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#1 2016-01-03 21:30:25

Bullion Baron
Silver Stacker
From: Adelaide
Registered: 2009-09-14
Posts: 7,261
Trades :   139 
Website

Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

61_bullion_baron_header_ss.gif

I saw The Big Short recently and this quote flashed up on the screen:

"Everyone, deep in their hearts, is waiting for the end of the world to come." ― Haruki Murakami, 1Q84

But my advice would be not to live your whole life waiting for, planning for, or even hoping for, the next "big crash" (either of the financial system or housing market, arguably the two are joined at the hip in many modern economies).

That might sound odd coming from someone who's analysis, speculation and investments led them to buy a lot of precious metals and write under a handle like 'Bullion Baron'. Some readers may picture me as a nutter with a bunker full of long life food, guns and Gold, just waiting to live out the financial apocalypse 'doomsday prepper' style, but the reality is far less intense.

I'm not saying you shouldn't be prepared for and insure yourself against financial catastrophe, but once you have done so, go out and live a little. The last significant purchase of Gold I made was in late 2014 (after accumulating in the dips periodically in the 6 years prior). I have recently felt comfortable buying a home again in my local property market, Adelaide. I have also been spending a fair amount of time and capital over the last several months working on a new business venture (one reason my posts here have been less frequent) and with the recent news that the Australian government will be incentivising investment in startups I may continue to put money in this space... Read More

CONTINUED: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

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#2 2016-01-03 22:01:15

JulieW
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2010-10-14
Posts: 10,997

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

I've been waiting since 1976. Stopped waiting in 1991. Started waiting again in 2007. Stopped in 2014, but everything's in place. Just in case.

p.S. Waiting again.

lol

Last edited by JulieW (2016-01-03 22:04:51)

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#3 2016-01-03 22:08:30

Peter
Member
From: sydney
Registered: 2009-07-27
Posts: 2,476

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

I think that if it was going to blow, it would have by now.


....................................
"It is no measure of health to be well-adjusted to a sick society." ~ Jiddu Krishnamurti

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#4 2016-01-03 22:44:27

Skyrocket
Silver Stacker
From: Melbourne
Registered: 2014-07-20
Posts: 4,756
Trades :   36 

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

But the big crash has got to come!  The world is financially rooted and can't keep going powered by credit. 2016-17 GFC is coming. I know where silver went to after last GFC.  At these low prices I'll keep stacking thanks.  cool

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#5 2016-01-03 23:20:08

Agnostic
Silver Stacker
Registered: 2013-06-13
Posts: 385
Trades :   24 

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

Nice article BB.

Prepping has an opportunity cost. Every hour of time, every dollar of supplies, every square metre, are resources that could have been invested elsewhere.

I think of it as end of the world insurance, and also for precious metals as a stabilising factor in overall investment returns.  But I am cautious about putting too much into this category.

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#6 2016-01-03 23:48:09

Bullion Baron
Silver Stacker
From: Adelaide
Registered: 2009-09-14
Posts: 7,261
Trades :   139 
Website

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

Peter wrote:

I think that if it was going to blow, it would have by now.

Not sure if that is reference to the Australian property market, but it's not yet been tested by a local recession, I'll reserve judgment until then smile

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#7 2016-01-03 23:49:58

Bullion Baron
Silver Stacker
From: Adelaide
Registered: 2009-09-14
Posts: 7,261
Trades :   139 
Website

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

Skyrocket wrote:

But the big crash has got to come!  The world is financially rooted and can't keep going powered by credit. 2016-17 GFC is coming. I know where silver went to after last GFC.  At these low prices I'll keep stacking thanks.  cool

I'm not saying 'don't stack', but it would be a good idea to have a target number of ounces or % of your assets and then move on to other opportunities smile

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#8 2016-01-04 00:09:26

Ronnie 666
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2011-03-16
Posts: 2,401
Trades :   175 

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

Patience : It will come not as quickly as you expect but faster than you would like !

According to Jesse Livermore

1. "Money is made by sitting, not trading."

2. "It takes time to make money."

3. "It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting."

4. "Nobody can catch all the fluctuations."

5. "The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money everyday, as though they were working for regular wages."

6. "Buy right, sit tight."

7. "Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."

8. "Don't give me timing, give me time."


