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#51 2016-03-12 04:49:19

TeaPot&ChopSticks
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Registered: 2012-04-16
Posts: 288
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

Sydney Souths defeated Newcastle 48-6 ; Relief got my money back and then some !


"If speaking is silver, then listening is gold." — Turkish Proverb

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#52 2016-03-12 04:50:06

TeaPot&ChopSticks
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

Keep up this post Bugged Out !


"If speaking is silver, then listening is gold." — Turkish Proverb

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#53 2016-03-12 06:35:38

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 11 Results :-

Roosters Win Match : 3 units @ 2.05 = -3
Roosters / Roosters Halftime / Fulltime Double : 2 units @ 3.00 = -2
Roosters 13+ Winning Margin : 2 units @ 4.75 = -2

Game 11 Total = -7 units

Ouch.  Roosters lead by 10 at half time and are in front all game....until the end.  Poor game management from the inexperienced Rooster halves cost me a good payout here.  It's a fine line between pleasure and pain.... mad


Game 12 Results :-

Souths Over 12.5 Points 2nd Half : 3 units @ 2.18 = +3.54
Souths -29.5 Handicap : 2 units @ 7.45 = +12.9
Over 43.5 Total Match Points : 2 units @ 1.97 = +1.94
Alex Johnson To Score A Try : 2 units @ 1.70 = +1.4

Game 12 Total = +19.78 units

Cha-ching!  Good to see an all-green result sheet after the pain of the Roosters game.  Love a good scoreline blowout and the Bunnies are doing well for me so far this year. cool


Game 13 Results :-

Parramatta +1.5 Handicap 1st Half : 2 units @ 2.00 = +2
Parramatta Try 1st Scoring Play : 1.5 units @ 2.25 = -1.5
Parramatta / Cowboys Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1.5 units @ 8.60 = -1.5

Game 13 Total = -1 unit

Gritty and determined effort from Parra - they will win a lot of games this year if their top 17 stay injury free.  Cowboys had the flat performance I was expecting to see last week. neutral

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#54 2016-03-12 07:54:54

TeaPot&ChopSticks
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

Yes made Healthy Green Today - Wearing My Sun Glasses at night too BuggedOut .


"If speaking is silver, then listening is gold." — Turkish Proverb

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#55 2016-03-13 00:25:47

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 14 - Sharks vs Dragons

Sharks Win Match : 2 units @ 1.60
Under 18.5 Points 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.90
Sharks 1-12 Winning Margin : 1.5 units @ 3.10
Josh Dugan 1st Tryscorer Dragons : 1 unit @ 6.00
Halftime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 10.50
Ben Barba Last Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 16.00

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#56 2016-03-13 03:24:14

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 15 - Storm vs Titans

Titans +6.5 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.85
Titans Try 1st Scoring Play : 1.5 units @ 3.00
Titans 1st to 10 Points : 1.5 units @ 3.00
Storm 1-12 Winning Margin : 1.5 units @ 3.28
Halftime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 11.00

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#57 2016-03-13 05:01:11

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 14 Results :-

Sharks Win Match : 2 units @ 1.60 = +1.2
Under 18.5 Points 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.90 = -2
Sharks 1-12 Winning Margin : 1.5 units @ 3.10 = -1.5
Josh Dugan 1st Tryscorer Dragons : 1 unit @ 6.00 = -1
Halftime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 10.50 = -0.5
Ben Barba Last Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 16.00 = -0.5

Game 14 Total = -4.3 units

I really should have done better here considering a tagged Sharks as specials last week.  Was sitting pretty with scores tied at 2-2 after 33 mins...then Dragons let in 3 tries in 7 mins to kill my unders by 1 conversion.


Game 15 Results :-

Titans +6.5 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.85 = -2
Titans Try 1st Scoring Play : 1.5 units @ 3.00 = -1.5

Titans 1st to 10 Points : 1.5 units @ 3.00 = +3
Storm 1-12 Winning Margin : 1.5 units @ 3.28 = -1.5
Halftime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 11.00 = -0.5

Game 15 Total = -2.5 units

Arghh!  2 games in a row I am looking good and get done just before half time.  Titans up 10-6 after 36 mins and let in 2 tries in 3 mins to blow my 1st half handicap by 1 conversion.

