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#26 2016-09-10 03:49:17

TheEnd
Member
Registered: 2011-10-06
Posts: 2,604
Trades :   

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Skyrocket wrote:
TheEnd wrote:
House wrote:

I'm feeling good tonight House.

I just landed a new full time job starting monday.

$32 per hour!!!


$32 per hour doing what?

Prepping and painting big electrical transformers apparently.

Just got home from doing a 'work at heights' course.

That cost me $240.

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#27 2016-09-10 04:20:15

Skyrocket
Silver Stacker
From: Melbourne
Registered: 2014-07-20
Posts: 4,867
Trades :   36 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

TheEnd wrote:
Skyrocket wrote:

$32 per hour doing what?

Prepping and painting big electrical transformers apparently.

Just got home from doing a 'work at heights' course.

That cost me $240.


That's a good hourly wage.  Good luck with it!

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#28 2016-09-17 01:13:47

House
Moderator/ Legend
From: Stack City
Registered: 2012-04-30
Posts: 9,635
Trades :   232 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

House prices during the recession;

According to RP Data CEO Cameron Kusher, Australian capital city house prices peaked in June 1990 at $125,000 and fell 3.2 per cent by the following April, before returning to the peak in July.

The collapse was far more pronounced in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth. In Sydney, house prices peaked in at a median of $159,000 in June 1990 and fell 8.8 per cent to an April 1991 low, before recovering in September.

Melbourne house prices also peaked in June at $135,000 but took far longer to fall 8.1 per cent, only reaching a low of $124,000 in March 1993, and recovering in December 1996.

Perth prices fell a whopping 10.3 per cent between a February 1991 high of $92,000 and a December 1991 low, and took a full 12 months to recover.


WBI- 41.16

"There's no point in paying a mortgage on an asset that is going to fall by 40 per cent or so in the next few years". Steve Keen, 2008.
Stacker FAQ'S. New threads welcome- http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … faq-s.html

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#29 2016-09-17 01:22:54

Skyrocket
Silver Stacker
From: Melbourne
Registered: 2014-07-20
Posts: 4,867
Trades :   36 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

House wrote:

House prices during the recession;

According to RP Data CEO Cameron Kusher, Australian capital city house prices peaked in June 1990 at $125,000 and fell 3.2 per cent by the following April, before returning to the peak in July.

The collapse was far more pronounced in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth. In Sydney, house prices peaked in at a median of $159,000 in June 1990 and fell 8.8 per cent to an April 1991 low, before recovering in September.

Melbourne house prices also peaked in June at $135,000 but took far longer to fall 8.1 per cent, only reaching a low of $124,000 in March 1993, and recovering in December 1996.

Perth prices fell a whopping 10.3 per cent between a February 1991 high of $92,000 and a December 1991 low, and took a full 12 months to recover.


House, what's your opinion on how far (if any) medium house prices in Melb/Sydney will fall in the next GFC/recession when it happens?

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#30 2016-09-17 02:13:01

JulieW
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2010-10-14
Posts: 11,101

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

I'll step in and say 15-25% in rural areas, and 5-15% in urban areas.

And near 40% for high rise units.

This would be after a continuing 10% roughly, increase in prices to around mid 2018, followed by a 12 - 18 month dip, followed by a bubble before a large retracing to current prices sometime in latter part of the next decade, when it all starts again around 2030.

Assuming WW3 doesn't interfere.

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#31 2016-09-17 03:27:27

TheEnd
Member
Registered: 2011-10-06
Posts: 2,604
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

JulieW wrote:

I'll step in and say 15-25% in rural areas, and 5-15% in urban areas.

And near 40% for high rise units.

This would be after a continuing 10% roughly, increase in prices to around mid 2018, followed by a 12 - 18 month dip, followed by a bubble before a large retracing to current prices sometime in latter part of the next decade, when it all starts again around 2030.

Assuming WW3 doesn't interfere.

Julie how can you think so far ahead when the U.S economy is on the brink of collapsing.

There WILL be a gfc 2 its just a matter of when not if?

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#32 2016-09-17 03:42:42

House
Moderator/ Legend
From: Stack City
Registered: 2012-04-30
Posts: 9,635
Trades :   232 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

And what has that obsessive worrying for the last 5 years done for you? The US won't collapse, Aus won't be too hard hit in GFC 2/recession, house prices won't plummet.

Sky, I think I said before that the Syd and Melb medians wouldn't fall lower than 12.6%.


WBI- 41.16

"There's no point in paying a mortgage on an asset that is going to fall by 40 per cent or so in the next few years". Steve Keen, 2008.
Stacker FAQ'S. New threads welcome- http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … faq-s.html

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#33 2016-09-17 03:52:51

TheEnd
Member
Registered: 2011-10-06
Posts: 2,604
Trades :   

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

House wrote:

And what has that obsessive worrying for the last 5 years done for you? The US won't collapse, Aus won't be too hard hit in GFC 2/recession, house prices won't plummet.

