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#26 2016-03-06 05:52:21

scrooged
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From: Melbs
Registered: 2014-05-06
Posts: 1,227
Trades :   54 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Good round mate. Congrats

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#27 2016-03-06 23:22:14

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 8 - Storm vs Dragons

Dragons +4 1st Half Handicap : 2 units @ 1.95
Storm 1-12 Winning Margin : 2 units @ 3.10
Josh Dugan 1st Tryscorer Dragons : 1 unit @ 6.00
Billy Slater Last Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 10.00

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#28 2016-03-07 07:10:47

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 8 Results :-

Dragons +4 1st Half Handicap : 2 units @ 1.95 = +1.9
Storm 1-12 Winning Margin : 2 units @ 3.10 = +4.2

Josh Dugan 1st Tryscorer Dragons : 1 unit @ 6.00 = -1
Billy Slater Last Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 10.00 = -0.5

Game 8 Total = +4.6

Good way to finish off the round smile
Will put up a week 1 summary tomorrow maybe.

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#29 2016-03-07 20:31:17

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

NRL Round 1 Summary :-

Parramatta vs Broncos = -0.7
Manly vs Bulldogs = +14.4
Canberra vs Penrith = +2.38
Tigers vs Warriors = +9.1

Cowboys vs Sharks = -6.26
Roosters vs Souths = +7.41
Titans vs Newcastle = -4
Storm vs Dragons = +4.6

NRL Round 1 Total = +26.93

Total units bet = 63.5 thus Return On Investment (ROI) = +42.4%

Number of bets placed = 39, Winning bets placed = 15 thus Strike Rate (SR) = 38.5%

NOTE - I did not include my 4 leg multi in the above summary, but I hit all 4 legs for a nice little sweetener this week

Normally each month I would do a deeper analysis on my bet types to see where I am going right or wrong.  It's a bit early but I can see 2 areas already where I need to improve :-

1. I have been betting too early (over eager) and as a result have misread some of the playing conditions and also missed some late team changes.

2.  I have a very poor strike rate on the First Scoring Play markets (0%) and this is normally a market type I do well in.  Part of this is a result of misreading conditions, but also misreading the captaincy/coaching styles/instructions for the new season.

I need to do better in both of these areas next week.

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#30 2016-03-08 01:29:55

MikeW
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From: Townsville
Registered: 2012-04-12
Posts: 161
Trades :   48 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

A nice start for the season. Hope it continues.

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#31 2016-03-08 11:02:24

errol43
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From: Bundaberg
Registered: 2010-04-13
Posts: 6,325
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

What a good start to get rid of watching NRL on Foxtell instead of Channel 9....Live game is much better to watch.

I got of to a bad start in the tipping comp, didnt tick the box for the rabbits(going blind)? so only finished with 4 out of 8.

I'll be watching with keen interest how your punting goes.

Regards Errol 43

Last edited by errol43 (2016-03-08 11:03:25)

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#32 2016-03-09 00:06:17

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

New Futures bet :-

West Tigers Most Losses (Dead Heat Rules Apply) : 20 units @ 7.00

As pointed out, this is a young team that has some talent, but is very vulnerable with cultural issues and a major conflict between the coach and most senior player.   I was going to wait until the early season enthusiasm died off but with a win against a very poor Warriors side in round 1 they've drifted to a cracking price.  But the real clincher for me today was the article in the Telegraph today about Mitchell Moses (man of match round 1) saying he didn't think him and Luke Brooks would stay together long term because of "salary cap issues".  Or, in other words, he's had 1 good game and reckons he's now worth a bunch.  Nothing screams "sh*t culture" to me more than chequebook players coming out publicly with rubbish like this.  They may well get towelled up by a fired up Manly this weekend and the rot could easily set in after that.

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#33 2016-03-09 19:26:42

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Gotta throw this one up as a bit of an early bird special for the Monday night game.  Price is unlikely to last :-

Martin Taupau To Score A Try : 2.5 units @ 5.10
Martin Taupau To Score 2+ Tries : 0.5 unit @ 36.00

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#34 2016-03-10 02:12:41

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 9 - Penrith vs Bulldogs

Penrith Win 2nd Half : 2 units @ 2.15
Penrith Try 1st Scoring Play : 1.5 units @ 2.50
Josh Mansour 1st Tryscorer Penrith : 1 unit @ 5.55
Bulldogs / Penrith Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 10.00
Jamie Soward Last Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 26.00

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#35 2016-03-10 03:47:09

screaming eagle
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From: Sydney
Registered: 2014-01-05
Posts: 432
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

BuggedOut wrote:

Gotta throw this one up as a bit of an early bird special for the Monday night game.  Price is unlikely to last :-

Martin Taupau To Score A Try : 2.5 units @ 5.10
Martin Taupau To Score 2+ Tries : 0.5 unit @ 36.00

Those prices were huge overs!

