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#26 2015-04-24 14:29:37

Oldsoul
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From: Aghartha
Registered: 2014-06-11
Posts: 1,187
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

leon1998 wrote:

Told you so,  Shock and Awe tongue

gold 1178 USD            silver 15.60 USD


Funny I see you on other forums telling people to buy gold at 1225 earlier in the year. I see you making bogus predictions on silver. I see you starting multiple threads and continuously throwing numbers out you get in reply from posters here and other places when you start these multiple threads, with no understanding of why others guess at certain figures. I see you citing nonsense like Elliot waves and screaming for attention. I see you talking about buying a couple of bits of silver at 19.

Your another mug who thinks they can guess futures in commodities and peg an exact number on them.

The only thing I actually see is you looking for attention. I get you don't understand PMs or Forex or the fact not everyone is working in US dollars. Gold has been quite good compared to other currencies since last October.

I see a lonely teenager looking for attention by trying to be irritating to others and actually failing. You run around on any downside price fluctuation like crab and in the end of the day tell no one anything. Like I say above you are the most wonderful contrarian indicator. You seem to think that buying physical PMs is some sort of analogue for day trading..

Your posts....the three lines of drivel with an emoticon...sigh. Your assumption that everyone buys off bullion dealers or that they set market prices...cross posting on different forums word for word over and over...get a life kid.

I genuinely think you are a minor now so won't banter with you. I really have better things to do than encourage a disturbed teen in a  disturbed behaviour.

Last edited by Oldsoul (2015-04-24 14:33:06)


"I will show you fear in a handful of dust." t.s. eliot

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#27 2015-04-25 16:45:05

leon1998
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From: United States
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Weekly COT report: WARNING SIGN FLASHING !!!

Banks have been increasing short contracts against gold in the past week; when everyone else was reducing shorts. Apparently Banks knew something about this coming FOMC meeting; ahead of time as usual.

Gold might suffer another smackdown to 1,150 USD next week; prolly on Wednesday FOMC minutes. tongue

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#28 2015-04-25 19:34:24

SpacePete
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Registered: 2014-03-01
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

leon1998 wrote:

Weekly COT report: WARNING SIGN FLASHING !!!

For future reference: dXprkI7.gif
Source: Drudge Report


The law's duty is to protect the innocent, not to make them prove their innocence.

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#29 2015-04-25 19:40:08

Ronnie 666
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2011-03-16
Posts: 2,383
Trades :   175 

Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

leon1998 wrote:

Weekly COT report: WARNING SIGN FLASHING !!!

Banks have been increasing short contracts against gold in the past week; when everyone else was reducing shorts. Apparently Banks knew something about this coming FOMC meeting; ahead of time as usual.

Gold might suffer another smackdown to 1,150 USD next week; prolly on Wednesday FOMC minutes. tongue

Leon I am confused - Technical analysis say otherwise ? show us your proof that banks are increasing their short positions this past week ????

http://www.kereport.com/2015/04/24/thou … or-postma/

On April 24, 2015 at 4:02 pm,
RICHARD-DOC says:   

Commercials on the COT report show a decrease in short positions in the PMs. We'll move lower next week and it'll be interesting if the shorts on next week's report are decreased more and if long positions are put on. We have to have a bounce in May. If we get that, the summer months are going to be interesting—-we have to get through them to keep the lows in .

I know lets go buy shares and bonds - The Fed has my back .......what can go wrong ?


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#30 2015-04-25 19:50:31

sterling-nz
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Registered: 2015-01-20
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Ronnie 666 wrote:
leon1998 wrote:

Weekly COT report: WARNING SIGN FLASHING !!!

Banks have been increasing short contracts against gold in the past week; when everyone else was reducing shorts. Apparently Banks knew something about this coming FOMC meeting; ahead of time as usual.

