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#1 2016-01-31 20:43:44

Bullion Baron
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From: Adelaide
Registered: 2009-09-14
Posts: 7,239
Trades :   139 
Website

Bullion Baron's Australian Property Chart Pack

61_bullion_baron_header_ss.gif

Residex updated their property indices to December 2015 on Friday. I have created some charts with the latest data which may be of interest to readers. Those who follow me on Twitter may already recognise a few of them. Click on any of the charts for a larger size.

Sydney's mental house price growth over the last few years. Is the peak in? I think at the minimum we have a cyclical peak forming (aka: Sydney late 2003/early 2004, expecting perhaps a 10%+ fall in the Sydney median and a nominal peak not being surpassed for 4-6 years), but Australia's expensive property market has not really been tested by a sizable economic downturn, we could see much larger falls in event we had one... Read More & More Charts

CONTINUED: Bullion Baron's Australian Property Chart Pack

Sydney%2BHouse%2BPrices.png

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#2 2016-01-31 20:59:39

SilverDJ
Member
From: Australia
Registered: 2014-11-01
Posts: 2,486

Re: Bullion Baron's Australian Property Chart Pack

You are bang-on with the 4-6 years recovery, minimum. Every Sydney investor should count on that (on average of course YMMV)

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#3 2016-01-31 21:05:57

SilverDJ
Member
From: Australia
Registered: 2014-11-01
Posts: 2,486

Re: Bullion Baron's Australian Property Chart Pack

Nice article.
Do you have a longer version of the Sydney house price graph showing the last few boom/flat cycles?
Sydney%2BHouse%2BPrices%2BInterest%2BRates.png

I bought in Sydney at the peak of the last boom, and sure enough, it was a good 5 years before it started to grow in value again. And it wasn't an overpriced home at the time, all original, no renovation, very daggy.
There are many new investors and home owner who think that house prices continue to go up every year without fail. They are in for a bit of a shock starting right now.

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#4 2016-01-31 21:23:05

silverbait
Silver Stacker
From: Sydney, Kingsford
Registered: 2015-04-12
Posts: 567
Trades :   87 

Re: Bullion Baron's Australian Property Chart Pack

When should I buy seriously?
Im renting and it costs me 250 a week.
I have been renting for the last 16 years since my arrival to Australia.
I will be leaving in Sydney for as long as I could.
Should I buy now or wait 1 or 2 years pr 5 years.
I have deposit ready for 600k unit in Sydney.

Any suggestions
Thanks


"The real question is not whether life exists after death. The real question is whether you are alive before death."  OSHO

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#5 2016-01-31 21:29:12

SpacePete
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Registered: 2014-03-01
Posts: 13,039
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Re: Bullion Baron's Australian Property Chart Pack

^^^ I'm ready to buy too, but I'm hoping to move out of Sydney.

(and watch out about buying any units constructed over the last several years... many are developing expensive maintenence issues)

.

Last edited by SpacePete (2016-01-31 21:30:33)


The law's duty is to protect the innocent, not to make them prove their innocence.

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#6 2016-01-31 21:39:21

ozcopper
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From: Australia
Registered: 2009-07-16
Posts: 13,672
Website

Re: Bullion Baron's Australian Property Chart Pack

silverbait wrote:

When should I buy seriously?
Im renting and it costs me 250 a week.
I have been renting for the last 16 years since my arrival to Australia.
I will be leaving in Sydney for as long as I could.
Should I buy now or wait 1 or 2 years pr 5 years.
I have deposit ready for 600k unit in Sydney.

Any suggestions
Thanks

$250 per week is very cheap!

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#7 2016-01-31 21:40:01

ozcopper
Administrator
From: Australia
Registered: 2009-07-16
Posts: 13,672
Website

Re: Bullion Baron's Australian Property Chart Pack

SilverPete wrote:

^^^ I'm ready to buy too, but I'm hoping to move out of Sydney.

(and watch out about buying any units constructed over the last several years... many are developing expensive maintenence issues)

.

Where are you hoping to move to?

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#8 2016-01-31 21:50:40

Skyrocket
Silver Stacker
From: Melbourne
Registered: 2014-07-20
Posts: 4,591
Trades :   35 

Re: Bullion Baron's Australian Property Chart Pack

^  I bet SP just wants to move out of crap hole Sydney  tongue

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#9 2016-01-31 22:09:29

SpacePete
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Registered: 2014-03-01
Posts: 13,039
Trades :   118 
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Re: Bullion Baron's Australian Property Chart Pack

ozcopper wrote:
SilverPete wrote:

^^^ I'm ready to buy too, but I'm hoping to move out of Sydney.

(and watch out about buying any units constructed over the last several years... many are developing expensive maintenence issues)

.

Where are you hoping to move to?

Back down to Vic.


The law's duty is to protect the innocent, not to make them prove their innocence.

