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#51 2016-11-03 15:19:21

willrocks
Silver Stacker
From: Yesterday
Registered: 2012-05-10
Posts: 7,628
Trades :   29 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

House wrote:

House prices during the recession;

According to RP Data CEO Cameron Kusher, Australian capital city house prices peaked in June 1990 at $125,000 and fell 3.2 per cent by the following April, before returning to the peak in July.

The collapse was far more pronounced in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth. In Sydney, house prices peaked in at a median of $159,000 in June 1990 and fell 8.8 per cent to an April 1991 low, before recovering in September.

Melbourne house prices also peaked in June at $135,000 but took far longer to fall 8.1 per cent, only reaching a low of $124,000 in March 1993, and recovering in December 1996.

Perth prices fell a whopping 10.3 per cent between a February 1991 high of $92,000 and a December 1991 low, and took a full 12 months to recover.

No big surprises there. From 1990 interest rates dropped from ~17% to ~9% in three years. ( see: http://www.loansense.com.au/historical-rates.html )


"You can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality." - Ayn Rand

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#52 2017-01-05 03:25:07

House
Moderator/ Legend
From: Stack City
Registered: 2012-04-30
Posts: 9,635
Trades :   232 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

House wrote:
House wrote:
willrocks wrote:

I think we've avoided a recession by riding the commodity boom and importing wealth from immigration. There's already clear signs the commodity run is over. Australia's boom is also a reflection of rising personal/household debt levels. Not long ago mortgage debt was 25% of bank books, it's now about 66%.

I'm also keen to get your input given your incessantly optimistic outlook on real estate.

Plenty of commodities still holding strong- record iron ore cargo in August of 42.875Mt (+9% YoY), coking coal prices making crazy gainz and copper is up from 6 year lows. As I've mentioned before, Aus is transitioning into being a services country. Around 60% of the GDP apparently. Mining is only about 7%.

After increasing by a revised +2.1 per cent in September, the Reserve Bank of Australia's Index of Commodity Prices soared by +9.5 per cent in October.

This means that not only will national income rebound in Q3, it may positively rip in Q4.

The index is now up by +29 per cent since January to be +16 per cent higher than a year ago.

In Aussie dollar terms, the index is up by +19.9 per cent since December to be +7.8 per cent higher than a year ago.

In fact using spot prices for the bulk commodities, the Index of Commodity Prices is a thumping +34.2 per cent higher than a year ago!
Pete Wargent



Well would ya look at that, commodity run still pumping tongue

Yv9Tvlv.jpg



D5IcHBM.jpg



And for TheEnd
huG2hQB.jpg


WBI- 41.16

"There's no point in paying a mortgage on an asset that is going to fall by 40 per cent or so in the next few years". Steve Keen, 2008.
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#53 2017-01-05 04:26:34

willrocks
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Registered: 2012-05-10
Posts: 7,628
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

House wrote:

Well would ya look at that, commodity run still pumping

AUD still dropping against USD?


"You can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality." - Ayn Rand

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#54 2017-01-05 16:31:41

House
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From: Stack City
Registered: 2012-04-30
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

willrocks wrote:
House wrote:

Well would ya look at that, commodity run still pumping

AUD still dropping against USD?

Nope

o4hFbN1.jpg


WBI- 41.16

"There's no point in paying a mortgage on an asset that is going to fall by 40 per cent or so in the next few years". Steve Keen, 2008.
Stacker FAQ'S. New threads welcome- http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … faq-s.html

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#55 2017-01-05 16:53:15

tolly_67
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Registered: 2010-05-17
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

As Con the Fruiterer would say....couple a days....then we'll see the direction of the currency.

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#56 2017-01-05 17:05:28

willrocks
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From: Yesterday
Registered: 2012-05-10
Posts: 7,628
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Cherry picking the graph period? 1 AUD was equal to 1.10 USD


"You can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality." - Ayn Rand

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#57 2017-01-05 17:17:59

House
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From: Stack City
Registered: 2012-04-30
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

willrocks wrote:

Cherry picking the graph period? 1 AUD was equal to 1.10 USD

Not really. You queried if it was 'still' dropping. The graph simply shows it's no longer dropping.

