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#51 2014-08-05 19:52:15

SpacePete
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

AinslieBullion wrote:

...What makes this particularly scary are the following 2 graphs courtesy of Zero Hedge.

Zero Hedge is the Michael Bay of financial reporting. Lots of entertaining explosions but only a tenuous connection to reality.

AinslieBullion wrote:

Think we are immune in Australia?  If you are wondering how the major banks are offering these new cheap 5 year fixed rates when our cash rate is unchanged, you may be surprised (shocked/scared) to know it is through accessing cheap funds from overseas banks.  We are as linked into this mess as anyone…

The banks may see an extended period of disinflation or even secular stagnation.


Catus amat piscem, sed non vult tingere plantas

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#52 2014-08-06 19:02:26

AinslieBullion
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

Euro on the brink?
Overnight we saw Italy's GDP negative for a second consecutive quarter and hence in recession, making this its 3rd recession since the GFC.  Italy is the Eurozone's 3rd largest economy after Germany and France.  In addition to negative growth they also have over EUR2t in debt making their debt to GDP (2013, so worse this year) ratio 128% and youth unemployment over 43%.  We discussed in last week's weekly wrap radio too that after the supposed powerhouse Germany printed a 0.1% CPI figure and the Eurozone as a whole only 0.4% (the lowest since 2009), fears of deflation are escalating.  The second largest economy France, just reported an all time record high 3.4m people unemployed which is up 4% on a year ago.  Russia ramping up retaliation for the sanctions (and the imminent threat of outright war of which sent gold and silver up strongly overnight) and fears of contagion of the Portugal banking failure, will only exacerbate an already perilous Euro economic situation.

10245485_769329393106523_4009302178668968659_n.jpg
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#53 2014-08-07 19:14:07

AinslieBullion
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

A bird in the hand….
We haven't talked about backwardation for some time but it is now happening again, the first time since May.  As a reminder, the following is a nice little summation by James Turk:
"Whenever backwardation occurs - which in theory should not happen at all because of the arbitrage opportunity it represents - it is a sign of stress in the physical market for gold. Basically, it means that there is not sufficient metal on hand at current prices, or to put it another more meaningful way, people would rather own physical gold and pass up the profit available from the arbitrage by selling their physical metal and owning a national currency instead.
Backwardation is eventually eliminated when sufficient physical metal turns up to bring the market back into balance. This generally means that the metal has to come from existing stocks because physical metal cannot be conjured up out of thin air with bookkeeping entries, which occurs all the time with national currencies. This reality conveys one of physical gold's key strengths, and why it has served so well as money for 5,000 years."

Any holder of real, physical gold and silver should take great comfort in these sorts of forces at play.


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#54 2014-08-10 18:53:52

AinslieBullion
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

Waning Chinese Gold Demand
After headlines of softer jewellery gold demand in July for China and slower Hong Kong imports (because they can now officially bring straight into Beijing 'quietly') the graph below puts it back into perspective.  Respected analyst Koos Jansen digs into the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) more than most and says this in regard to the graph below:
"Using SGE withdrawals as a reference, China mainland has net imported 670.7 tonnes year to date. Based on net imports, Chinese mining, a jewellery base of 2,500 tonnes in 1995 and guessing how much the PBOC has accumulated since 2009, total estimated Chinese gold reserves stand at 14,901 tonnes as of July 25."
If you are wondering about the "guess" bit, the Peoples Bank of China has not told the world how much gold it holds in reserves since 2009 when it revealed 1054t, a relatively small amount at 2% of foreign reserves.  Since then they, as a country, have been rampant buyers and producers, now the biggest in both.  What we don't know for sure is how much the government has kept.  Koos estimates around 4000t (and there are others estimating well above that), which the Chinese know that if officially confirmed would send shockwaves around the world and end their wonderful run of buying up cheap.
On any account this is not a graph showing any material signs of waning demand.