No excuses.  Just a sh1tty day.  Think I might need a drink tonite! mad

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#58 2016-03-13 05:05:23

bloomst
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From: Melbourne, Australia.
Registered: 2012-07-16
Posts: 4,872
Trades :   421 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

BuggedOut wrote:

Arghh!  2 games in a row I am looking good and get done just before half time.  Titans up 10-6 after 36 mins and let in 2 tries in 3 mins to blow my 1st half handicap by 1 conversion.

No excuses.  Just a sh1tty day.  Think I might need a drink tonite! mad

You just got done in the last minutes before the half time...i feel for you! This week is pretty solid for you. big_smile


I am the Petal who like metals smile

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#59 2016-03-13 05:24:46

scrooged
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From: Melbs
Registered: 2014-05-06
Posts: 1,227
Trades :   54 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Have that drink, you deserve it.

Nice round. You're all over it.

Cards don't always fall in favour but there's no question you have solid understanding of the game.

Have taken 2 of your recommendations that matched mine and although you've been more bullish in your assessment (than my prediction) you've nailed it.

Keep up the good work mate and keep posting. Thanks.

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#60 2016-03-13 05:56:13

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

Appreciate the kind words.

Will bounce back tomorrow.  A bit excited to see how Marty Taupau goes tomorrow night.

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#61 2016-03-14 03:39:13

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 16 - Tigers vs Manly

Manly Win Match : 3 units @ 1.70
Manly 13+ Winning Margin : 2 units @ 4.00
Martin Taupau To Score A Try : 2.5 units @ 5.10
Martin Taupau To Score 2+ Tries : 0.5 unit @ 36.00

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#62 2016-03-14 05:47:07

BuggedOut
Member
From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 16 Results :-

Manly Win Match : 3 units @ 1.70 = -3
Manly 13+ Winning Margin : 2 units @ 4.00 = -2

Martin Taupau To Score A Try : 2.5 units @ 5.10 = +10.25
Martin Taupau To Score 2+ Tries : 0.5 unit @ 36.00 = -0.5

Game 16 Total = +4.75

Marty Taupau!!  He saved my bacon in this one.  Some really very dodgy refereeing in this game - especially painful in the 2nd half.  Can't complain with a profit result though hmm

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#63 2016-03-14 10:18:51

errol43
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From: Bundaberg
Registered: 2010-04-13
Posts: 6,325
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

BuggedOut wrote:

Game 16 Results :-

Manly Win Match : 3 units @ 1.70 = -3
Manly 13+ Winning Margin : 2 units @ 4.00 = -2

Martin Taupau To Score A Try : 2.5 units @ 5.10 = +10.25
Martin Taupau To Score 2+ Tries : 0.5 unit @ 36.00 = -0.5

Game 16 Total = +4.75

Marty Taupau!!  He saved my bacon in this one.  Some really very dodgy refereeing in this game - especially painful in the 2nd half.  Can't complain with a profit result though hmm

Tigers bombed many tries..Also pen. won by Manly...

Bugged Out, Do you go in a tipping comp.?

I got 7 out of 8 this week only missing out on the Roosters(1point ) smile

Regards Errol 43

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#64 2016-03-14 17:42:15

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

Congrats on your tipping.  I got 6/8 in my comp (Missed Roosters & Manly)

Penalty count in the 2nd half was 5-1 Tigers, but the real killer was some of the on-field calls such as the Manly try that was voided because of an on-field knock-on call that should have gone to the bunker and would have been cleared.  There was also a blatant professional foul on a late Manly attacking raid that was just ignored.

Who knows if it would have made a difference.  BUT Tigers are a young side that is a risk of capitulation under pressure if momentum swings away from them late in the game (like it did late in the 1st half).  That just wasn't allowed to happen last night.

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#65 2016-03-15 04:59:09

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

NRL Round 2 Summary :-

Penrith vs Bulldogs = -2.25
Brisbane vs Warriors = +3.61
Roosters vs Canberra = -7
Souths vs Newcastle = +19.78
Parramatta vs Cowboys = -1
Sharks vs Dragons = -4.3
Storm vs Titans = -2.5

Tigers vs Manly = +4.75

NRL Round 2 Total = +11.09


A lot of frustration this round but happy to be making a profit even though 5 out of 8 games show a loss.  Even with a lot of losses you can still do well in this game as long as you make your wins big and your losses small...or in other words, just keep taking good prices and the results will take care of themselves in the long run.