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#36 2016-03-10 06:06:53

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Did you mean Unders?

He played 21 games last year and scored 4 tries, including a double vs Souths.  I often look for powerful back rowers matched up against weak defensive halves, but the fact I think Manly will potentially smash Tigers makes this a bet.  The fact he is playing against his old club makes it a cracking bet.

PS - Prices are still available.  I'll send you a PM.

Last edited by BuggedOut (2016-03-10 06:09:22)

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#37 2016-03-10 07:00:40

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 9 Results :-

Penrith Win 2nd Half : 2 units @ 2.15 = -2
Penrith Try 1st Scoring Play : 1.5 units @ 2.50 = +2.25
Josh Mansour 1st Tryscorer Penrith : 1 unit @ 5.55 = -1
Bulldogs / Penrith Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 10.00 = -1
Jamie Soward Last Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 26.00 = -0.5

Game 9 Total = -2.25 units

Bummer.  Got my halves of football the wrong way around.  Penrith / Bulldogs was the go sad

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#38 2016-03-10 09:35:07

TeaPot&ChopSticks
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

What are You Thinking Bugged Out With The Second Game of Round 2 ? - Brisbane vs New Zealand.

Head To Head: Brisbane? @ 1.33

The Score to be Below 42 points @ 1.90

Can the Broncos be trusted to get into gear at a home game?


"If speaking is silver, then listening is gold." — Turkish Proverb

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#39 2016-03-10 18:48:00

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

Brisbane are entitled to be favourites, and I do like them for the minor premiership but I don't think there is much value backing them here at 1.33 even though I think they'll probably win.  Unders could be a decent bet though, considering Brisbane played very safe last week once establishing a big lead so they might be less likely to blowout a scoreline.

Warriors were woeful last week but they do have a very talented roster and they have been getting flogged in the press all week being accused of having a "bro culture" so they have a lot to prove and could come out firing.

I'll put my bets up later today, but I'll be looking for value on some Warriors options somewhere.

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#40 2016-03-10 23:20:52

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 10 - Brisbane vs Warriors

Brisbane Under 25.5 Match Points : 3 units @ 1.87
Warriors 1st To 10 Points : 1.5 units @ 2.65
Warriors Try 1st Scoring Play : 1.5 units @ 2.75
Brisbane 1-12 Winning Margin : 1 unit @ 3.38
Warriors / Brisbane Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 7.75
Brisbane Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 13.00

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#41 2016-03-11 00:01:42

brisbanecoin
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From: Australia
Registered: 2011-02-24
Posts: 724
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

BuggedOut wrote:

Game 10 - Brisbane vs Warriors

Brisbane Under 25.5 Match Points : 3 units @ 1.87
Warriors 1st To 10 Points : 1.5 units @ 2.65
Warriors Try 1st Scoring Play : 1.5 units @ 2.75
Brisbane 1-12 Winning Margin : 1 unit @ 3.38
Warriors / Brisbane Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 7.75
Brisbane Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 13.00


Not sure if you got the text from sportsbet but Brisbane 1-12 Winning margin moved to 4.5 in a mega bet special.

Also I know your tryscores haven't been doing to good but interested to see how you would split the betting units on:
Anytime tryscorer
Corey Oates @ 1.67
Kahu @1.91
Gillet @3.60
[email protected]

First Hometeam tryscorer
Oates @5
Kahu @6
Gillet @12

Last edited by brisbanecoin (2016-03-11 00:08:58)

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#42 2016-03-11 00:35:39

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

Unfortunately I can't bet with Sportsbet because they kill off or limit winning accounts.  But I'd take some of that Brisbane 1-12 at 4.50 if I could.

