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  • » LEON's weekly COT report analysis

#51 2015-04-30 09:45:34

Ronnie 666
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2011-03-16
Posts: 2,402
Trades :   175 

Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Not so fast Leon.....

As I said several posts ago banks can fall into several categories - this is the definition of traders from the cot.

Content of the Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report

Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

A "producer/merchant/processor/user" is an entity that predominantly engages in the production, processing, packing or handling of a physical commodity and uses the futures markets to manage or hedge risks associated with those activities.

Swap Dealer

A "swap dealer" is an entity that deals primarily in swaps for a commodity and uses the futures markets to manage or hedge the risk associated with those swaps transactions. The swap dealer's counter parties may be speculative traders, like hedge funds.

Money Manager

A "money manager," for the purpose of this report, is a registered commodity trading advisor (CTA); a registered commodity pool operator (CPO); or an unregistered fund identified by CFTC. These traders are engaged in managing and conducting organized futures trading on behalf of clients.


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#52 2015-04-30 09:53:44

leon1998
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Ronnie, you seriously need to do some homework here.

Plot Swap dealers' position vs gold price first, then do the same for money manager. Do this in a two year time frame; and show us what you got.

Gee, am I in a kinder garden.  tongue

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#53 2015-04-30 10:00:53

Ronnie 666
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

leon1998 wrote:

Ronnie, you seriously need to do some homework here.

Plot Swap dealers' position vs gold price first, then do the same for money manager. Do this in a two year time frame; and show us what you got.

Gee, am I in a kinder garden.  tongue

Leon you are the last person on the SS forum to advise on doing homework. You constantly blurt out the same drivel over and over and over again in multiple posts without any substance. Keep up these great posts we are all learning how smart you are .......not.


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#54 2015-04-30 10:03:19

leon1998
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

For peeps who refuse to do any homework, let them fail

1,180 USD now

price keep falling tongue

Last edited by leon1998 (2015-04-30 10:04:23)

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#55 2015-04-30 10:08:16

Ronnie 666
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Leon this post is getting a bit long in the tooth why don't you write a new post - prices are falling. You can add that to your last 10 posts - prices are falling ......just so us old folks won't miss your great insight into the workings of the financial markets. You know us old guys can miss stuff, if you don't post the same thing over and over and over again.


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#56 2015-04-30 10:14:30

ozcopper
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Ronnie 666 wrote:

Leon this post is getting a bit long in the tooth why don't you write a new post - prices are falling. You can add that to your last 10 posts - prices are falling ......just so us old folks won't miss your great insight into the workings of the financial markets. You know us old guys can miss stuff, if you don't post the same thing over and over and over again.

Leon is a troll, prob works for the PPT wink


I will be away from the forum from Sunday 9th - Saturday 15th April.

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#57 2015-05-01 01:45:07

Ronnie 666
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

I was just going through old COT reports and came across this report from the COT 2011

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/01/un … -gold.html

This is the area of interest :(underlined)

From the disaggregated COT data, it is pretty clear who was behind this week's weakness in the gold bullion market, and it wasn't the big U.S. reporting banks – this time.  Indeed, as spot or cash market gold was moving 1% lower for the week (Tuesday to Tuesday), the category of COMEX commercial traders the CFTC classes as Producer/Merchant/Processor/Users (PMs); the category of traders that we believe includes the largest U.S. bullion banks, covered or offset 16,173 contracts of their existing net short positioning, moving from 149,434 to 133,261 lots net short.

So Leon according to the COT themselves the Bullion banks are represented mostly on the category of  Producer/Merchant/Processor/Users not in the swap dealers as you maintain..... So Leon I did my homework and found you wanting. Yes as Oz puts it a troll !


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#58 2015-05-01 08:14:53

leon1998
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Ronnie, you did NOT do your own homework; instead, you just copied somebody else's. big_smile

And COT at 2011? why don't you copy someone recent homework, ? tongue

Which is worse in humanity, stupidity or laziness?

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#59 2015-05-01 09:08:50

Ronnie 666
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Posts: 2,402
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

leon1998 wrote:

Ronnie, you did NOT do your own homework; instead, you just copied somebody else's. big_smile

And COT at 2011? why don't you copy someone recent homework, ? tongue

Which is worse in humanity, stupidity or laziness?

