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Inspired by the Roswell Crash Survivor I'm creating this thread to record my own NRL punting advice for the pre-season futures markets and matches for Rounds 1-4 (through March).
I've been betting on Rugby League in Australia for over 24 years. What started out as a hobby has become a lot more serious in recent times to the point where I have on occassion published some of my analytical work.
With rugby league tipsters and media analysts seemingly a dime-a-dozen these days it is hard to stand out from the noise, so I've never found it consistently worthwhile to publish. But I'm thinking the average SS regular usually knows enough about applying critical thought to be able to sort sh*t from clay, so maybe some members will find this thread worth following while I can be bothered maintaining it.
Regardless, I'm pumped up about the start of a new season and am doing the analysis anyway so I don't mind sharing my thoughts. I use a "unit system" where I place on average 5-10 units per match. For followers a unit could be $1, $10, $100 or any amount that fits the budget (ie, it won't hurt if it is lost).
Disclaimer - Frequently I will only place bets minutes before kickoff to ensure I have up-to-the-minute information and high liquidity in betting markets. I also sometimes will move markets with my bets so quoted prices may not always be available to thread followers. Feel free to PM me with any specific queries if you have problems "getting on" and I'll help if I can - NO GUARANTEES
One of the big improvements in the betting industry for the 2016 season is the adoption of the "CASH OUT" facility with most Australian corporate bookmakers. I will normally place some futures bets in the pre-season that I think can go the duration, but with the CASH OUT facility it does allow easier profit taking from futures bets that may fluctuate through the year and it will allow me to bail out on any futures bets should I expect fortunes to change.
Here are my pre-season futures bets for the 2016 season :-
Brisbane Broncos to Win Minor Premiership : 40 units @ 5.00
It's not the boldest call, since Brisbane are competition favorites this year, but they are being offered up at a cracking price. Last year they fell just short, but they had a young team (especially the halves) that has a lot of upside should they continue to improve. Coach Bennett is one of the best in the league and he knows how to get the best out of his players and do it consistently enough to top the ladder. He has wisely appointed Corey Parker to captaincy (an older, experienced and tough leader with a "cool head") who will be an improvement on Justin Hodges last year. They've picked up James Roberts in the centres who will be a lethal weapon in attack amongst an already dangerous backline. They also have a strong, fit and mobile forward pack that should adjust to the new interchange rule quickly and if they avoid any grand final "hangover" that many teams suffer (Bennett is good enough to make sure they can), they should hit the ground running in 2016.
Parramatta Eels to Make The Top 8 : 40 units @ 2.00
I got this price early in the week and they have since shortened, but I would still take them down to 1.90 at a reduced stake I am that optimistic about the Eels this year. An under-rated team that for years has suffered from a bad culture and undisciplined, inconsistent performances. Last year under new coach Brad Arthur (a big improvement on predecessors Stuart and Kearney) they showed promising signs, but were still rebuilding after the loss of Jarryd Hayne. This year they have recruited brilliantly and are ready to take the next step. They've added 4 experienced players who can bring maturity, mettle and consistency to the side - 3 of those are premiership winning players who KNOW how to win. Keiran Foran (Manly 2011) will add organisational and game management skills in the halves. Beau Scott (Dragons 2010) will add steel and grit to the forward pack. Michael Jennings (Roosters 2013) adds spark to the 3/4 line, while Michael Gordon adds reliability and composure to the back field. Last year the Eels showed promise but rarely put in an 80 minute performance. If these experienced players can show leadership and improve consistency there is a lot of upside for the Eels. They've just come off a big win in the Auckland 9s pre-season competition which proves they are capable of adopting a winning culture.
South Sydney to Make The Top 4 : 20 units @ 3.50
Premiers in 2014, they had a hangover year last year without the inspirational Sam Burgess and Greg Inglis finished the year carrying injuries. But big Sam is back this year and Inglis returns fresh to lead the side back to winning ways. They lost Isaac Luke (hooker) and Dylan Walker (centre) which many consider a blow, but both of these players have lacked discipline at times and can cost their teams penalties and points. The new hooker is Damien Cook, who played a couple of games for the Bulldogs late last year and was outstanding. His pre-season has also been excellent and I think he will slot into the Souths structure beautifully so Souths won't miss Isaac Luke and it won't surprise me if everyone is raving about Damien Cook by about Round 6. Coach Maguire is a strong disciplinarian who will have the team fit and focused for the start of the season.
Melbourne Storm to Make The Top 4 : 20 units @ 3.25
Everyone likes to talk about the "Big 3" of the Storm, but in doing so they tend to under-rate the importance of Blake Green at 5/8 who had a great year last year, plus the invaluable contributions of guys like Tohu Harris, Jesse Bromwich and Kevin Proctor up front who lay the platform for those guys to succeed. Analysts also like to write off the Big 3 because they are "ageing" but in my experience NOTHING motivates players more than being told they are getting too old and are past their peak. That's why Melbourne are once again under-the-odds to make the 4, just like they were last year. That said, I may cash this one out if it's looking good before Origin season starts because injuries to those 3 during origin is always a big risk.
