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#176 2016-04-18 19:18:03

BuggedOut
Member
From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

I got 5/8 this weekend and am 40/56 for the year. 

I had Manly, Bulldogs and Canberra this weekend that lost sad

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#177 2016-04-18 21:09:34

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Round 7 Summary :-

Manly vs Parramatta = +2.1
Cowboys vs Souths = -6.5
Titans vs Dragons = +3.68
Bulldogs vs Warriors = -4.4
Newcastle vs Brisbane = +0.6
Canberra vs Sharks = -7.2
Tigers vs Melbourne = +10.89
Roosters vs Penrith = -0.4

NRL Round 7 Total = -1.23 units

Total Units Bet = 52.6
Return On Investment (ROI) = -2.3%

Bets Won / Placed = 12/42
Strike Rate (SR) = 28.5%

My first losing week for the year, which was a bit of a bitter pill.  I'm acknowledging that I may be stretching my early season strategies a bit too far.  As the season progresses teams find consistency and fitness.  Their combinations start to gel and it gets harder to find an edge pre-game as class teams start to rise and weak teams start to show signs of fatigue and lack of motivation as the weekly grind sets in.

This is evidenced by my 2 wipeout games this week, backing Canberra and Souths.  BOTH of these teams have decent forward packs and were coming off losses that should have fired them up for big games.  BOTH of them started meekly and conceded 40+ points.  This is a strong indicator that the early season is over and we are transitioning into what I call "The Origin Phase" where the competition is totally disrupted.  This new phase is often more about "Who shows up to play" than anything else and it is almost impossible to predict that as an outsider before the match begins.

I said at the end of March that I'd continue through Rounds 5-8 which takes me through to next week but I am pulling up stumps at the end of Round 8 and I will also wind stakes back a bit next week to make sure I limit any potential downside.

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#178 2016-04-19 02:01:24

bloomst
Silver Stacker
From: Melbourne, Australia.
Registered: 2012-07-16
Posts: 4,872
Trades :   421 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

It's a rough week for you, as at least 4 bets were just short/over by 1 or 2 points.

Thank You for sharing your tips/picks and opinion about the games. Much appreciated.


I am the Petal who like metals smile

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#179 2016-04-21 23:27:30

BuggedOut
Member
From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Futures Update

Brisbane have now firmed right up as strong favorites to win the Minor Premiership.  We still have State of Origin to get through and there are now whispers about that Brisbane may also have salary cap issues this year.  Price is good and not worth the risk of holding this position so time to take the profit and cash out.

My futures bet on Brisbane now results as :-

Brisbane Broncos to Win Minor Premiership : 40 units @ 5.00 (CASHED OUT @ 2.07) = +56.5 units


Meanwhile Wests Tigers have lost 5 games in a row and have firmed up to be 2nd favorite to win the Wooden Spoon.  There are still a lot of variables here and they were good against Melbourne last week.  They play against a Raiders side this week who were well off last week so a decent chance of ending the losing streak this weekend.  Cashing out enough of my position to cover my stake.

My futures bet on West Tigers is now split into :-

West Tigers Most Losses (Dead Heat Rules Apply) : 12 units @ 7.00 (CASHED OUT @ 4.10) = +8.49 units

West Tigers Most Losses (Dead Heat Rules Apply) : 8 units @ 7.00 (STILL PENDING)

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#180 2016-04-22 00:17:57

BuggedOut
Member
From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 57 - Brisbane vs Souths

Souths +6.5 Handicap 1st Half : 1.5 unit @ 1.92
Under 41.5 Match Points : 1.5 unit @ 1.93
Souths Try 1st Scoring Play : 1 unit @ 4.00
Brisbane -29.5 Match Handicap : 1 unit @ 6.25

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#181 2016-04-22 19:48:28

BuggedOut
Member
From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 57 Result :-

