RBA Hints at FX Intervention

Nukz · 2012-07-12 21:52:48

Today i saw a interesting article where the RBA secretary explained the AUD might rise sharply purely due to hot money in asia looking for safe havens. This he explained would not reflect the fundamentals of the currency prompting intervention in the FX markets.

I actually remember the RBA in 2009/2010 making the same statement around FX intervention. This could really only come in the form of expansion of the money supply i believe as the RBA has no chance of fighting the FX markets(selling AUD into markets to lower the currency). It should be noted that the SNB(Swiss national bank) have tried this to peg their currency to the EURO for the same reason, speculative hot money looking for safe haven's and it has been a total failure.

I wonder if the RBA are expecting some gradual climb of the AUD or some overnight rush into safe haven's. Whichever happens there does seem to be the continued possibility of RBA expanding the money supply.

fiatphoney · 2012-07-12 22:00:02

The AUD trade is big, and I wish someone would do a paper on it.

Dogmatix · 2012-07-12 22:39:58

Pegging currencies brings its own problems.

We could peg to the USD, but that's like pegging your sailboat to the good ship Titanic.

Either way I wouldn't be playing the FX markets personally... it's going to be rough as.

Nukz · 2012-07-19 23:28:09

"SYDNEY--Germany's Bundesbank is expected to begin adding Australian dollar assets such as government bonds to its foreign reserve holdings before the end of September, bankers say.

The decision, which follows a two-and-a-half year review by the Bundesbank, adds to a wave of central bank demand for Australian-dollar exposures that has swelled over the last year, supporting the currency despite ongoing turmoil in the world economy, lower interest rates and a slide in commodity prices."

This just reaffirms my view that the RBA cannot devalue the AUD even if it wanted to by selling AUD into markets with banks like Bundesbank buying. It appears the RBA's only option would be a expansion of the money supply.

mmm....shiney! · 2012-07-19 23:34:35

Nukz wrote:

It should be noted that the SNB(Swiss national bank) have tried this to peg their currency to the EURO for the same reason, speculative hot money looking for safe haven's and it has been a total failure.

hey Nukz, I'm interested in why you consider the SNB's currency war a failure. A look at the charts and it appears to have been a success.

Nukz · 2012-07-19 23:50:25

I Agree but at what cost, the cost of fighting the markets is massive and while i believe the currency can be held there for a while a central bank i believe cannot fight the markets.

When we hit the next hurdle(GFC 2) and hot money from around the world is looking for safety it will make it near impossible i believe for the SNB to hold the rate. The whole idea for the SNB intervening was because the Franc was getting "too" high and hurting industry and tourism(reminds us all of Australia).

There was a interesting article on Zerohedge around this fight for the SNB which stated in a single week they had printed 17bn just to maintain the rate and another week 13bn.

"These numbers were not seen since August 2011 when the SNB increased money supply by 50 bln and 40 bln per week buying the EUR/CHF at rates between 1.00 and 1.13. Now, however they are buying at 1.20 and are risking extreme losses, especially because many other central banks are dumping euros."

Here is the full article quite interesting. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-pos … ugust-2011

But all this aside i simply do not believe a single bank even being a central bank can compete with world markets for a long time if world markets want Francs they will move the price regardless.

Dogmatix · 2012-07-20 00:02:46

What is the cost to devaluing your own currency if you don't go too far (eg hyperinflate) and you do it to stay at a rough parity with everyone else?

Local inflation I guess? Spend the $$ abroad! (yes i know they'll come back home again, doh)

JulieW · 2012-07-20 02:14:31

We could always link it to some other currency like the Swiss did.

Actually I don't believe any of the AUD being a safe haven. It's been a commodity currency for too long and every hiccup in the world drops it down. I'm expecting exactly the same next time. This is one of the reasons that I think gold could be a better play than just protecting your savings - if you're in a position to do some stack and fiat equalisation.

Also safe haven assumes that these currency traders have overcome their aversion to the US dollar - and considering that there's about 8000 billion of pension fund US dollars ripe for pillaging ("we'll give you an allocation of food stamps, sorry a pension when you're old instead"), I see the USD game continuing for quite a while yet. Definitely past this next crash.