You are joking aren't you - the Cot has changed since 2011....lol
I read through about 6 months of report to find this reference.
Laziness hahaha Leon you should start with someone else as you have no idea who you are dealing with.
No one takes you seriously so find another forum to troll


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#60 2015-05-01 09:16:51

leon1998
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

As Ronnie keeps trolling, gold price keeps dropping. big_smile

Sometimes stupidity is beyond your imagination. tongue

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#61 2015-05-01 16:43:28

Ronnie 666
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

As your argument is blown out of the water you then attack the messenger. You impart no knowledge only vitriol.
When your lack of understanding is shown to others, you attack to cover and distract. You have not answered a simple question, you give no explanation except to call me stupid and lazy. Leon you are done. No one cares what you say or what you post. You actions have shown who you are. If you believe that others on this forum who know me, think I am stupid or lazy then you seriously underestimate them.


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#62 2015-05-01 17:12:11

leon1998
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

When Oldsoul attacked my posts, the moderator of this forum did absolutely NOTHING to stop it.

I start to believe attacking peeps is a forum culture of this site.

How do you feel after being hit tongue

Last edited by leon1998 (2015-05-01 17:12:39)

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#63 2015-05-01 17:31:02

Oldsoul
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

leon1998 wrote:

When Oldsoul attacked my posts, the moderator of this forum did absolutely NOTHING to stop it.

I start to believe attacking peeps is a forum culture of this site.

How do you feel after being hit tongue


Yup I think you an idiot.  Still do.

I think what differentiates you from me is that you have a habit of starting multiple threads back to back which pretty much amounts to vandalism and an attempt to disrupt free speech..it is difficult to see how you can appeal to free speech to protect you in your disturbed behaviour. If you were banned for this I would not particularly care as you add nothing of note to any exchange. You do this on other website forums too not just here and engage in trolling and cross posting to an extent that, like I said makes me believe you are possibly a disturbed minor.

As regards your 'analysis' I really don't think you have any track record.

PMs have a seasonality long established that rotates in late spring/early summer, you, having been finally educated to that fact some time ago have proceeded to try and present yourself as something you are not and repost profound nonsense. Unless you have some revelation relating to why you engage in this - I see you as just another disturbed person loose on the internet.

I note you have developed pretentions towards day trading. I doubt you will listen but nonetheless prepare to loose every penny you bet, in your case I doubt this amounts to more than accumulated pocket money provided to you by someone with a job..


"I will show you fear in a handful of dust." t.s. eliot

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#64 2015-05-01 17:31:46

Ronnie 666
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From: Australia
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Leon you really don't understand do you. Oldsoul attacked you because you were making unsubstantiated comments. You were saying things like gold is going to $900. You were doing this over and over and over again in multiple posts. Now you may believe this - good for you but if you want others to accept it, you need to explain and demonstrate proof and evidence. No one will criticise you for laying out a succinct argument, right or wrong. But you didn't do that, instead we got more rhetoric, more posts every time prices dropped. When prices went up you disappeared.

By the way, you did not hurt me. All you did was to demonstrate to everyone that no one should take you seriously and that you need to start thinking rather than posting. Take this as constructive advice...


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#65 2015-05-01 17:37:16

leon1998
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Two trolling morons jumped up and down in my threads.

They just lost so much in their stacks since 2011 and didn't want to hear the truth; how pathetic.

tongue

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#66 2015-05-01 18:05:01

Oldsoul
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

leon1998 wrote:

Two trolling morons jumped up and down in my threads.

They just lost so much in their stacks since 2011 and didn't want to hear the truth; how pathetic.

tongue

Actually I lost all my PMs in a boating accident but since I bought long before 2011 and have done nothing but swap into different forms the pile at the bottom of the ocean has show for me appreciable gains and inherent advantages.

Why did you never reply to my comments relating to Elliot waves in your failed prediction thread  in February?

I think it is because you have almost no actual understanding of the material you post whether it be pretentions to technical analysis reposts or the complexities of futures markets.



I see you posting in another place touting your new found knowledge of seasonality that you actually gained here. You troll to get responses and use the responses to try and make yourself sound like you have a clue.

It is a bit disturbed Leon - can't you see that?

You do realise that trying to cause forum wars (as you have done by discussing this site elsewhere) is a bit lame?

So I still see you in the same way; If you want to rise to the dizzy heights of more than three line troll posts some day or spamming forums then someone may begin to give a shite. Neither do I believe that your dream goal of buying a few ASEs at 17 points to you having any substantial skin to put in any game. Otherwise you would be mentioning kilos.