China-gold-reserves-Jul14.jpg
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#55 2014-08-12 19:05:23

AinslieBullion
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

Turbo boosting your Precious Metails purchase
An often overlooked element of investing in precious metals by new comers is the AUD / USD dynamic.  A recent BusinessDay survey predicted an Aussie dollar of 86c by 30 June 2015.  In recent months the AUD has been trading between 93c and 94c.  Gold and Silver spot prices are determined in USD so without any change in the spot metal price, those that buy in AUD now would see a 9% increase in the value of their metal in AUD terms.  Combining that with any increase in the PM spot prices which have a host of compelling fundamentals in their corner, and it gets pretty exciting.
The BusinessDay forecasting panel comprises 25 of Australia's leading forecasters in the diverse fields of market economics, academia, consultancy and industry associations. It includes several former Treasury forecasters. Over time its average forecasts have proved to be more reliable than those of any of individual member.

We're also proud to announce, 'The Year of the Goat' gold and silver coins - will be available for Pre-Order from 1st September 2014 with Ainslie Bullion.

10570378_772168072822655_7410250337078935474_n.jpg
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#56 2014-08-13 18:37:45

AinslieBullion
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

Seasonality of Gold Prices
Many don't realise there is a reasonably predictable pattern to the gold price within each calendar year.  The graph below shows gold price gains per month over the last 30 years.  There are a number of factors that influence this.  Over half of all gold produced is used in jewellery and after the northern hemisphere summer vacation the price starts to rise as demand for jewellery ramps up for the harvest and wedding festivals beginning in September in India (until last year the world's largest consumer of gold). This is followed by festive season holidays in the United States and then Chinese New Year, with China now the largest consumer in the world.  We are now at about that sweet spot where prices historically start to rise in earnest.

gold%20seasonality.png
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#57 2014-08-14 19:35:02

AinslieBullion
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

Gold as Insurance....

The motive for investing in gold and silver varies widely from person to person.  For some it is simply because it is real money, for others it is a speculative play for huge capital growth, and for some it is a defensive hard asset amongst all the 'paper' instrument exposure.  Many think of it simply as insurance.   For many of us our house is our biggest investment.  We all insure our house against the potential ravages of fire, flood or wind when the vast majority of us have and probably will never see that eventuate, yet we do it unequivocally. 

Why then do so many not insure the balance of their wealth against forces beyond their control – the ravages of financial crisis, stockmarket crash, war or high inflation?  Throughout the ages gold and silver have outperformed in times of economic or political crisis.  Unlike your house insurance premium though, it is not a sunk cost to do so.  Indeed gold and silver provide capital appreciation on your investment (insurance premium) over time.  Those regular readers of ours and observers of what is really happening in the world can see the global debt and easy money fuelled cyclone approaching.  Those that own gold and silver do not fear it as they will likely profit from it.


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#58 2014-08-17 19:08:00

AinslieBullion
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

WGC Q2 report
The World Gold Council's second quarter report on Gold Demand Trends revealed jewellery demand, which represents 53% of all demand, has maintained its broad upward trend since 2009; investment demand increased 4% to 235t as a whole from Q2 2013 but physical bar and coin demand is down with outflows from ETF's much lower making up the net increase; technology use fell just 3% to 101t as manufacturers look for alternative and retail sales are subdued globally; central bank net purchases were up strongly at 28% or 118t; and mine supply increased 13% taking the total supply increase to 10% to 1078t.
Topically on the central bank figure the following quote came from Russia late last week which says it all..
"Due to the worsening geopolitical situation, the Central Bank actively redistributed foreign exchange reserves, replacing US Treasury bonds with gold,"

And here is a Panda.
10612654_774467712592691_2076139520597935204_n.jpg
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#59 2014-08-18 19:11:46

AinslieBullion
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

The other 'safe haven'

