avoid a recession in the coming decade?


No because it is not normal to have 25 years recession free
Yes because as the world comes out of this economic funk we will have another resource boom with gas added this time.

Likely chances that we could have both at the same time... Increasing wealth and increasing unemployment.

So some will have a personal shtf and other will ride the boom


WTB 4 to 6 grams of pure gold. Don't care if it is coin, bar or granules. Near spot, suits anyone who has been tempted to open a certicard or just have some granules to make a ring

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#16 2016-09-08 23:34:39

BBQ
Member
From: Melbourne
Registered: 2010-08-29
Posts: 937
Trades :   

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/austral … ebt-to-gdp
we are all forgetting the sexy companion to paper prosperity.

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#17 2016-09-09 00:47:45

JulieW
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2010-10-14
Posts: 11,101

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Caller:- 'Thanks to my financial adviser I now have a small fortune.

Presenter:  That's very interesting, tell me more.

Pause.................


Mind you, I started off with a large fortune.'

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#18 2016-09-09 01:36:42

House
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From: Stack City
Registered: 2012-04-30
Posts: 9,635
Trades :   232 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Ipv6Ready wrote:

No because it is not normal to have 25 years recession free

How many years were between the 2 previous recessions?

You've got 3 months not to be wrong yet again, Daily Reckoning http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/leadge … avoidable/


WBI- 41.16

"There's no point in paying a mortgage on an asset that is going to fall by 40 per cent or so in the next few years". Steve Keen, 2008.
Stacker FAQ'S. New threads welcome- http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … faq-s.html

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#19 2016-09-09 04:25:12

TheEnd
Member
Registered: 2011-10-06
Posts: 2,604
Trades :   

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Surely it will all depend on which way interest rates will go in the future for the U.S.

MSM has been speculating lately about some posititve numbers coming out of the U.S lately?

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#20 2016-09-09 04:37:27

House
Moderator/ Legend
From: Stack City
Registered: 2012-04-30
Posts: 9,635
Trades :   232 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession


WBI- 41.16

"There's no point in paying a mortgage on an asset that is going to fall by 40 per cent or so in the next few years". Steve Keen, 2008.
Stacker FAQ'S. New threads welcome- http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … faq-s.html

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#21 2016-09-09 04:52:40

TheEnd
Member
Registered: 2011-10-06
Posts: 2,604
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

House wrote:

I'm feeling good tonight House.

I just landed a new full time job starting monday.

$32 per hour!!!

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#22 2016-09-09 04:55:37

House
Moderator/ Legend
From: Stack City
Registered: 2012-04-30
Posts: 9,635
Trades :   232 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

TheEnd wrote:
House wrote:

I'm feeling good tonight House.

I just landed a new full time job starting monday.

$32 per hour!!!

That's great. Let's come back to this in a months time and see how you're going.


WBI- 41.16

"There's no point in paying a mortgage on an asset that is going to fall by 40 per cent or so in the next few years". Steve Keen, 2008.
Stacker FAQ'S. New threads welcome- http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … faq-s.html

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#23 2016-09-09 05:45:49

BuggedOut
Member
From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,777
Trades :   37 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

TheEnd wrote:
House wrote:

I'm feeling good tonight House.

I just landed a new full time job starting monday.

$32 per hour!!!

Congrats.  Hope it turns out well for you and the p*sstakes about your employment status will stop.

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#24 2016-09-09 16:48:00

Skyrocket
Silver Stacker
From: Melbourne
Registered: 2014-07-20
Posts: 4,867
Trades :   36 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

TheEnd wrote:
House wrote:

I'm feeling good tonight House.

I just landed a new full time job starting monday.

$32 per hour!!!


$32 per hour doing what?

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#25 2016-09-09 18:30:29

Ipv6Ready
Silver Stacker
From: North Sydney
Registered: 2016-01-08
Posts: 2,214
Trades :   39 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

$32 an hour full time should be so much more than anything benefit can give him and fulfilling.

good luck and work hard.


WTB 4 to 6 grams of pure gold. Don't care if it is coin, bar or granules. Near spot, suits anyone who has been tempted to open a certicard or just have some granules to make a ring

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