That's the logic and observation that makes me thing you are a minor with personality issues.

By the way...you won't make money trading seasonality with a handful of one ounce coins either kiddo. Sorry to burst your bubble. I won't tell you why either because naturally I don't particularly care what happens to your pocket money.

You must be green with jealousy of those that have a lot of physical bought at the turn of the century. Try getting a job if you want wealth instead of sitting on your arse posting vapour and living some deranged fantasy where you are some kind of market maker.

Last edited by Oldsoul (2015-05-01 18:28:39)


"I will show you fear in a handful of dust." t.s. eliot

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#67 2015-05-05 09:23:40

Kam
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Registered: 2012-12-30
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Where is Leon ?

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#68 2015-05-06 12:47:38

Pirocco
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Ronnie 666 wrote:

I was just going through old COT reports and came across this report from the COT 2011

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/01/un … -gold.html

This is the area of interest :(underlined)

From the disaggregated COT data, it is pretty clear who was behind this week's weakness in the gold bullion market, and it wasn't the big U.S. reporting banks – this time.  Indeed, as spot or cash market gold was moving 1% lower for the week (Tuesday to Tuesday), the category of COMEX commercial traders the CFTC classes as Producer/Merchant/Processor/Users (PMs); the category of traders that we believe includes the largest U.S. bullion banks, covered or offset 16,173 contracts of their existing net short positioning, moving from 149,434 to 133,261 lots net short.

So Leon according to the COT themselves the Bullion banks are represented mostly on the category of  Producer/Merchant/Processor/Users not in the swap dealers as you maintain..... So Leon I did my homework and found you wanting. Yes as Oz puts it a troll !

You are quoting a gotgoldreport.com "we believe" containing sentence, as a "COT themselves".

This is the CFTC / COT themselves:
http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@ … orynot.pdf
http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@ … ynotes.pdf
"Dealer Intermediary"
"The Dealer Intermediary represents "Sell Side" participants. These include large banks (U.S. and non-U.S.) and dealers in securities, swaps and other derivatives. Typically, these are dealers and intermediaries that earn commissions on selling financial products, capturing bid/offer spreads and otherwise accommodating clients."

These are some 3rd party explanations / repeats:
www.upperman.com/webshare/2011/cot-jan2011.pdf <- which trader classes are typical "sell-side" and which are typical "demand-side".
http://www.myfxbook.com/commitments-of-traders

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ … dodd-frank
...and finally the COT, themselves, again:
http://www.cftc.gov/LawRegulation/DoddF … swapdealer
"Provisionally Registered Swap Dealers

A list of provisionally registered swap dealers is listed below. This list is current as of May 5, 2015."
...

BARCLAYS BANK PLC

DEUTSCHE BANK AG

HSBC BANK PLC

HSBC BANK USA NA

JP MORGAN SECURITIES LLC

JP MORGAN SECURITIES PLC

JP MORGAN VENTURES ENERGY CORPORATION

JPMORGAN CHASE BANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION

UBS AG
...

Swap dealers are entities that are intermediaries in the trading with pension funds and endowments.
During the past decade, the latter arrived on the precious metal markets, to chew out speculators money, using swap dealers as their intermediary in their buy/sell actions.
Aboves banks are all registered as swap dealers.
They all together form the London Bullion Market Association.

So whatever you and some others called user leon1998, there are quite some sources, including the COT itself (unlike your false claim), that support the statement that bullion banks reside under the swap dealer trader class in the COT report.
Not as a "rule" or so, just based on their predominant activity at the time, and that time includes the last update / most recent.


Silver won't save you if you act as clueless and careless as with your bank account.
Get in- not disinformed. Last is easiest, visit www.zerohedge.com & Co and hurry to their bullion shops.
Futures: http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … ilver.html #9
Central Banks inflict you less gold and fiat: http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … tners.html #19

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#69 2015-05-06 14:50:50

Oldsoul
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

leon1998 wrote:

Latest weekly gold COT report showed Commercials have been increasing short contracts and reducing long contracts, both aggressively. My experience tells that Commercials are setting up a prolonged price slump for gold and silver.

Pirocco wrote:

As I said and explained: a focus on short positions by commercials is totally useless.