When was 1 AUD equal to 1.10USD?


WBI- 41.16

"There's no point in paying a mortgage on an asset that is going to fall by 40 per cent or so in the next few years". Steve Keen, 2008.
Stacker FAQ'S. New threads welcome- http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … faq-s.html

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#58 2017-01-05 17:43:53

bordsilver
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From: The rocks
Registered: 2012-05-23
Posts: 9,583
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

House wrote:
willrocks wrote:

Cherry picking the graph period? 1 AUD was equal to 1.10 USD

Not really. You queried if it was 'still' dropping. The graph simply shows it's no longer dropping.

When was 1 AUD equal to 1.10USD?

Pre-1982 tongue

Probably means ~February 2012 (average over that month was 1.08 from memory and with daily variations possibly went above 1.10 for a few days).


The only good tax is a repealed tax.

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#59 2017-01-05 17:47:15

bordsilver
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From: The rocks
Registered: 2012-05-23
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Updating one of the graphs I've posted in the past, Real net national disposable income per capita (which is a much better measure of per person economic welfare than real GDP per capita) is still falling. Nearly 5 years and still counting now.

6824_rnndi.png


The only good tax is a repealed tax.

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#60 2017-01-05 18:26:49

SpacePete
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

^^^ That's a depressing chart


Catus amat piscem, sed non vult tingere plantas

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#61 2017-01-29 17:58:34

House
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Heading towards the world record for longest run without technical recession smile Make it through this year and we'll beat the Netherlands that holds the record for 103 quarters of consecutive growth.


WBI- 41.16

"There's no point in paying a mortgage on an asset that is going to fall by 40 per cent or so in the next few years". Steve Keen, 2008.
Stacker FAQ'S. New threads welcome- http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … faq-s.html

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#62 2017-01-29 18:13:10

radiobirdman
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Registered: 2011-04-25
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Government spending is the only thing that has kept us out of recession, we are so far in debt its not funny
For every boom there is a bust, and ours is going to hurt when it happens

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#63 2017-01-29 19:37:29

SpacePete
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Registered: 2014-03-01
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

radiobirdman wrote:

Government spending is the only thing that has kept us out of recession, we are so far in debt its not funny
For every boom there is a bust, and ours is going to hurt when it happens

Well, I was told by the nations' treasurer that there is good debt and there is bad debt. For the last few years it has been good debt. Prior to that it was bad debt.

I think I'll go by the adage: the bigger they come, the harder they fall.  When this implodes it will be more spectacular than a Michael Bay film. lol


Catus amat piscem, sed non vult tingere plantas

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#64 2017-02-02 23:55:29

House
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Delicious big_smile

The biggest surge in coal and iron ore prices in almost seven years has delivered Australia its largest trade surplus on record, injecting a major boost to the federal budget and soothing fears of a technical recession in the fourth quarter.

In a result that significantly beat economists' expectations and spurred speculation of Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes later this year, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday that the surplus widened in December to $3.51 billion, the most in records dating back to July 1971. The November surplus was revised to $2.04 billion, almost double the initial estimate.

The strong trade result - which most economists expect will have continued in January given still-robust commodity prices and a lack of disruptive cyclones – sent the Australian dollar rocketing to its highest level in almost three months.

AFR


WBI- 41.16

"There's no point in paying a mortgage on an asset that is going to fall by 40 per cent or so in the next few years". Steve Keen, 2008.
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#65 2017-02-03 00:03:41

SpacePete
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Registered: 2014-03-01
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

House wrote:

Delicious big_smile

AFR

#IdeasBoom  coal!


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#66 2017-02-03 00:52:42

bubblebobble2
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From: Seedeneey
Registered: 2012-02-06
Posts: 1,037
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Sounds like Joe Hockey.... where is this 'fat-cat' now by the way? We should've kept him as treasurer and gold will sky rocket !!!