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#9 2016-01-04 00:19:32

Skyrocket
Silver Stacker
From: Melbourne
Registered: 2014-07-20
Posts: 4,756
Trades :   36 

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

Bullion Baron wrote:
Skyrocket wrote:

But the big crash has got to come!  The world is financially rooted and can't keep going powered by credit. 2016-17 GFC is coming. I know where silver went to after last GFC.  At these low prices I'll keep stacking thanks.  cool

I'm not saying 'don't stack', but it would be a good idea to have a target number of ounces or % of your assets and then move on to other opportunities smile




I agree to diversify is best.  In this climate and at these artificially low prices gotta have some in physical PMs  smile

Also, as sammysilver often advises to pay off all your debts first. Especially mortgage.  Being debt free is best if one can do it   cool

Here's to the coming big crash  tongue

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#10 2016-01-04 00:34:53

JulieW
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2010-10-14
Posts: 10,997

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

There was a previous SS member whose advice was leverage but be your own central bank and back your loans with PMs. There is a place for debt and if you expect any inflation then it's a good plan to have debt against earning assets.

Ps non recourse.

Last edited by JulieW (2016-01-04 00:41:52)

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#11 2016-01-04 00:56:46

wrcmad
Silver Stacker
From: Northern NSW
Registered: 2012-01-02
Posts: 6,092
Trades :   118 

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

Ronnie 666 wrote:

Patience : It will come not as quickly as you expect but faster than you would like !

According to Jesse Livermore

1. "Money is made by sitting, not trading."

2. "It takes time to make money."

3. "It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting."

4. "Nobody can catch all the fluctuations."

5. "The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money everyday, as though they were working for regular wages."

6. "Buy right, sit tight."

7. "Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."

8. "Don't give me timing, give me time."

9. November 28, 1940 - Jesse Livermore dies by his own hand, via a revolver bullet through the brain. He was bankrupt, and had been suffering from depression and in his suicide note he describes his life as a "failure".


Anything is possible, but not everything is probable.  wink

Manipulation..... If you want to continually subscribe to this idea then get out of precious metals. Only a fool would play a game that is completely rigged. As you still are in the game, I would say that you are not completely convinced of the manipulation ...

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#12 2016-01-04 02:00:20

trew
Silver Stacker
From: Melbern
Registered: 2011-08-24
Posts: 3,958
Trades :   

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

wrcmad wrote:

9. November 28, 1940 - Jesse Livermore dies by his own hand, via a revolver bullet through the brain. He was bankrupt, and had been suffering from depression and in his suicide note he describes his life as a "failure".

According to wikipedia he wasn't bankrupt - he left $5 million in cash and trusts

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#13 2016-01-04 02:25:10

wrcmad
Silver Stacker
From: Northern NSW
Registered: 2012-01-02
Posts: 6,092
Trades :   118 

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

trew wrote:
wrcmad wrote:

9. November 28, 1940 - Jesse Livermore dies by his own hand, via a revolver bullet through the brain. He was bankrupt, and had been suffering from depression and in his suicide note he describes his life as a "failure".

According to wikipedia he wasn't bankrupt - he left $5 million in cash and trusts

According to Wikipedia, he left $5 million in cash and untouchable trusts.
According to other sources, he was broke.


Anything is possible, but not everything is probable.  wink

Manipulation..... If you want to continually subscribe to this idea then get out of precious metals. Only a fool would play a game that is completely rigged. As you still are in the game, I would say that you are not completely convinced of the manipulation ...

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#14 2016-01-04 03:57:36

JulieW
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2010-10-14
Posts: 10,997

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

p.s.

Predicting 2016 (in 2013)
(worth a look imho)

Predicting numbers every few months.
Got a big call wrong and seems to have found god.

Both say October November 2016.

Be prepared in case any of it is real.

Last edited by JulieW (2016-01-04 04:00:35)

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#15 2016-01-04 05:20:50

wrcmad
Silver Stacker
From: Northern NSW
Registered: 2012-01-02
Posts: 6,092
Trades :   118 

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

JulieW wrote:

Both say October November 2016.

Be prepared in case any of it is real.

No need to worry, all the previous years crashes were barely noticeable. I'm sure this year's will be much the same wink :

Peter Schiff: Why An Economic Crash Is Coming In 2015? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agZe2CHt0GQ
Ron Paul Warnings For 2015: Economic Collapse & Martial law! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWH4gooIHI0
MARKET CRASH 2015 - Peter Schiff & Mike Maloney (Part 1) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RapC2-oxSRM
Gold, Silver & Currency Economic Collapse Is Coming 2015 - Robert Kiyosaki https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ry9EsotYsH4
Alex Jones - Super Shemitah Predicts Economic Collapse in 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5M7NngNW70
Peter Schiff: Predicts Economic Crash by 2015!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DJG-i9K918

Economic Collapse 2014: Peter Schiff Predicts an Economic Collapse Worse than 2008 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fHtn_1dejY
Peter Schiff: Upcoming 2014 Economic Collapse https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqaNYOOT5cg
Ron Paul Martial Law and Economic Collapse 2014 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQgu_CCKivs
Gerald Celente: Total Economic Collapse in Q1 2014 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNWbt5snq2c
Jesse Ventura - America Economic Collapse Coming 2014 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYxVhIVIfqI

......... OK, I'm bored now. tongue


Anything is possible, but not everything is probable.  wink

Manipulation..... If you want to continually subscribe to this idea then get out of precious metals. Only a fool would play a game that is completely rigged. As you still are in the game, I would say that you are not completely convinced of the manipulation ...