Commercials are in both categories but certainly not exclusively in swaps because they can't spread which account for a fair whack of position in that category. As far as I'm concerned this thread is just inverted harvy organing to the same endless purpose.



And  you yourself say in black and white that a focus on short positions by commercials is totally useless. earlier in the thread which kinds of makes you inconsistent to say the least as you are denying the very basis of this BS thread.


The statement that the banks are in fact trading in the role of commericals exclusively as swaps is shite. The commercials are well known to be in both categories.

So lets look at the movement in those two categories since the report that started this thread

Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Did they move long or short

Overall reduced short positions by -7203

Swap Dealers

Overall increased short position by +5786


Calculated by me from
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders-All Futures Combined Positions as of April 28, 2015             
:                                             Reportable Positions                             

Vs

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders-All Futures Combined Positions as of April 7, 2015             
:                                             Reportable Positions       


So overall since this thread was started the commercials are actually dropped 1417 short positions (because they are either in : Producer/Merchant/Processor/User or Swap Dealers and *cannot* spread. So the whole basis of this meaningless thread is utter BS. However I'm sure some would be statistician will leap in with something complex 'looking' for no reason.


Seasonality I will say it again Seasonality.

By the way P I think you are fully aware Ronnie was basically correct and are just stirring the pot pointlessly.


"I will show you fear in a handful of dust." t.s. eliot

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#70 2015-05-06 17:53:19

Ronnie 666
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From: Australia
Registered: 2011-03-16
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Oldsoul perhaps it's time to leave Leon and his minions to themselves. The U.S. Stock market is looking very scary and many forecasters with a somewhat better record than Leon or Pirocco are getting jumpy on the stocks and US$. The MACD of the U.S. stocks are now rolling over and the US$ index has slipped below 95. If you think now is a great time to sell gold go with Leon. My view is that things over the next months and years for gold are looking very golden. It patently obvious that Leon is simply trying to get people to panic and sell thir position or buy shorts on the PM at a time when no one has a clue about what is happening day to day. Longer term it is obvious that this ginormous bubble in stocks, bonds and the US$ has a meeting with destiny. Pirocco believes that we will not live to see that day and as a mayfly heading into the month of May he may be right as mayflies live for only 1 day. Seriously, most SS know what Leon is all about so it's pointless posting any more. Leave him to post as many negative unsubstantiated comments as he likes. When no one cares he will move to greener pastures.


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#71 2015-05-07 09:49:52

tolly_67
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Gold will be below $1000 before the years is out. Leon knows it and is trying to show as best as he can how it's going to happen.
Gold is barely treading water at the moment.....no strength at all.
Gold will have its day....but not just yet.
If you don't agree with Leon then ignore him. At least he has a position and is sticking to it.

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#72 2015-05-07 10:09:07

Oldsoul
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

tolly_67 wrote:

Gold will be below $1000 before the years is out. Leon knows it and is trying to show as best as he can how it's going to happen.
Gold is barely treading water at the moment.....no strength at all.
Gold will have its day....but not just yet.
If you don't agree with Leon then ignore him. At least he has a position and is sticking to it.


He posts random nonsense ranging from shite like Elliot waves to one liners about futures markets. He also has a long history of bogus price calls on silver and starting multiple one line threads back to back. He has been trolling the forums here since February and believe me vanishes from the threads he starts when he gets it utterly wrong very quickly indeed. 

You may not be aware of his propensity to cross post frantically across different websites and use the replies he gets as further material.

if you wanted to read reasoned bear market thinking leon is not where you will get it any more than you would get reasoned bull market thinking from kwn. He is a spammer and a troll.


I have a question for you;

When is the gold market at its weakest seasonally(the fact leon picked up here he is trying to spin into something more with his shite)?

When is it at its strongest seasonally?

And you are calling gold sub 1000 * at year end*? You understand that would represent at 20% drop allowing a 4% or so for seasonal variation from here?

Do you have any reasoning for this remarkable event? Please understand Leon was *factually incorrect* in his prediction based on his 'experience' regarding increasing short positions and in fact the commercials have reduced their short position....

Last edited by Oldsoul (2015-05-07 10:31:36)


"I will show you fear in a handful of dust." t.s. eliot

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#73 2015-05-07 12:20:22

Phiber
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From: Australia
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Posts: 1,651
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

What a waste of energy, trying to predict the price of gold either way. Seriously guys, it's all stabs in the dark!