Never was there a more conflicting or confusing graph than that below.  Whilst gold and silver are widely regarded as a safe haven in times of economic or geopolitical upheaval, so too (traditionally) are treasuries or government bonds.
When people are concerned about protecting their wealth, demand for treasuries goes up and so does their price, and correspondingly down goes their yield.  So why is the yield dropping on 30 year US Treasuries at the same time as shares are increasing (supposedly a sign 'all is good')?  For a start we've spoken before about the direct correlation between money printing and the share price, and whilst since tapered, it is still happening and apparently still working.  Also large publicly listed companies are using the cheap money available to buy up their own shares hence reducing the number of outstanding shares and hence increasing their price in response and making it look like 'all is good'.  So there seems to be a growing number of people prepared to buy treasuries at yields barely above or even below the rate of inflation to protect their money at the expense of growing it.  Last week German treasuries dropped below 1% yield!
The problem with treasuries is you still have the counterparty risk of that government paying you back and limited prospects of capital gain.  In gold and silver you have a safe haven that is at low prices (not high like Treasuries), that presents no counterparty risk, and the prospect of considerably more capital gain.

S&P%20v%2030Y%20UST.jpg

Philharmonic Gold Coin - Available with Ainslie - http://goo.gl/oMXY2b
1-oz-goldcoin-PHILHARMONIC.jpg
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#60 2014-08-18 19:56:42

spannermonkey
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

Now your beginning to make it look like an ad for yourself's
This should really be in the sales section roll


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#61 2014-08-18 20:05:42

SpacePete
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

spannermonkey wrote:

Now your beginning to make it look like an ad for yourself's
This should really be in the sales section roll

But aren't all these stories essentially "buy gold & silver" stories?


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#62 2014-08-18 20:07:49

spannermonkey
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

SilverPete wrote:
spannermonkey wrote:

Now your beginning to make it look like an ad for yourself's
This should really be in the sales section roll

But aren't all these stories essentially "buy gold & silver" stories?

Being regurgitated wink
It's the links to their website at the end of the post roll


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#63 2014-08-19 08:17:23

SweetBread
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

I just realised I need to buy more silver!

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#64 2014-08-19 19:14:41

AinslieBullion
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

The price of risk
Yesterday we discussed the anomaly of a soaring US sharemarket and ultra low US treasury yields.  One of the key reasons people are entering the sharemarket is a search for yield or risk.  As Dr John Hussman describes:  "Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time."  So as the US Fed (and most other Central Banks) drives interest rates to zero and has been buying up US treasuries suppressing those yields, investors have flocked to shares for perceived returns.  However it appears to have gone too far.  He estimates the market is double its historical valuation norms and "estimate that the S&P 500 will achieve zero or negative nominal total returns over horizons of 8 years or less".  That disconnect from sense is called a bubble.  The following 4 graphs illustrate this exactly.
Oh, and the relevance for Australia?  We've all heard the adage "The US sneezes and we catch the cold".  Moreover a crashing US sharemarket inevitably sees a flight to gold and silver, and that's a good thing if you already own it.

nyse.jpg
Q%20ratio.jpg
buffet.jpg
cape.jpg


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#65 2014-08-20 19:37:05

AinslieBullion
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

Whatever it takes
Listeners to our weekly wrap radio will be well familiar with the continual news of a struggling Euro zone.  In the midst of the Euro crash their central bank head Mario Draghi famously said:
'Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.'
Since then he has tried zero interest rates, negative interest rates, and free loans but the graph below shows the result.  He has hinted at outright money printing (ala US's QE, China, Japan and UK) but just says they are 'preparing' for it.  We've spoken before about money printing and GDP and its worth keeping the graph below in mind before they inevitably start and comparing later.  As Japan, the US and China (and UK to a lesser extent given they went a bit easier on the money printing) have shown, the new money only works for a little while but makes the core issue much much worse, and sets up a bigger crash when that inevitably happens too.  At the risk of sounding like a broken record… you can't 'print' gold and silver…they are REAL money.