How much are the Tigers paying for spoon? They are a sure thing
You can get 5.00 on the Tigers to get the spoon with Ladbrokes.
I normally do bet the spoon but this year I am waiting for the early rounds to see which teams look vulnerable. Tigers are a very young team who may jag some early wins but then fall apart once the weekly grind wears the youthful enthusiasm down. A lot also depends on how the Farah / Taylor power struggle plays out.
Newcastle and the Gold Coast also look VERY ordinary to me.
The Tigers have booked their end of season trip in September to get the early bird discount
Another smaller futures bet to add :-
Penrith Panthers to MISS the Top 8 : 10 units @ 1.92
I've been a fan of the Panthers in recent years and they still have some quality backs, but there are a few red flags for me that could see them really struggle in 2016. First is the new coach Anthony Griffin - he's not the worst, he did ok up in Brisbane but still under-achieved. It's going to take him a while to get this team buying into his game plan. Secondly is the halves of Wallace and Soward. Wallace and Griffin have history and it is not great. I expect there to be a bit of instability in the halves as there is also a couple of young halves who could upset these old boys. Instability and uncertainty in the halves is NEVER good. Third is the choice of Matt Moylan as captain. He is a great player but still very young to be a captain and he may also be pushed into the halves this year which has him out of his established position. Soward in particular has a bit of a chip on the shoulder and in the crunch moments I can't see Moylan taking control of the team over Soward. Finally, and most importantly is the churn in the forward pack. The list of forwards lost from the Panthers this year reads : Brent Kite, Lewis Brown, Nigel Plum, Sika Manu and Adam Docker. That is a substantial amount of muscle lost from the pack. If the Panthers of 2016 can't make ground in the middle third then it doesn't matter how good the backs are. One thing I've learnt from NRL betting, punters always underestimate the value of a strong forward pack. I think the market hasn't yet realized there is a massive hole in the Panthers pack that will be hard to fill. Trent Merrin is a good pickup but he's just 1 guy and usually doesn't even play 80 mins.
I'm watching with interest.
I now understand how other stackers feel when reading my NHL picks, I have no clue about any of these names being thrown about.
The Roswell Crash Survivor
Top Try Scorer?
Top Try Scorer?
That really is a tough market to get right, and even tougher to get value odds for. If I had to make a selection I'd be looking for a winger in a good attacking team where that team is under-rated by the market. So probably someone like Alex Johnston from South Sydney. I see that he is up at 17.00 with Crownbet which is not a bad price considering he was the #1 Top Tryscorer in 2014 and the #3 Top Tryscorer in 2015.
So, sure. Lets throw him in there with the other futures for a small stake :-
Alex Johnston to be Top Tryscorer in 2016 : 2 units @ 17.00
Top 8.. Warriors and Easts...The more you put on the more you win.
Regards Errol 43
Foran is already in doubt for game 1 with a hamstring niggle. Was going to try and get my game 1 bets up early, but that will be risky now since Foran would be a big in/out.
Game 1 - Parramatta vs Brisbane
Penalty Goal 1st Score Type : 1 unit @ 6.50
Corey Oates 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 10.00
Anthony Milford Last Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 15.00
Halftime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 11.00
Under 19.5 Points Scored 1st Half : 4 units @ 1.95
*NOTE - I may have a late addition once status of Foran is confirmed
Def interested with some of the H2H pick to add to my multi leg
I am the Petal who like metals
I don't usually like to tip H2H too far out from kickoff, but Crownbet are running a multi special where you get a bonus to $50 if you get 3 legs of a 4 leg multi right. So I had a stab at that picking Brisbane, Canberra, Souths & Melbourne. But I'll possibly oppose one or more of those come closer to kick offs.