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#16 2016-01-04 05:52:00

Ronnie 666
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2011-03-16
Posts: 2,401
Trades :   175 

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

wrcmad wrote:
trew wrote:
wrcmad wrote:

9. November 28, 1940 - Jesse Livermore dies by his own hand, via a revolver bullet through the brain. He was bankrupt, and had been suffering from depression and in his suicide note he describes his life as a "failure".

According to wikipedia he wasn't bankrupt - he left $5 million in cash and trusts

According to Wikipedia, he left $5 million in cash and untouchable trusts.
According to other sources, he was broke.

Gosh you are so smart wrcmad - contradicting yourself. Google not working for you?
Oh well you are now bored and looking to trash someone else's post.....
Just the sort of sound advice we need on SS. roll


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#17 2016-01-04 06:30:29

wrcmad
Silver Stacker
From: Northern NSW
Registered: 2012-01-02
Posts: 6,092
Trades :   118 

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

Ronnie 666 wrote:
wrcmad wrote:
trew wrote:

According to wikipedia he wasn't bankrupt - he left $5 million in cash and trusts

According to Wikipedia, he left $5 million in cash and untouchable trusts.
According to other sources, he was broke.

Gosh you are so smart wrcmad - contradicting yourself. Google not working for you?
Oh well you are now bored and looking to trash someone else's post.....
Just the sort of sound advice we need on SS. roll

No. Untouchable trusts was cash he could not access - he had no accessable trading capital - broke.

Just found it interesting that you recommend advice from someone who was a trader first, and also so depressed with their own results, that they necked themselves. lol


[Edit by Bullion Baron: Removed inappropriate final sentence]

Last edited by wrcmad (2016-01-04 06:31:12)


Anything is possible, but not everything is probable.  wink

Manipulation..... If you want to continually subscribe to this idea then get out of precious metals. Only a fool would play a game that is completely rigged. As you still are in the game, I would say that you are not completely convinced of the manipulation ...

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#18 2016-01-04 06:48:04

SilverDJ
Member
From: Australia
Registered: 2014-11-01
Posts: 2,502

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

Skyrocket wrote:

Also, as sammysilver often advises to pay off all your debts first. Especially mortgage.  Being debt free is best if one can do it   cool

Any regular Joe Bloggs who doesn't aspire to be debt free is doing it wrong.
Having a place to live no one can kick you out of, and a few years worth of cash/PM's/whatever to live on means you are set without any worries. Any extra income you then get can be spent on, invested by way of new debt, or pissed away on whatever you want. You always have that base to fall back on.
I have a friend who loved housing debt and was a fan of never paying off your house. I argued for a debt free lifestyle, paying off as soon as possible, and then hording cash you'd otherwise be paying in interest. He asked "What good is having all that cash?" I did the sums per year on what I would save in interest and it equaled a several month world trip every year for the rest of my life. He was a tad jealous when I told him that smile

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#19 2016-01-04 08:22:24

JulieW
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2010-10-14
Posts: 10,997

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

Not the TEOTWAWKI scenario, but if you're not covered for a big crash around the US election time then get researching for some safety.

The signs DO look bad.

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#20 2016-01-04 09:45:35

Ronnie 666
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2011-03-16
Posts: 2,401
Trades :   175 

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

wrcmad wrote:
Ronnie 666 wrote:
wrcmad wrote:

According to Wikipedia, he left $5 million in cash and untouchable trusts.
According to other sources, he was broke.

Gosh you are so smart wrcmad - contradicting yourself. Google not working for you?
Oh well you are now bored and looking to trash someone else's post.....
Just the sort of sound advice we need on SS. roll

No. Untouchable trusts was cash he could not access - he had no accessable trading capital - broke.

Just found it interesting that you recommend advice from someone who was a trader first, and also so depressed with their own results, that they necked themselves. lol


[Edit by Bullion Baron: Removed inappropriate final sentence]

Your empathy and concern for the wellbeing new members of SS is quite touching. I think I would trust the advice of Jesse Livermore on trading and markets over the expert advice of wrcmad any day of the week. No offense...