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#66 2014-08-21 19:16:04

AinslieBullion
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

The US Fed's Dilemma
As gold slid down this week on growing speculation of a raise in interest rates sooner than expected in the US, we should pause and consider they also just hit a record debt to GDP figure of 102% and wonder why that is not getting the headlines?  In July the US budget deficit grew another $95 billion taking the fiscal year to date deficit to $460b.  So far this fiscal year the US has borrowed 15.7c of every dollar it has spent and now carries the burden of no less than $17.7 trillion. 

Their dilemma is to either raise interest rates and increase payments on their debt and risk driving the US back into a depression; or as Kirk Lindstrom puts it "If the Fed makes the same mistake it made in the past, keeping rates too low for too long and we get massive inflation where they have to raise rates to double digits again to crash the economy and contain inflation, then gold should soar."  So whilst pundits have bet this week on an earlier rate rise by selling gold and buying shares because 'all is good' right now, they should maybe pause and both look below the surface of these employment numbers as we have reported before, and look ahead to a Wall Street without QE and past behaviours, and see a bit of gold as a very wise part of a balanced portfolio ready for either eventuality.

friday-22nd-august-2014-ainslie-radio-.jpg
Source:
Also check out today ' Ainslie Radio' for a snapshot of the week, all things bullion.

goo.gl/PLfroc


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#67 2014-08-24 19:12:31

AinslieBullion
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

Indian Precious Metals
Last week Indian officials announced they were in no hurry to repeal the gold import restrictions as their current account deficit simply could not handle the jump in (official) gold imports that would inevitably follow. The graph below however illustrates the extent to which silver imports have risen in response, with 2559 t imported year to date.  When you consider this together with our previous report on the declining silver stocks on the Shanghai Exchange at a time when the price is below many miner's cost of production it highlights the extent of silver demand in key eastern markets.  Stepping back a little, consider that the 10% import duty is applied to both gold and silver.  Silver imports have increased since it was introduced whereas gold has markedly decreased.  Verified reports of rampant gold smuggling abound, however silver's relative bulk (both in $/oz and relative density) makes smuggling all but impossible.  One can only wonder at the real extent of gold smuggling going on and where (if?) that fits in already strong global gold demand figures.

india%20silver.png
Source:


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#68 2014-08-25 20:26:47

AinslieBullion
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

Going broke

The US's own Congressional Budget Office (CBO) last month issued a report bringing forward their forecast on when the US will go broke.  They now project this will happen in just 15 years' time, 2030, rather than their previous estimate of 2050.  How can this happen?  It is a combination of the obvious actions of the past and present, and less talked about future obligations.  Simply, the US Government has not run a real surplus budget since the 60's.  So to be clear, they have spent more than they have received (through taxes etc) for 40 years.  In the throes of desperation trying to stimulate the post GFC economy they have increased it no less than 400% over 6 years funded largely by just printing the world's reserve currency.  Their debt now stands at around $17.7 trillion.  But that is just the beginning.  They have future unfunded obligations that are committed, like social welfare and medicare that they don't even put on their balance sheet.  The Government's own CBO say they are $15 trillion short of what is need to meet these needs over the next 75 years, but independent analysts have this number much much higher (go to the excellent http://www.usdebtclock.org/ for an eye opening experience).

Why are we raising this?  Because it highlights our continual message that we are living in a world reliant on ever increasing debt and that is simply unsustainable.  It highlights the tenuous nature of the whole system and that when it goes pop, which it will, you'd like to have some of your wealth in real money that can't be written off or inflated away.  Gold and silver bullion. (It also highlights what our Government is trying to avoid through passing this budget).


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#69 2014-08-26 20:06:05

TingTing
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

Forgive my ignorance, but why is a bullion dealer posting on SS? It smells like an advertisement in a public forum of individuals. Meh, just sayin.

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#70 2014-08-26 20:16:13

Ronnie 666
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

^^^ because some of us appreciate it !


