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#1 2016-06-06 19:50:40

dagsgarrett
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2010-10-26
Posts: 290
Trades :   

Last chance for RBA to move before election could be worth a punt!

Could be worth putting a sneaky $5 on RBA decision today 50/50 chance if board is concerned at all that USA won't increase rates this month they will have to move today as will be harder to do straight after election IMO

685_rba.jpg


You can THINK as much as you like but it's the DOING that counts!

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#2 2016-06-06 19:58:44

SpacePete
Silver Stacker
Registered: 2014-03-01
Posts: 13,437
Trades :   122 
Website

Re: Last chance for RBA to move before election could be worth a punt!

Wild card bet -- the RBA raises rates after realising they f$cked up last time by lowering.


Catus amat piscem, sed non vult tingere plantas

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#3 2016-06-06 20:00:08

BuggedOut
Member
From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: Last chance for RBA to move before election could be worth a punt!

As of this moment you can get 26.00 for a 0.25% cut on BetFair.

Last time I believe the stock market tipped off the cut at about 10:30am, so I am watching this mornings 1st hour of trade closely today.

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#4 2016-06-06 20:01:31

BuggedOut
Member
From: New South Wales
Registered: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,776
Trades :   37 

Re: Last chance for RBA to move before election could be worth a punt!

SilverPete wrote:

Wild card bet -- the RBA raises rates after realising they f$cked up last time by lowering.

You can get 1000-1 on that with BetFair.

Did you forget the golden rule of politics / banking?  NEVER admit you made a mistake.  Yellen is still playing that game....

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#5 2016-06-06 21:18:56

Caput Lupinum
Silver Stacker
From: Silver Stackers forum
Registered: 2012-06-17
Posts: 4,964
Trades :   11 

Re: Last chance for RBA to move before election could be worth a punt!

no change. AUD may fall on jawboning - better punt on the AUD/USD

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#6 2016-06-07 00:49:17

SpacePete
Silver Stacker
Registered: 2014-03-01
Posts: 13,437
Trades :   122 
Website

Re: Last chance for RBA to move before election could be worth a punt!

Caput Lupinum wrote:

no change. AUD may fall on jawboning - better punt on the AUD/USD

Does the jump in the AUD indicate the market guessed wrong?


Catus amat piscem, sed non vult tingere plantas

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#7 2016-06-07 01:11:33

JulieW
Silver Stacker
From: Australia
Registered: 2010-10-14
Posts: 11,099

Re: Last chance for RBA to move before election could be worth a punt!

From Domain.com.au

The Reserve Bank has predictably decided to again leave official interest rates on hold over June following the rate cut announced last month.

Official rates will remain at the new record low 1.75 per cent with the May rate cut following eleven months with rates on hold. This follows re-activated housing markets following lower mortgage rates since May, with auction clearance rates rising strongly in Sydney and auction market activity in other capitals also increasing.

The Reserve Bank kept rates on hold at their June meeting.The Reserve Bank kept rates on hold at their June meeting. Photo: Henry Zwartz

Signs are emerging of increased residential investor activity reflecting possible changes to property taxes.

Latest economic data remains mixed with concerns continuing regarding the outlook for both the local and international economies.

Although the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics national GDP data for the March quarter was generally positive, indications remain of declining prices growth, which will likely remain a key concern for the bank.

The latest US jobs data was disappointing and decreases the chances of a near-term rise in US interest rates that would have put downward pressure on the Australian dollar in line with policymaker's objectives.

And while ABS building approvals improved over April, trends are mixed with continued strength in Melbourne houses and Sydney units but weakening activity in Sydney houses and Melbourne units.

The April unemployment rate remains at a three-year low, however most of the recent growth has been in part-time jobs with full-time employment falling.

Although rates are on hold this month, the likelihood remains that the Bank will again cut rates in the near-term with growing concerns over declining inflation.

Dr Andrew Wilson is Domain Group's chief economist.

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