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#21 2016-01-04 16:17:03

Lovey80
Member
From: Sunshine Coast, QLD
Registered: 2011-05-08
Posts: 2,459
Trades :   29 

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

Bullion Baron wrote:
Skyrocket wrote:

But the big crash has got to come!  The world is financially rooted and can't keep going powered by credit. 2016-17 GFC is coming. I know where silver went to after last GFC.  At these low prices I'll keep stacking thanks.  cool

I'm not saying 'don't stack', but it would be a good idea to have a target number of ounces or % of your assets and then move on to other opportunities smile

I'm in a consolidation phase where I needed cash for a different investment and believed that there would be another depressed buying op before PM's really started to see their true value again.

I will return to stacking heavily soon with a 1000/100 silver/gold target. Once achieved and other assets grow I want to keep that as a minimum but have no more than 20% in PM's

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#22 2016-01-04 16:54:16

wrcmad
Silver Stacker
From: Northern NSW
Registered: 2012-01-02
Posts: 6,092
Trades :   118 

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

Ronnie 666 wrote:
wrcmad wrote:
Ronnie 666 wrote:

Gosh you are so smart wrcmad - contradicting yourself. Google not working for you?
Oh well you are now bored and looking to trash someone else's post.....
Just the sort of sound advice we need on SS. roll

No. Untouchable trusts was cash he could not access - he had no accessable trading capital - broke.

Just found it interesting that you recommend advice from someone who was a trader first, and also so depressed with their own results, that they necked themselves. lol


[Edit by Bullion Baron: Removed inappropriate final sentence]

Your empathy and concern for the wellbeing new members of SS is quite touching.

Why thankyou smile . Finally we see some common ground.
I like to try and highlight the BS before it taints their innocent minds.
Maybe that is why we cross paths so often and you perceive it as "trashing".

Ronnie 666 wrote:

I think I would trust the advice of Jesse Livermore on trading and markets over the expert advice of wrcmad any day of the week. No offense...

No offense taken... I wasn't giving advice? You were. smile
However they may also like to ponder the consequences of taking advice from someone who doesn't understand fundamental economic terms such as real inflation-adjusted, derivative, backwardation, or any other Baldrickism.


Anything is possible, but not everything is probable.  wink

Manipulation..... If you want to continually subscribe to this idea then get out of precious metals. Only a fool would play a game that is completely rigged. As you still are in the game, I would say that you are not completely convinced of the manipulation ...

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#23 2016-01-04 19:07:31

aleks
Silver Stacker
From: Karl-Marx-Allee
Registered: 2010-10-14
Posts: 2,391
Trades :   27 

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

Live for the next Big commodities bull market


Only you have your best financial interest at heart, be your own guru

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#24 2016-01-04 21:34:49

Ronnie 666
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2011-03-16
Posts: 2,401
Trades :   175 

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

wrcmad wrote:
Ronnie 666 wrote:
wrcmad wrote:

No. Untouchable trusts was cash he could not access - he had no accessable trading capital - broke.

Just found it interesting that you recommend advice from someone who was a trader first, and also so depressed with their own results, that they necked themselves. lol


[Edit by Bullion Baron: Removed inappropriate final sentence]

Your empathy and concern for the wellbeing new members of SS is quite touching.

Why thankyou smile . Finally we see some common ground.
I like to try and highlight the BS before it taints their innocent minds.
Maybe that is why we cross paths so often and you perceive it as "trashing".

Ronnie 666 wrote:

I think I would trust the advice of Jesse Livermore on trading and markets over the expert advice of wrcmad any day of the week. No offense...

No offense taken... I wasn't giving advice? You were. smile
However they may also like to ponder the consequences of taking advice from someone who doesn't understand fundamental economic terms such as real inflation-adjusted, derivative, backwardation, or any other Baldrickism.

Wow you are making such a contribution we are all humbled by your wise words.
All you are doing is launching a personal attack - no one cares .... least of all me.
Find another post to derail....as this is not your post.
I wonder what BB had to delete. Typical roll


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#25 2016-01-04 22:39:50

wrcmad
Silver Stacker
From: Northern NSW
Registered: 2012-01-02
Posts: 6,092
Trades :   118 

Re: Bullion Baron: Don't Live And Die Waiting For The Big Crash

Ronnie 666 wrote:

I wonder what BB had to delete. Typical roll

Waiting in bewilderment is your specialty. Keep at it. wink


Anything is possible, but not everything is probable.  wink

Manipulation..... If you want to continually subscribe to this idea then get out of precious metals. Only a fool would play a game that is completely rigged. As you still are in the game, I would say that you are not completely convinced of the manipulation ...

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