Souths +6.5 Handicap 1st Half : 1.5 unit @ 1.92 = -1.5
Under 41.5 Match Points : 1.5 unit @ 1.93 = +1.395
Souths Try 1st Scoring Play : 1 unit @ 4.00 = -1
Brisbane -29.5 Match Handicap : 1 unit @ 6.25 = -1

Game 57 Total = -2.105

A bit better effort from Souths but still not good enough.  They faded late in each half of football which is consistent with a team that is fatigued from being flogged at training by an increasingly desperate coach. sad

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#182 2016-04-22 22:57:00

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 58 - Bulldogs vs Titans

Bulldogs / Bulldogs Halftime / Fulltime Double : 2 units @ 1.55
Tony Williams To Score A Try : 1 unit @ 4.50
Bulldogs -23.5 Match Handicap : 1 unit @ 4.90


Game 59 - Canberra vs Tigers

Tigers +7.5 Match Handicap : 2 units @ 1.90
Joseph Leilua To Score A Try : 1.5 unit @ 2.75
Josh Papalli To Score A Try : 1.5 unit @ 3.00
Canberra / Tigers Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 10.50

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#183 2016-04-23 04:44:36

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 60 - Cowboys vs Parramatta

Parramatta Under 14.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.87
Cowboys -8.5 Match Handicap : 2 units @ 1.93
Cowboys Penalty 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 7.50
Kyle Feldt 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 10.00
Kyle Feldt 1st Tryscorer 2nd Half : 0.5 unit @ 10.00

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#184 2016-04-23 07:32:56

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 58 Result :-

Bulldogs / Bulldogs Halftime / Fulltime Double : 2 units @ 1.55 = -2
Tony Williams To Score A Try : 1 unit @ 4.50 = -1
Bulldogs -23.5 Match Handicap : 1 unit @ 4.90 = -1

Game 58 Total = -4 units

Not happy Jan!!  I normally don't take short odds but this one should have been a lock. mad


Game 59 Result :-

Tigers +7.5 Match Handicap : 2 units @ 1.90 = -2
Joseph Leilua To Score A Try : 1.5 unit @ 2.75 = +2.625
Josh Papalli To Score A Try : 1.5 unit @ 3.00 = -1.5
Canberra / Tigers Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 10.50 = -0.5

Game 59 Total = -1.375 units

Lots of Canberra tries.  Both starting props and the *other* 2nd rower score....but not Papalli.  Leilua scores twice.  sad


Game 60 Result :-

Parramatta Under 14.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.87 = -2
Cowboys -8.5 Match Handicap : 2 units @ 1.93 = +1.86
Cowboys Penalty 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 7.50 = -0.5
Kyle Feldt 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 10.00 = -0.5
Kyle Feldt 1st Tryscorer 2nd Half : 0.5 unit @ 10.00 -0.5

Game 60 Total = -1.64 units

Good game, a lot closer than the final score suggests.  Not a good day for me tho. sad

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#185 2016-04-24 01:13:23

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 61 - Sharks vs Penrith

Over 38.5 Match Points : 5 units @ 2.00

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#186 2016-04-24 04:15:06

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 61 Result :-

Over 38.5 Match Points : 5 units @ 2.00 = -5

Game 61 Total = -5 units

This was a great bet on 2 teams who played open attacking footy in great conditions.  I am absolutely gutted to miss it by half a point.  FOUR shots on goal were missed!! mad

Last edited by BuggedOut (2016-04-24 04:15:40)

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#187 2016-04-24 23:38:31

BuggedOut
Member
From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 62 - Newcastle vs Manly

Manly Under 23.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 2.05
Newcastle Win Match : 1.5 units @ 3.00
Halftime OR Fulltime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 10.00

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#188 2016-04-25 01:06:50

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 63 - Dragons vs Roosters

Under 36 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.95
Tribet - Either Team 0-6 : 1 unit @ 2.90
Halftime OR Fulltime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 9.00
Shaun Kenny-Dowall 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 10.00

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#189 2016-04-25 04:12:49

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 64 - Melbourne vs Warriors

NO BET - On tilt.  Need a drink.