House wrote:

Delicious big_smile

The biggest surge in coal and iron ore prices in almost seven years has delivered Australia its largest trade surplus on record, injecting a major boost to the federal budget and soothing fears of a technical recession in the fourth quarter.

In a result that significantly beat economists' expectations and spurred speculation of Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes later this year, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday that the surplus widened in December to $3.51 billion, the most in records dating back to July 1971. The November surplus was revised to $2.04 billion, almost double the initial estimate.

The strong trade result - which most economists expect will have continued in January given still-robust commodity prices and a lack of disruptive cyclones – sent the Australian dollar rocketing to its highest level in almost three months.

AFR

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#67 2017-02-03 01:10:26

aleks
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From: Karl-Marx-Allee
Registered: 2010-10-14
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

We arsed it. Well done straya.


Only you have your best financial interest at heart, be your own guru

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#68 2017-02-04 10:12:46

Lovey80
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From: Sunshine Coast, QLD
Registered: 2011-05-08
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

House wrote:

Heading towards the world record for longest run without technical recession smile Make it through this year and we'll beat the Netherlands that holds the record for 103 quarters of consecutive growth.

We may well be headed for the longest run without a technical recession but for sure we haven't gone 103 quarters with consecutive growth.

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#69 2017-02-04 19:16:57

bordsilver
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From: The rocks
Registered: 2012-05-23
Posts: 9,583
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Lovey80 wrote:
House wrote:

Heading towards the world record for longest run without technical recession smile Make it through this year and we'll beat the Netherlands that holds the record for 103 quarters of consecutive growth.

We may well be headed for the longest run without a technical recession but for sure we haven't gone 103 quarters with consecutive growth.

Guessing they're referring to the ABS "Trend growth" chain volume measure for GDP growth. Original tends to go negative every March quarter, while the Seasonally Adjusted series has had about 3 negatives.

According to the last estimates (through to the September quarter 2016) there's been 101 consecutive non-negative quarters of growth since the Jun-1991 quarter. Hence, if continues to the end of 2016-17 financial year, there'll be 104 quarters.

Last edited by bordsilver (2017-02-04 19:17:28)


The only good tax is a repealed tax.

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#70 2017-02-04 21:50:23

Lovey80
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From: Sunshine Coast, QLD
Registered: 2011-05-08
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

We have had quarters of negative growth though. It's why Rudd pissed billions of dollars up the wall during the GFC just to avoid that second quarter. Pretty sure we've had one recently also.

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#71 2017-02-04 22:00:41

House
Moderator/ Legend
From: Stack City
Registered: 2012-04-30
Posts: 9,635
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Indeed we have... Last quarter for example. Only three before then since the actual recession since '91. Still no technical recession in those 101 quarters and looking like we'll get that record big_smile


WBI- 41.16

"There's no point in paying a mortgage on an asset that is going to fall by 40 per cent or so in the next few years". Steve Keen, 2008.
Stacker FAQ'S. New threads welcome- http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … faq-s.html

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#72 2017-02-04 22:11:53

radiobirdman
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Registered: 2011-04-25
Posts: 2,300
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Any c$ntry that's in debt up to its eyeballs shouldn't go on about "25 years" without a recession

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#73 2017-02-04 22:20:59

SpacePete
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Registered: 2014-03-01
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Its private debt.


Catus amat piscem, sed non vult tingere plantas

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#74 2017-02-04 22:21:41

House
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From: Stack City
Registered: 2012-04-30
Posts: 9,635
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

radiobirdman wrote:

Any c$ntry that's in debt up to its eyeballs shouldn't go on about "25 years" without a recession

Depends on how high your eyeballs are. Is there a country that isn't in debt?! We're #14 for external debt.


WBI- 41.16

"There's no point in paying a mortgage on an asset that is going to fall by 40 per cent or so in the next few years". Steve Keen, 2008.
Stacker FAQ'S. New threads welcome- http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … faq-s.html

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#75 2017-02-04 22:22:38

radiobirdman
Silver Stacker
Registered: 2011-04-25
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

SpacePete wrote:

Its private debt.

government debt is now private debt, spot on as always spaceman

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