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#10 2016-01-31 22:10:04

SpacePete
Silver Stacker
Registered: 2014-03-01
Posts: 13,039
Trades :   118 
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Re: Bullion Baron's Australian Property Chart Pack

Skyrocket wrote:

^  I bet SP just wants to move out of crap hole Sydney  tongue

Spot on tongue


The law's duty is to protect the innocent, not to make them prove their innocence.

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#11 2016-01-31 22:13:22

Skyrocket
Silver Stacker
From: Melbourne
Registered: 2014-07-20
Posts: 4,591
Trades :   35 

Re: Bullion Baron's Australian Property Chart Pack

silverbait wrote:

When should I buy seriously?
Im renting and it costs me 250 a week.
I have been renting for the last 16 years since my arrival to Australia.
I will be leaving in Sydney for as long as I could.
Should I buy now or wait 1 or 2 years pr 5 years.
I have deposit ready for 600k unit in Sydney.

Any suggestions
Thanks


Wait after the coming crash  wink

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#12 2016-01-31 22:30:54

Bullion Baron
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From: Adelaide
Registered: 2009-09-14
Posts: 7,239
Trades :   139 
Website

Re: Bullion Baron's Australian Property Chart Pack

SilverDJ wrote:

Nice article.
Do you have a longer version of the Sydney house price graph showing the last few boom/flat cycles?

Thanks. This is as far as I have back:

61_sydney.png

silverbait wrote:

When should I buy seriously?
Im renting and it costs me 250 a week.
I have been renting for the last 16 years since my arrival to Australia.
I will be leaving in Sydney for as long as I could.
Should I buy now or wait 1 or 2 years pr 5 years.
I have deposit ready for 600k unit in Sydney.

Any suggestions
Thanks

I may be wrong (so DYOR, make your own decisions), but if we see a cycle similar to the last one (and I expect we will) then Sydney may bottom around 2-3 years from the peak. That's what I'd be waiting for (around late 2017-2018) and submitting low ball offers while sentiment remains poor.

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#13 2016-01-31 23:05:53

willrocks
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From: Yesterday
Registered: 2012-05-10
Posts: 7,576
Trades :   29 

Re: Bullion Baron's Australian Property Chart Pack

Bullion Baron wrote:

I may be wrong (so DYOR, make your own decisions), but if we see a cycle similar to the last one (and I expect we will) then Sydney may bottom around 2-3 years from the peak. That's what I'd be waiting for (around late 2017-2018) and submitting low ball offers while sentiment remains poor.

Unless we go into a Japanese style market. Then it could take 15+ years.


"You can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality." - Ayn Rand

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#14 2016-01-31 23:33:47

silverbait
Silver Stacker
From: Sydney, Kingsford
Registered: 2015-04-12
Posts: 567
Trades :   87 

Re: Bullion Baron's Australian Property Chart Pack

ozcopper wrote:
silverbait wrote:

When should I buy seriously?
Im renting and it costs me 250 a week.
I have been renting for the last 16 years since my arrival to Australia.
I will be leaving in Sydney for as long as I could.
Should I buy now or wait 1 or 2 years pr 5 years.
I have deposit ready for 600k unit in Sydney.

Any suggestions
Thanks

$250 per week is very cheap!

Im sharing so my part is 250 total rent is 450 a week in Eastlakes NSW.
2 bedroom old building falling apart smile If I want to buy very same unit I need to pay $600K smile


"The real question is not whether life exists after death. The real question is whether you are alive before death."  OSHO

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#15 2016-01-31 23:43:33

Bullion Baron
Silver Stacker
From: Adelaide
Registered: 2009-09-14
Posts: 7,239
Trades :   139 
Website

Re: Bullion Baron's Australian Property Chart Pack

willrocks wrote:

Unless we go into a Japanese style market. Then it could take 15+ years.

Would be foolish to rule out any scenario, but the situation in Japan was fairly different to here. Their housing market peaked in tandem with a stock market bubble. Their population growth declined over that 15+ year bust. There is no doubt in my mind though that Australian property could be facing more than a cyclical bust, but that risk has been around for 10-15 years already, that's a long time for someone to wait to buy a home...

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#16 2016-01-31 23:48:03

willrocks
Silver Stacker
From: Yesterday
Registered: 2012-05-10
Posts: 7,576
Trades :   29 

Re: Bullion Baron's Australian Property Chart Pack

Bullion Baron wrote:
willrocks wrote:

Unless we go into a Japanese style market. Then it could take 15+ years.

Would be foolish to rule out any scenario, but the situation in Japan was fairly different to here. Their housing market peaked in tandem with a stock market bubble. Their population growth declined over that 15+ year bust. There is no doubt in my mind though that Australian property could be facing more than a cyclical bust, but that risk has been around for 10-15 years already, that's a long time for someone to wait to buy a home...

I agree that it's a less than likely scenario. But a longer correction period shouldn't be discounted just yet.

If I were buying a home to live in, I probably wouldn't wait more than 2-4 years. Any longer than that and you're just gambling with your time.


"You can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality." - Ayn Rand

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