Gold might suffer another smackdown to 1,150 USD next week; prolly on Wednesday FOMC minutes. tongue

Leon I am confused - Technical analysis say otherwise ? show us your proof that banks are increasing their short positions this past week ????

http://www.kereport.com/2015/04/24/thou … or-postma/

On April 24, 2015 at 4:02 pm,
RICHARD-DOC says:   

Commercials on the COT report show a decrease in short positions in the PMs. We'll move lower next week and it'll be interesting if the shorts on next week's report are decreased more and if long positions are put on. We have to have a bounce in May. If we get that, the summer months are going to be interesting—-we have to get through them to keep the lows in .

I know lets go buy shares and bonds - The Fed has my back .......what can go wrong ?

Good question Ronnie, i to would like to see the proof for the statement.
This is your chance to shine Leon:)

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#31 2015-04-25 20:07:08

Ronnie 666
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From: Australia
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Richard Postma is not the only one talking about commercial short positions falling. Even our old mate Harvey Organ is saying the same thing.


http://www.silverdoctors.com/harvey-org … s-go-long/


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#32 2015-04-25 20:31:59

sterling-nz
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Ronnie 666 wrote:

Richard Postma is not the only one talking about commercial short positions falling. Even our old mate Harvey Organ is saying the same thing.


http://www.silverdoctors.com/harvey-org … s-go-long/

Harvey Organ is and organ.
A GIANT DICK!!!

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#33 2015-04-25 20:50:57

Ronnie 666
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From: Australia
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

I put no store in Harvey's interpretations or predictions but he does accurately report the daily moves in open interest in the metal markets. All I am saying is that there are many people showing that commercials have a shrinking short position on PM and Leon says otherwise ?


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#34 2015-04-26 18:10:11

sterling-nz
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Ronnie 666 wrote:

I put no store in Harvey's interpretations or predictions but he does accurately report the daily moves in open interest in the metal markets. All I am saying is that there are many people showing that commercials have a shrinking short position on PM and Leon says otherwise ?

Hoky toky then.
I see you asked leon a reasonable question regarding his proof of statement.
Leon has not bothered to reply to your very reasonable request and this is leading me to believe that there is no proof and he is just making stuff up.
In light of his absence of back up data would you say it is a fair call if i was to say leon is full of hot air and has no idea what he is talking about?
Thats what i am going with unless he can answer your very reasonable request smile

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#35 2015-04-26 22:03:10

Holdfast
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From: Australia
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

I heard from a guy on youtube that silver is headed to $9.80 USD.

I'll try to find the video. smile

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#36 2015-04-26 22:19:27

Holdfast
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Ahh...here it is. smile

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#37 2015-04-26 22:39:05

phrenzy
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From: Adelaide
Registered: 2014-10-18
Posts: 2,550
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Holdfast wrote:

Ahh...here it is. smile

That video is 6 months old, not sure it's a prediction that came true given where silver was then and is now. I hate to say it but I think the resident crab CJ was closer to the mark.


R.I.P Khaled Al Assad. One man who few will remember, he died defending humanities legacy.
"Hundreds would die, but not the thing they died for. 'A man can stand up..."

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#38 2015-04-27 02:20:49

Holdfast
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Predictions, predictions, predictions. big_smile

At least one member picked up on the sarcasm; see post 35.  wink

Last edited by Holdfast (2015-04-27 17:52:21)

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#39 2015-04-27 14:11:26

Pirocco
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Ronnie 666 wrote:

I put no store in Harvey's interpretations or predictions but he does accurately report the daily moves in open interest in the metal markets. All I am saying is that there are many people showing that commercials have a shrinking short position on PM and Leon says otherwise ?

That's the logical problem that is stumbled on when judging a situation occurs on basis of selections of thewhole instead of the whole (total net position).
A shrinking short position of commercials implies a shrinking long position of noncommercials.
A focus on short or long is therefore totally useless.
The total net position can be seen as a trendline (the green one, or the sum of blue and red) on http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=d1
You can see that it fluctuated in recent months, more than usual in recent years (higher frequency of the fluctuations).
Meaning that claims made on a moment, can get outdated as quick as the fluctuations period.