A few notes for the week I can improve next week :-

1.  Zero strike rate on the 3 x halftime / fulltime switches this week I put down to bad luck.  2 of the games had the momentum swings I was looking for but the timings were wrong.  The 3rd I had the teams the wrong way around.  I might need to come up with a better way to trade those swings.

2.  Zero strike rate on the 3 x 1-12 margin bets and in each instance I had the winner correct but they won by more.  New interchange rule and faster paced game might be leading to bigger margins so far this year so I need to avoid backing the 1-12 margin option.

3.  Fatigue may also be a factor late in the 1st half of games.  2 games I had a strong winning position but got blown out of the water with clusters of tries in the 33-40 minute bracket.  Need to factor this potential fatigue into future analysis.

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#66 2016-03-16 21:23:01

Lunardragon
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From: Land of Nineth Dragon
Registered: 2011-10-19
Posts: 3,926
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

W


An Opportunity comes only once. Grab it while you can!

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#67 2016-03-17 04:34:49

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 17 - Cowboys vs Roosters

Under 18.5 Points 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.90
Cowboys -6.5 Handicap 2nd Half : 1.5 units @ 2.05
Cowboys -29.5 Match Handicap : 1 unit @ 7.50
Cowboys Penalty 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 11.50
Gavin Cooper 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 17.00
Jason Taumalolo 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 26.00

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#68 2016-03-17 06:54:05

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 17 Results :-

Under 18.5 Points 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.90 = +1.8
Cowboys -6.5 Handicap 2nd Half : 1.5 units @ 2.05 = +1.575
Cowboys -29.5 Match Handicap : 1 unit @ 7.50 = +6.5

Cowboys Penalty 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 11.50 = -0.5
Gavin Cooper 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 17.00 = -0.5
Jason Taumalolo 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 26.00 = -0.5

Game 17 Total = +8.375 units

Good times!  Taumalolo got a try, but not the first.  Probably would have backed him for anytime tryscorer if it was a dry game.  No complaints! cool

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#69 2016-03-17 07:26:30

Lunardragon
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From: Land of Nineth Dragon
Registered: 2011-10-19
Posts: 3,926
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

Didnt really think that you could have nailed for cowboy -29.5 match handicap....i was totally wrong!


An Opportunity comes only once. Grab it while you can!

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#70 2016-03-17 07:41:36

Stoic Phoenix
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

Keep it up BuggedOut


www.searchnstay.com    ....for all your accommodation needs worldwide

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#71 2016-03-17 23:45:40

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 18 - Bulldogs vs Parramatta

NO BET

NOTE - At this stage there are some serious variables that are unknown.  Keiran Foran is in doubt again and his in/out would make a massive change in my strategy for this game.  The other big variable is the weather.  Lots of patchy rain in and around Sydney right now and a lot depends on whether it clears up for the game or stays wet.

I may throw up a (very) late bet or 2, but far too risky to take a position this early with 2 big unknowns.

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#72 2016-03-18 04:01:42

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 18 - Bulldogs vs Parramatta

Parramatta +4.5 Match Handicap : 3 units @ 1.91
Under 38.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.90
Parramatta Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 11.00
Halftime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 11.00

* Expecting Foran to be playing and conditions to be "greasy" but no further rain during the game.

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#73 2016-03-18 04:23:57

TeaPot&ChopSticks
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

Missed out on the power play of the week ! Too worn out from work to bet on it. Unhappy Jan !

Smart move with NO BET BuggedOut There will always be another time - especially with the AFL coming next week.

What is Your View on the Broncos Away Game Versus the Panthers at Home?

I like the Broncos, but not enough yet to put Money on Them.

Last edited by TeaPot&ChopSticks (2016-03-18 04:26:12)


"If speaking is silver, then listening is gold." — Turkish Proverb

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#74 2016-03-19 01:33:23

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 18 Results :-

Parramatta +4.5 Match Handicap : 3 units @ 1.91 = +2.73
Under 38.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.90 = +1.8

Parramatta Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 11.00 = -0.5
Halftime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 11.00 = -0.5

Game 18 Total = +3.53 units

Another quality effort from Parramatta.  big_smile

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#75 2016-03-19 01:56:41

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 19 - Newcastle vs Canberra

Over 45.5 Match Points : 3 units @ 1.88
Newcastle Win Match : 2 units @ 2.44
Josh Papalii To Score A Try : 1 unit @ 4.00
Newcastle 13+ Winning Margin : 0.5 unit @ 6.15

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