ヽ(´ー`)ノ

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#74 2015-05-07 14:45:30

tolly_67
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

I think we could be about to mirror the bottom of the mid boom retracement in 1976.
Gold dropped from just over $130 in May to be at $105 by late August. This is a 20% drop.
Apply to the price of around $1200 today and you end up with about $970.
More than enough to convince many that the bull market in gold is over but proof enough for me that the retracement is over.
The recovery out from the low back to the peak will make a 'V' shape.....so 4 more years before we reach a new high and another 4 before it makes the $5000 mark.   
I hope you all have until 2023 at least.

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#75 2015-05-07 15:25:04

Pirocco
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Oldsoul wrote:
Pirocco wrote:

As I said and explained: a focus on short positions by commercials is totally useless.

Commercials are in both categories but certainly not exclusively in swaps because they can't spread which account for a fair whack of position in that category. As far as I'm concerned this thread is just inverted harvy organing to the same endless purpose.

And  you yourself say in black and white that a focus on short positions by commercials is totally useless. earlier in the thread which kinds of makes you inconsistent to say the least as you are denying the very basis of this BS thread.

The focus on short is useless, since a short position implies the existence of a long position.
So, the word "position" suffices.
The only inconsistency is your reaction on "short positions" instead of "short".

Oldsoul wrote:

The statement that the banks are in fact trading in the role of commericals exclusively as swaps is shite. The commercials are well known to be in both categories.

I didn't say 'exclusively'.
I even added in my last post that the presence of the lbma banks in the swap dealer list as published by the COT wasn't a "rule". It's just how it is, at the moment of the last update of that list.

Oldsoul wrote:

So lets look at the movement in those two categories since the report that started this thread

Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Did they move long or short

Overall reduced short positions by -7203

Swap Dealers

Overall increased short position by +5786


Calculated by me from
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders-All Futures Combined Positions as of April 28, 2015             
:                                             Reportable Positions                             

Vs

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders-All Futures Combined Positions as of April 7, 2015             
:                                             Reportable Positions       


So overall since this thread was started the commercials are actually dropped 1417 short positions (because they are either in : Producer/Merchant/Processor/User or Swap Dealers and *cannot* spread. So the whole basis of this meaningless thread is utter BS. However I'm sure some would be statistician will leap in with something complex 'looking' for no reason.


Seasonality I will say it again Seasonality.

By the way P I think you are fully aware Ronnie was basically correct and are just stirring the pot pointlessly.

Ronnie666 claimed that the COT itself said that, while it was a gotgoldreport.com statement, and they even worded it as "WE BELIEVE".
A by the way for you: that's lying. I think you are fully aware, and your own pot stirring should be your concern, not mine.

User leon1998 uses the COT report to have a clue about the coming price trend. That's what I do myself too. Only that I really don't care who has what position, all I care is the total net position of the futures market as a whole, all longs + all shorts, supply and demand side of course equal and inverted.
A focus on swap dealers is a focus on an interesting club on the futures market: the club along which pension funds and endowments, being large / systemic entities. The documentation says that this is a relatively new phenomenon, they didn't before the bull market, and they are then responsible for a part of that price trend up. Following specific position trends may give some insight in who takes the initiative of buying or selling, of a trade. If for ex a long position holder dumps the long position, then the counterparty dumps a short position as a reaction. Recognizing the initiating side may help interpreting the COT report, and give a clue about what's going on in the market, and what will happen with the price trend to come.

It's clear that some people do not like this, and equally clear why.
About the purpose: predicting the gold price trend to come, well, what would the gold price trend have been without central banks net purchases since 2010 or so? From 400 tonnes selling per year to 400 tonnes buying per year. That's an 800 tonnes supply/demand change, a double price trend effect.
What if they revert to selling it again? It's what they've done for decades.
Gold ETF's, existing since 2004, still have 2/3 of their peak stock. They sold 880 tonnes in 2013 and 159 tonnes in 2014.
And general prices far from rising like many thought. Rather the opposite.
So I can't see much reason to have other expectations than leon1998's.
I do understand that some may not have finished loading off high to suckers that BELIEVE bulls.


Silver won't save you if you act as clueless and careless as with your bank account.
Get in- not disinformed. Last is easiest, visit www.zerohedge.com & Co and hurry to their bullion shops.
Futures: http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … ilver.html #9
Central Banks inflict you less gold and fiat: http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … tners.html #19

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