Silver won't save you if you act as clueless and careless as with your bank account.
Get in- not disinformed. Last is easiest, visit www.zerohedge.com & Co and hurry to their bullion shops.
Futures: http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … ilver.html #9
Central Banks inflict you less gold and fiat: http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … tners.html #19

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#40 2015-04-27 16:32:24

Ronnie 666
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From: Australia
Registered: 2011-03-16
Posts: 2,383
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Good one Pirocco - clear as mud. Our discussion was on the short positions by the commercials in gold. Now you are discussing silver ?
roll

When I say you are "discussing silver" that is a very loose term.

I think it's clear that one thing is crystal clear  - no one knows anything anymore, and certainly not Leon who has vanished from this discussion when he was asked a simple question. Let us not go off on tangents we are all waiting.......Leon.....


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#41 2015-04-27 17:04:34

Pirocco
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Ronnie 666 wrote:

Good one Pirocco - clear as mud. Our discussion was on the short positions by the commercials in gold. Now you are discussing silver ?
roll

When I say you are "discussing silver" that is a very loose term.

I think it's clear that one thing is crystal clear  - no one knows anything anymore, and certainly not Leon who has vanished from this discussion when he was asked a simple question. Let us not go off on tangents we are all waiting.......Leon.....

Do you think golds story is different?
Replace SI with GC in the urls, compare and conclude.
Or, if you like figures (some don't haha) just directly visit http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm and http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/Commi … /index.htm for older.
Gold and silver and palladium and others are shown in a same page.
As I said and explained: a focus on short positions by commercials is totally useless. A seller implies a buyer. Every short has a long against it. Usually, the large and small traders classes form the initiative-taking side, the commercials just follow. They have to. How on Earth can a short position continue to exist if its long counterparty disappeared, and thus no dollars to draw from or move to?
And, what I say is as clear as mud as the ctfc site and other sources explain it. Apparently, their definition of 'mud' differs from yours.
What I noticed is that some don't like to see certain things explained in detail. I think that vested interest in zero sum markets never likes.
Then, your question (woohoo!).
Where you're waiting for the answer (woohoo!)
Well, answer it yourself, the links are right above here.

GOLD - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders - Futures Only, April 21, 2015
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Long: 21,523
Short: 75,074
> Net: -53,551 (minus, so net short)

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders - Futures Only, April 14, 2015
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Long: 23,642
Short: 83,946
> Net: -60,304 (minus, so net short)

So question:
"Commercials have been increasing short contracts against gold in the past week?".
Answer:
"Yes".

The used terminology (commercials, noncommercials, etc) is btw outdated.
Explanation here: http://www.tradingmarkets.com/eminis/tr … 00675.html

I've a question too: do you like mud?


Silver won't save you if you act as clueless and careless as with your bank account.
Get in- not disinformed. Last is easiest, visit www.zerohedge.com & Co and hurry to their bullion shops.
Futures: http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … ilver.html #9
Central Banks inflict you less gold and fiat: http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … tners.html #19

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#42 2015-04-27 17:43:43

Ronnie 666
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From: Australia
Registered: 2011-03-16
Posts: 2,383
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

As usual Pirocco you give half the picture. Firstly and most importantly ignored by you in all your misinformation is  the -8872 in the short commercial positions. That is a larger fall,than the -2119 under the longs for the so called commercials. For an ignorant sod like myself -8000 is a bigger fall than -2000. Also which group do the commercial banks fall into. From my understanding they are spread across several categories. Yes for every long there is a short the question is who holds the positions. When you have something that is clear unambiguous and can be interpreted by mere mortals please post it. Also you continually quote only some data missing out important and key points.