Foran is almost certainly out. Just the 1 bet to add :-
Brisbane -4.5 Handicap 2nd Half : 2 units @ 2.38
Game 1 Results :-
Penalty Goal 1st Score Type : 1 unit @ 6.50 = -1
Corey Oates 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 10.00 = -0.5
Anthony Milford Last Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 15.00 = -0.5
Halftime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 11.00 = -0.5
Under 19.5 Points Scored 1st Half : 4 units @ 1.95 = +3.8
Brisbane -4.5 Handicap 2nd Half : 2 units @ 2.38 = -2
Game 1 Total = -0.7 units
Reasonably comfortable with that result. The only real bad bet there was the halftime draw. In hindsight I wouldn't have put that on if I had known Foran was going to be out and it's a timely reminder of why I usually wait until much closer to kickoff to place bets. Confident the other missed bets were all under-the-odds since any of them could easily have hit for a decent payout. Both my try scorers scored but just not at the right time
Game 2 - Manly vs Bulldogs
Curtis Rona 1st Tryscorer : 1 unit @ 9.75
Curtis Rona Last Tryscorer : 1 unit @ 9.75
Curtis Rona 1st Tryscorer 2nd Half : 1 unit @ 11.50
Bulldogs Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 13.00
Bulldogs Win Match : 2 units @ 2.40
Bulldogs / Bulldogs Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 3.50
Manly Total Points Under 20.5 : 3 units @ 1.95
Game 2 Results :-
Curtis Rona 1st Tryscorer : 1 unit @ 9.75 = -1
Curtis Rona Last Tryscorer : 1 unit @ 9.75 = +8.75
Curtis Rona 1st Tryscorer 2nd Half : 1 unit @ 11.50 = -1
Bulldogs Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 13.00 = -0.5
Bulldogs Win Match : 2 units @ 2.40 = +2.8
Bulldogs / Bulldogs Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 3.50 = +2.5
Manly Total Points Under 20.5 : 3 units @ 1.95 = +2.85
Game 2 Total = +14.4 units
Pretty happy with that result
Game 3 - Canberra vs Penrith
Canberra 1st to 10 Points : 4 units @ 1.75
Canberra Over 10.5 Points 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.94
Canberra / Canberra Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 2.15
James Segeyaro To Score A Try : 1 unit @ 4.00
James Segeyaro 1st Tryscorer Penrith : 0.5 unit @ 11.50
Game 4 - Tigers vs Warriors
Over 44.5 Match Points : 4 units @ 1.90
Simon Mannerring To Score A Try : 1.5 units @ 6.00
Ben Matulino To Score A Try : 1 unit @ 5.00
Warriors -18.5 Match Handicap : 1 unit @ 3.85
Game 5 - Cowboys vs Sharks
Sharks +4.5 Handicap 1st Half : 5 units @ 1.85
Under 18.5 Points 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.87
Penalty Goal 1st Score Type : 1.5 units @ 7.00
Sharks / Sharks Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 5.25
Halftime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 12.00
Game 3 Results :-
Canberra 1st to 10 Points : 4 units @ 1.75 = +3
Canberra Over 10.5 Points 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.94 = +1.88
Canberra / Canberra Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 2.15 = -1
James Segeyaro To Score A Try : 1 unit @ 4.00 = -1
James Segeyaro 1st Tryscorer Penrith : 0.5 unit @ 11.50 = -0.5
Game 3 Total = +2.38 units
Segeyaro got injured right about the time when he would be most dangerous
Game 4 Results :-
Over 44.5 Match Points : 4 units @ 1.90 = +3.6
Simon Mannerring To Score A Try : 1.5 units @ 6.00 = +7.5
Ben Matulino To Score A Try : 1 unit @ 5.00 = -1
Warriors -18.5 Match Handicap : 1 unit @ 3.85 = -1
Game 4 Total = +9.1 units
A very typical performance from 2 teams full of players who would rather make the highlights reel than do the hard work. I never back either of them at short odds.
Game 5 Results :-
Sharks +4.5 Handicap 1st Half : 5 units @ 1.85 = -5
Under 18.5 Points 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.87 = +1.74
Penalty Goal 1st Score Type : 1.5 units @ 7.00 = -1.5
Sharks / Sharks Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 5.25 = -1
Halftime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 12.00 = -0.5
Game 5 Total = -6.26 units
Stuffed this one up betting too early again. Was expecting wet (or at least greasy) conditions and thought the Cowboys might have started flat. Sharks still did well and could be specials next week.
Game 6 - Roosters vs Souths
Roosters Under 20 Match Points : 4 units @ 1.82
Souths Win Match : 3 units @ 1.86
Souths 13+ Winning Margin : 1 unit @ 4.55
Alex Johnson 1st Tryscorer : 1 unit @ 9.00
Greg Inglis Last Tryscorer : 1 unit @ 12.00
Game 7 - Titans vs Newcastle
Under 40.5 Match Points : 3 units @ 1.95
Titans Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 15.00
Newcastle Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 15.00
This is a bit of a nothing game between 2 of the worst in the league. Absolutely anything can happen, but I am expecting a knock-on-a-thon.
Game 6 Results :-
Roosters Under 20 Match Points : 4 units @ 1.82 = +3.28
Souths Win Match : 3 units @ 1.86 = +2.58
Souths 13+ Winning Margin : 1 unit @ 4.55 = +3.55
Alex Johnson 1st Tryscorer : 1 unit @ 9.00 = -1
Greg Inglis Last Tryscorer : 1 unit @ 12.00 = -1
Game 6 Total = +7.41 units
Once again, both try scorers score but just not at the right times
Game 7 Results :-
Under 40.5 Match Points : 3 units @ 1.95 = -3
Titans Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 15.00 = -0.5
Newcastle Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 15.00 = -0.5
Game 7 Total = -4 units
Rubbish, ugly game of football. Got done over on the Unders with a meaningless penalty goal in the 78th minute and trigger happy refereeing.