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#190 2016-04-25 21:50:43

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 62 Result :-

Manly Under 23.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 2.05 = -2
Newcastle Win Match : 1.5 units @ 3.00 = -1.5
Halftime OR Fulltime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 10.00 = -0.5

Game 62 Total = -4 units

Another ordinary game.  Newcastle started well but faded. sad


Game 63 Result :-

Under 36 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.95 = -2
Tribet - Either Team 0-6 : 1 unit @ 2.90 = +1.9
Halftime OR Fulltime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 9.00 = -0.5
Shaun Kenny-Dowall 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 10.00 = -0.5

Game 63 Total = -1.1 units

Wasn't far off here, but enough to make it another loss. sad

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#191 2016-04-25 22:15:08

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Round 8 Summary :-


Brisbane vs Souths = -2.105
Bulldogs vs Titans = -4
Canberra vs Tigers = -1.375
Cowboys vs Parramatta = -1.64
Sharks vs Penrith = -5
Newcastle vs Manly = -4
Dragons vs Roosters = -1.1

Melbourne vs Warriors = +0

NRL Round 8 Total = -19.22 units

Total Units Bet = 33.0
Return On Investment (ROI) = -58.2%

Bets Won / Placed = 4/24
Strike Rate (SR) = 16.7%

I backed up my first losing week for the year with the worst losing week I've had since I started keeping records....and that's been a while!  I am kicking myself a bit because I acknowledged last week that I was stretching my early season strategies a bit too far and clearly I have paid severely for it this week.  I am still a bit surprised because we haven't really gotten into the Origin Phase of the competition yet, but clearly I need to go back to the drawing board and figure out whats going wrong.

As it turns out it's the sensible time for me to pull up stumps.

Good luck with your punting people and thanks for following the thread.

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#192 2016-04-25 22:24:05

BuggedOut
Member
From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Summary of Rounds 1-8 :-

Round 1 = +26.93
Round 2 = +11.09
Round 3 = +16.185
Round 4 = +10.045
Round 5 = +10.645
Round 6 = +24.73

Round 7 = -1.23
Round 8 = -19.22

Total of Rounds 1-8 = +79.175 units

*Excludes Futures betting profits

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#193 2016-05-14 22:37:51

TeaPot&ChopSticks
Member
Registered: 2012-04-16
Posts: 288
Trades :   

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Hi BuggedOut. Do you follow "The Mole" on twitter? He has picked the last two games try scorers on twitter. Talk about Jerry Maguire ! Missed out on this Round BuggedOut.
Have to wait till the next round ! Come On Guys, No body else contributing to this thread. Special thanks to BuggedOut for these posts.

TP&CS.


"If speaking is silver, then listening is gold." — Turkish Proverb

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#194 2016-05-15 00:14:07

errol43
Silver Stacker
From: Bundaberg
Registered: 2010-04-13
Posts: 6,325
Trades :   

Re: NRL Punting Thread

No help this year at all,,70000 in tipping competition... Current position 53000...Has a bad period when I lost several picks by golden point or a late penalty or try.

A few years ago I came 7th...In the closing rounds I had to pick a few long shot in an effort to pull in the leader...I tell you thats mighty hard to do.

Regards Errol 43

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#195 2016-05-29 06:21:59

BuggedOut
Member
From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Futures Update

I just cashed out my futures bet on the Melbourne Storm.  Cooper Cronk has a dodgy ankle and with Origin period starting this week the risk of a major injury to another key player is significant.  Origin period has typically been difficult for the Melbourne Storm.

So my futures bet on Melbourne now results as :-

Melbourne Storm to Make The Top 4 : 20 units @ 3.25 (CASHED OUT @ 1.32) = +29.27 units

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