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#43 2015-04-27 18:03:03

Ronnie 666
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

1302_cot1.jpg


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#44 2015-04-27 18:12:45

Ronnie 666
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From: Australia
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

By the way where is Leon ???? That was the point of this post ??Now you have all seen the COT report what is Leon going to say ? I have only 1 word TROLL sad


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#45 2015-04-29 14:38:49

Pirocco
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Ronnie 666 wrote:

As usual Pirocco you give half the picture. Firstly and most importantly ignored by you in all your misinformation is  the -8872 in the short commercial positions. That is a larger fall,than the -2119 under the longs for the so called commercials. For an ignorant sod like myself -8000 is a bigger fall than -2000. Also which group do the commercial banks fall into. From my understanding they are spread across several categories. Yes for every long there is a short the question is who holds the positions. When you have something that is clear unambiguous and can be interpreted by mere mortals please post it. Also you continually quote only some data missing out important and key points.

I gave you the picture that was your focus.
I said, many times on this forum, that a focus on short or long, on supply or demand, is a selection, that thus left out the rest of the picture.
That's why I use the total net position, supply side and demand side equal and inverted, so applying to both, simply because a sold ounce requires a purchased one .
And now you "blame" me that I gave half the picture. It started from your selection, so please check the mirror.
I have for you the same word you used for the topics author: TROLL !
An honest discussion is one that addresses a same subject. You selected different. Bah?

Last edited by Pirocco (2015-04-29 14:39:07)


Silver won't save you if you act as clueless and careless as with your bank account.
Get in- not disinformed. Last is easiest, visit www.zerohedge.com & Co and hurry to their bullion shops.
Futures: http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … ilver.html #9
Central Banks inflict you less gold and fiat: http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … tners.html #19

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#46 2015-04-29 17:03:49

Ronnie 666
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From: Australia
Registered: 2011-03-16
Posts: 2,383
Trades :   175 

Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Pirocco as usual a clear and succinct explanation. We now all understand........Sorry the number speak for themselves. big_smile
By the way where is Leon ??


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#47 2015-04-30 09:03:05

leon1998
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Ronnie 666,

Read the detailed CFTC report here:
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Swap dealers are heavily shorting the gold; their short/long ratio is about 2:1 tongue

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#48 2015-04-30 09:22:37

Niveka
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Registered: 2015-01-15
Posts: 307
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Pirocco wrote:
Ronnie 666 wrote:

I put no store in Harvey's interpretations or predictions but he does accurately report the daily moves in open interest in the metal markets. All I am saying is that there are many people showing that commercials have a shrinking short position on PM and Leon says otherwise ?

That's the logical problem that is stumbled on when judging a situation occurs on basis of selections of thewhole instead of the whole (total net position).
A shrinking short position of commercials implies a shrinking long position of noncommercials.
A focus on short or long is therefore totally useless.
The total net position can be seen as a trendline (the green one, or the sum of blue and red) on http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=d1
You can see that it fluctuated in recent months, more than usual in recent years (higher frequency of the fluctuations).
Meaning that claims made on a moment, can get outdated as quick as the fluctuations period.

So Pirocco, to over simplify a bit, would it be safe to say that when the green trendline is below zero spot is likely to continue in a downward pattern and when the green trendline is above zero its likely that spot will be going up?


A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory.  LLAP

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#49 2015-04-30 09:30:12

Ronnie 666
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2011-03-16
Posts: 2,383
Trades :   175 

Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

leon1998 wrote:

Ronnie 666,

Read the detailed CFTC report here:
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Swap dealers are heavily shorting the gold; their short/long ratio is about 2:1 tongue

Leon am I missing something or can't you see the report 4 posts up. I dont need you to post it again ?  To make it easy I highlighted the changes in the shorts and longs. So according to you as you originally posted - Let me remind you of your exact words "Latest weekly gold COT report showed Commercials have been increasing short contracts and reducing long contracts, both aggressively the banks piled into the shorts and reduced their longs.

WRONG !!!! according to the COT report they didn't. I am done discussing this with you as any 5 year old can read and know that -8000 is a bigger fall than -2000. Work it out yourself. roll


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#50 2015-04-30 09:34:17

leon1998
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From: United States
Registered: 2014-11-26
Posts: 671
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Re: LEON's weekly COT report analysis

Ronnie, you did miss the very important thing, SWAP DEALERS! They're the market-makers, i.e. banks.

You elderly need a magnifying glass tongue

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