Sky, I think I said before that the Syd and Melb medians wouldn't fall lower than 12.6%.

20,000,000,000 Trillion dollars is an aweful amount of debt House.

Someday soon the U.S will have to pay it back.

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#34 2016-09-17 03:55:12

Stoic Phoenix
Silver Stacker
From: little things big things grow.
Registered: 2014-11-12
Posts: 2,952
Trades :   183 
Website

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

TheEnd wrote:

20,000,000,000 Trillion dollars is an aweful amount of debt House.

Someday soon the U.S will have to pay it back.

Don't you mean 20 Trillion?

Last edited by Stoic Phoenix (2016-09-17 03:55:39)


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#35 2016-09-17 04:04:07

Davros10
Silver Stacker
From: Canberra
Registered: 2015-02-22
Posts: 161
Trades :   17 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

plus unfunded liabilities = 50 trillion


"Last night as I was sleeping, I dreamt-marvelous error!-
that I had a beehive here inside my heart.
And the golden bees were making white combs
and sweet honey from my old failures"         Antonio Machado

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#36 2016-09-17 04:07:31

TheEnd
Member
Registered: 2011-10-06
Posts: 2,604
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Stoic Phoenix wrote:
TheEnd wrote:

20,000,000,000 Trillion dollars is an aweful amount of debt House.

Someday soon the U.S will have to pay it back.

Don't you mean 20 Trillion?

Yes I meant 20 Trillion.

What did i get wrong?

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#37 2016-09-17 04:14:13

House
Moderator/ Legend
From: Stack City
Registered: 2012-04-30
Posts: 9,635
Trades :   232 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

TheEnd wrote:
House wrote:

And what has that obsessive worrying for the last 5 years done for you? The US won't collapse, Aus won't be too hard hit in GFC 2/recession, house prices won't plummet.

Sky, I think I said before that the Syd and Melb medians wouldn't fall lower than 12.6%.

20,000,000,000 Trillion dollars is an aweful amount of debt House.

Someday soon the U.S will have to pay it back.

$5tr, $10tr, $15tr and $19.5tr were also an awful amount of debt.

And before Errol mentions it, don't forget about the $500tr derivatives timebomb wink

TheEnd wrote:
Stoic Phoenix wrote:
TheEnd wrote:

20,000,000,000 Trillion dollars is an aweful amount of debt House.

Someday soon the U.S will have to pay it back.

Don't you mean 20 Trillion?

Yes I meant 20 Trillion.

What did i get wrong?

Your understanding of maths.

The way you wrote it would be similar to writing '100 hundreds'. Which is 10,000.


WBI- 41.16

"There's no point in paying a mortgage on an asset that is going to fall by 40 per cent or so in the next few years". Steve Keen, 2008.
Stacker FAQ'S. New threads welcome- http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … faq-s.html

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#38 2016-09-17 05:48:39

TheEnd
Member
Registered: 2011-10-06
Posts: 2,604
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Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

My point is that the U.S are going to default sometime soon and it wont be pretty!

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#39 2016-09-17 06:27:58

long88
Member
From: Melbourne
Registered: 2012-06-19
Posts: 763
Trades :   13 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

they just print the money.

how could us default ?

TheEnd wrote:

My point is that the U.S are going to default sometime soon and it wont be pretty!

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#40 2016-09-17 12:30:59

Old Codger
Silver Stacker
Registered: 2011-05-13
Posts: 5,128

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Twenty Trillion of debt is EASILY fixed!

Just set the printer to MAX, load up the thing with a train load of paper,  and hit PRINT!

OC


"The Australian Labor Party is a democratic socialist party and has the objective of the democratic socialisation of industry, production, distribution and exchange, to the extent necessary to eliminate exploitation and other anti-social features in these fields."   -  ALP Constitution.

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#41 2016-09-17 13:58:55

JulieW
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2010-10-14
Posts: 11,101

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Old Codger wrote:

Twenty Trillion of debt is EASILY fixed!

Just set the printer to MAX, load up the thing with a train load of paper,  and hit PRINT!

OC

You'll like this O.C.

"I think I'm entitled to legal representation"

lol

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#42 2016-09-17 15:47:05

Old Codger
Silver Stacker
Registered: 2011-05-13
Posts: 5,128

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

"importing wealth from immigration."


Most "refugees" sucking on the taxpayers teat!

OC


"The Australian Labor Party is a democratic socialist party and has the objective of the democratic socialisation of industry, production, distribution and exchange, to the extent necessary to eliminate exploitation and other anti-social features in these fields."   -  ALP Constitution.

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#43 2016-09-17 18:49:11

radiobirdman
Silver Stacker
Registered: 2011-04-25
Posts: 2,300
Trades :   59 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

TheEnd wrote:
House wrote:

And what has that obsessive worrying for the last 5 years done for you? The US won't collapse, Aus won't be too hard hit in GFC 2/recession, house prices won't plummet.

Sky, I think I said before that the Syd and Melb medians wouldn't fall lower than 12.6%.