Wouldn't touch the anytime try scorers market for this game because I am leaning towards Unders and not expecting a lot of tries.  For 1st Brisbane Tryscorer I like Oates as he's a good Tryscorer and has good form.  I also do like Gillet at that price against the right sort of opponent, but not against the Warriors.  I'm hoping for Warriors to return to playing a "power game" which would mean Brisbane might be more likely to go around them, than through them so I'd want to be on numbers 1 to 5.

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#43 2016-03-11 01:00:30

brisbanecoin
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From: Australia
Registered: 2011-02-24
Posts: 724
Trades :   125 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

BuggedOut wrote:

Unfortunately I can't bet with Sportsbet because they kill off or limit winning accounts.  But I'd take some of that Brisbane 1-12 at 4.50 if I could.

Wouldn't touch the anytime try scorers market for this game because I am leaning towards Unders and not expecting a lot of tries.  For 1st Brisbane Tryscorer I like Oates as he's a good Tryscorer and has good form.  I also do like Gillet at that price against the right sort of opponent, but not against the Warriors.  I'm hoping for Warriors to return to playing a "power game" which would mean Brisbane might be more likely to go around them, than through them so I'd want to be on numbers 1 to 5.

That's terrible,  about sportsbet.  I didn't know they were allowed to pick and choose who they accept bets from.  I only like them because of the cashout feature; I like some of the bitcoin betting sites because of the live online betting options.  Thanks for the tip, and best of luck; will be following the tread closely!

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#44 2016-03-11 07:00:26

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 10 Results :-

Brisbane Under 25.5 Match Points : 3 units @ 1.87 = +2.61
Warriors 1st To 10 Points : 1.5 units @ 2.65 = -1.5
Warriors Try 1st Scoring Play : 1.5 units @ 2.75 = -1.5
Brisbane 1-12 Winning Margin : 1 unit @ 3.38 = -1
Warriors / Brisbane Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 7.75 = -1

Brisbane Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 13.00 = +6

Game 10 Total = +3.61 units

Always infuriating backing the Warriors.  Seems I am getting the analysis right but the betting plans wrong at the moment.  Should've taken my own advice and backed Corey Oates for 1st Tryscorer tongue

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#45 2016-03-11 22:11:44

TeaPot&ChopSticks
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Registered: 2012-04-16
Posts: 288
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Re: NRL Punting Thread

Was chickened with Brisbane but backing South Sydney in a Head to Head Win.


"If speaking is silver, then listening is gold." — Turkish Proverb

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#46 2016-03-11 23:14:14

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 11 - Canberra vs Roosters

Roosters Win Match : 3 units @ 2.05
Roosters / Roosters Halftime / Fulltime Double : 2 units @ 3.00
Roosters 13+ Winning Margin : 2 units @ 4.75

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#47 2016-03-11 23:41:00

Golightly
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From: The end of space and time
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Posts: 1,405
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Website

Re: NRL Punting Thread

I had the warriors for that game at 1-12 lead... Thought might be upset.

I dont think the Bunnies will smash Newcastle by to much (though I hope we do) another at 1-12 win, On obvious odds it's generally the market I would look at

Roosters to not make 8

Bulldogs, Bunnies, Storm and Broncos top 4  maybe Penrith as a darky


If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.

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#48 2016-03-12 02:26:36

BuggedOut
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From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 11 - Souths vs Newcastle

Souths Over 12.5 Points 2nd Half : 3 units @ 2.18
Souths -29.5 Handicap : 2 units @ 7.45
Over 43.5 Total Match Points : 2 units @ 1.97
Alex Johnson To Score A Try : 2 units @ 1.70

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#49 2016-03-12 03:29:39

BuggedOut
Member
From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

Game 12 - Parramatta vs Cowboys

Parramatta +1.5 Handicap 1st Half : 2 units @ 2.00
Parramatta Try 1st Scoring Play : 1.5 units @ 2.25
Parramatta / Cowboys Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1.5 units @ 8.60

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#50 2016-03-12 04:22:34

scrooged
Member
From: Melbs
Registered: 2014-05-06
Posts: 1,227
Trades :   54 

Re: NRL Punting Thread

BuggedOut wrote:

Game 11 - Souths vs Newcastle

Souths Over 12.5 Points 2nd Half : 3 units @ 2.18
Souths -29.5 Handicap : 2 units @ 7.45
Over 43.5 Total Match Points : 2 units @ 1.97
Alex Johnson To Score A Try : 2 units @ 1.70

Too good mate. Well done.

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