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#71 2014-08-26 20:26:59

AinslieBullion
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

Gold Silver Ratio
Whilst most people avidly track the gold price and silver price, fewer follow the ratio between the two.  At the time of writing this morning that ratio has breached 66:1, near the top of its trading range over the last few years.  Over the thousands of years that gold and silver have been used as money and wealth preservation that ratio stood at between 12 and 15 until the end of the 19th century.  Since we left the gold standard in 1971 it has tracked up from the low 20's, dipping below that only once as the Hunt Brothers cornered the market in 1980.  The last time it exceeded 70, it was followed by the 2011 rally that saw silver sky rocket to $48 and the ratio down to only 30.
The chart below illustrates where we are right now from a technical view point.  For technical traders you can see it is due for a move toward the mean which would see silver outperform gold from here.

There is no doubt silver is the more volatile of the pair, seeing bigger highs and bigger lows.  Some people trade that behaviour and we are seeing more people swapping their gold for silver in the store here too.  If you really want to get adventurous and hedge your bets a little, you could look at going short a gold ETF or futures contract and long physical silver.  That way if both go down you don't lose and if the ratio reverts to its mean you win.

gold%20silver%20ratio-2.png


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#72 2014-08-27 19:47:16

AinslieBullion
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

The battle of the USD
On an almost weekly basis in our Ainslie Weekly Wrap radio we are reporting yet another attack on the USD's status as world reserve currency.  This following quote from a recent Clive Maund article probably puts this and the growing tensions with Russia into perspective as well as any:
"Russia, in alliance with China, is threatening to bring an end to the dollar as the global reserve currency, which would mean the end of the American empire.
We are witness to the greatest struggle of our age – the battle to maintain global dollar hegemony, and with it US economic, military and political dominance of the entire planet – and this struggle is now coming to a head.

Notwithstanding its undeniably great accomplishments of the past hundred years, the relationship of the United States to the rest of the world is parasitic. This is because it creates money and debt instruments out of nothing, requiring virtually no effort, which it then swaps for goods and services with other countries. Because the US dollar is the global reserve currency, it is able to rack up astronomic deficits that would be untenable for any other country. US debts are now at such levels that if the US dollar loses its reserve currency status, the United States economy will implode and it will quickly be reduced to the status of a banana republic – hence the sense of urgency in the face of growing threats."
Even a weakening USD normally sees gold prices increase so one can only imagine the implications should this actually play out…

10636042_778909855481810_1133523530511680302_n.jpg


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#73 2014-08-27 19:50:32

TingTing
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

Ronnie 666 wrote:

^^^ because some of us appreciate it !

Frowns not necessary, was not knocking Ainslie Ronnie, just ignorant and asking. They have a comprehensive website providing detailed info, pretty easy to find by yourself? smile

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#74 2014-08-27 21:45:58

Ronnie 666
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

TingTing wrote:
Ronnie 666 wrote:

^^^ because some of us appreciate it !

Frowns not necessary, was not knocking Ainslie Ronnie, just ignorant and asking. They have a comprehensive website providing detailed info, pretty easy to find by yourself? smile

That is true but many people who post on SS are dealers or ordinary SS looking to sell their products - from Administrators to ordinary members. Why single out Ainslie ? I and several others appreciate their posts. I have never considered it a ploy to buy their products but general info on the market and the current trends and developments. Ainslie Bullion keep up the good work.


"The Two Most Common Elements in the Universe Are Hydrogen and Stupidity" Frank Zappa

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#75 2014-08-27 22:38:11

tolly_67
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Re: Ainslie Bullion - Daily news, Weekly Radio and Discussions

Yes TingTing......a lot of it is biased, a lot of it is wrong and a lot of it is complete bullshit.........so how can I even think that....well for all that has been written...the proof is in the pudding and gold is.......still falling.
Regardless.....read and believe at your own peril.

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