20,000,000,000 Trillion dollars is an aweful amount of debt House.

Someday soon the U.S will have to pay it back.

twenty billion trillion $20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

or in English

$20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

Give it some time they will get there

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#44 2016-09-17 19:45:08

Old Codger
Silver Stacker
Registered: 2011-05-13
Posts: 5,128

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

"He'd get along well on this forum!"


ONLY if he was appointed Global Administrator for life!


OC


"The Australian Labor Party is a democratic socialist party and has the objective of the democratic socialisation of industry, production, distribution and exchange, to the extent necessary to eliminate exploitation and other anti-social features in these fields."   -  ALP Constitution.

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#45 2016-09-17 19:49:53

Old Codger
Silver Stacker
Registered: 2011-05-13
Posts: 5,128

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

C & D,

2x genii.

OC


"The Australian Labor Party is a democratic socialist party and has the objective of the democratic socialisation of industry, production, distribution and exchange, to the extent necessary to eliminate exploitation and other anti-social features in these fields."   -  ALP Constitution.

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#46 2016-09-18 02:03:58

TheEnd
Member
Registered: 2011-10-06
Posts: 2,604
Trades :   

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

long88 wrote:

they just print the money.

how could us default ?

TheEnd wrote:

My point is that the U.S are going to default sometime soon and it wont be pretty!

I saw a clip of Donald Trump a while ago on youtube with him saying that 24 Trillion is the absolute limit to U.S debt.

Thats not too far away!

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#47 2016-11-02 18:48:37

House
Moderator/ Legend
From: Stack City
Registered: 2012-04-30
Posts: 9,635
Trades :   232 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

House wrote:
willrocks wrote:
House wrote:

Is that a rhetorical question? Keen to hear your answer given all the doom and gloom threads you've been posting for many years.

I think we've avoided a recession by riding the commodity boom and importing wealth from immigration. There's already clear signs the commodity run is over. Australia's boom is also a reflection of rising personal/household debt levels. Not long ago mortgage debt was 25% of bank books, it's now about 66%.

I'm also keen to get your input given your incessantly optimistic outlook on real estate.

Plenty of commodities still holding strong- record iron ore cargo in August of 42.875Mt (+9% YoY), coking coal prices making crazy gainz and copper is up from 6 year lows. As I've mentioned before, Aus is transitioning into being a services country. Around 60% of the GDP apparently. Mining is only about 7%.

After increasing by a revised +2.1 per cent in September, the Reserve Bank of Australia's Index of Commodity Prices soared by +9.5 per cent in October.

This means that not only will national income rebound in Q3, it may positively rip in Q4.

The index is now up by +29 per cent since January to be +16 per cent higher than a year ago.

In Aussie dollar terms, the index is up by +19.9 per cent since December to be +7.8 per cent higher than a year ago.

In fact using spot prices for the bulk commodities, the Index of Commodity Prices is a thumping +34.2 per cent higher than a year ago!
Pete Wargent


WBI- 41.16

"There's no point in paying a mortgage on an asset that is going to fall by 40 per cent or so in the next few years". Steve Keen, 2008.
Stacker FAQ'S. New threads welcome- http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … faq-s.html

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#48 2016-11-02 19:02:34

bubblebobble2
Member
From: Seedeneey
Registered: 2012-02-06
Posts: 1,038
Trades :   64 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

2017 is the time....stack on gold NOW!

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#49 2016-11-03 06:06:16

Topherclaus
Member
From: Central Coast, NSW
Registered: 2015-11-15
Posts: 485
Trades :   15 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

long88 wrote:

they just print the money.

how could us default ?

TheEnd wrote:

My point is that the U.S are going to default sometime soon and it wont be pretty!

Because they don't often "print" the money, they borrow from eh reserve which must be repaid plus interest. And printing your way to recovery/prosperity is just printing your way into hyperinflation.


An addiction to drugs would be cheaper.
- silver and gold anon. member -

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#50 2016-11-03 06:10:54

Topherclaus
Member
From: Central Coast, NSW
Registered: 2015-11-15
Posts: 485
Trades :   15 

Re: Australia - 25 years without recession

Old Codger wrote:

"importing wealth from immigration."


Most "refugees" sucking on the taxpayers teat!

OC

Well, given how much they spend on detention of these people it would literally be cheaper to bring them here, train them, and give them a house if they're around for any more than a year (which plenty are). Except you could do a fraction of that, give them training and a short term stay then have them work on government projects or into real work and they'd cost less plus you wouldn't be causing more of a problem than you're stopping which is what the current policy will cause.

If you are forced to adopt a child (family member dies etc) are you better off locking it in a cupboard and treating it like dirt or are you better off bringing it into your family? The former leads to an angry shit who hates you and wants to cause you harm, the latter most likely brings about a lovely member of your family. Now assume renting the room for them costs multiples of anything it would ever cost you to just bring them into your home... I reckon it isn't seeming so bad anymore.


An addiction to drugs would be cheaper.
- silver and gold anon. member -

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