They'll patch this next one together with everything they can lay their hands on, that is where Bernanke will print, and then for the next one they'll do a USD devaluation, and by that time no-one will be much bothered since they'll all have their alternative trading mechanisms setup.

Lovey80 · 2012-07-20 03:17:24

JulieW I am interested in hearing an expansion of your last paragraph. It seems by your wording that there is some sort of difference between Bernanke printing and a completely separate USD devaluation. Are they not one in the same? ie to Devalue you must print.

On the original topic.....If the RBA was smart and not just looking to look after it's banking mates they would print and buy gold. Flooding AUD into the markets will devalue the AUD but still holding a tangible and tradable asset for when the AUD turns south hard and they can use it to buy back AUD. It would be a no brainer trade for them and great for us all.

mmm....shiney! · 2012-07-20 10:12:36

Lovey80 wrote:

On the original topic.....If the RBA was smart and not just looking to look after it's banking mates they would print and buy gold. Flooding AUD into the markets will devalue the AUD but still holding a tangible and tradable asset for when the AUD turns south hard and they can use it to buy back AUD. It would be a no brainer trade for them and great for us all.

I sent an email to Bob Katter a few weeks ago telling him that Australia should be buying gold, listing some reasons and also mentioning that such a move would increase his credibility amongst certain members of the community (like us) and may get him more votes. Thought he might be interested seeing he's such a loudmouth, but no response, go figure.

Might try Barnaby Joyce, he hates debt.

JulieW · 2012-07-20 10:47:03

Lovey80 wrote:

JulieW I am interested in hearing an expansion of your last paragraph. It seems by your wording that there is some sort of difference between Bernanke printing and a completely separate USD devaluation. Are they not one in the same? ie to Devalue you must print.
On the original topic.....If the RBA was smart and not just looking to look after it's banking mates they would print and buy gold. Flooding AUD into the markets will devalue the AUD but still holding a tangible and tradable asset for when the AUD turns south hard and they can use it to buy back AUD. It would be a no brainer trade for them and great for us all.

Lovey80, wiser minds than mine have laid out possible paths and I've tracked down some of the links that brought me to my conclusion. The base being a deflationary depression followed by very high inflation coupled with ongoing unemployment (ie. stagflation). This stagflation was cured last time by soaring interest rates and the last historical bull in gold. My timeframe is based upon the inability of the major economies to deal with their financial issues through political self interest. (ie being reelected where that matters, or keeping their snouts in the trough where it doesn't).

As for the devaluation of inflation, the US has already knocked a fair piece of purchasing power from the dollar and their apparent disinclination to pander to the currency junkies by doing QE3 is because after QE3 Bernanke has admitted that they're in new territory. That is they don't know what will happen and if their 'fixes' will actually 'fix' anything. A lot of pundits say definitely not and hyperinflation is inevitable. Possibly, but that is the tipping point I believe where they will devalue. They will not follow the path of Weimar Germany.

I read ages ago that the way to see the future potentials, is to try and think like a central banker. Well I've tried that and I can see the dollar becoming a unit of exchange like any of the currencies where it takes a hundred or so to buy a meal. That of course has been achieved by devaluation over the years (or lack of valuation initially).

The issue the USA faces, is that its dollar is not backed by anything but promises. In order to gain the confidence of users shattered by roaring inflation, they have to back it with something. I believe that will be by relinking it to the value of gold in some way. With the world's central banks buying gold as fast as possible and the financial war against gold being fought so bitterly it's a very strong possiblity. I've seen reference that the BIS is behind the gold smackdown. That being the case, BIS must have a reason to keep gold affordable for nations and to try and get gold out of private hands with fear.

If the S does indeed HTF with derivatives, nothing will save the world's financial systems other than resolute and central action. That will most likely be to our disbenefit overall. That's where the devaluation point occurs. By that stage I see most countries in blind panic and having a 'G' meeting that actually has action. Since like it or not, the USA is the Rome of today, all paths lead to its actions. I think they'll agree to surrender reserve currency status to an IMF/BIS basket that includes gold. USA will then relink its FRNs to this central agreement, and lose it's 40-50% in value as per Bernanke's last ditch move.

Thanks for the question. You've really made me revisit my premises and conclusion, and I was reminded of just how fluid this situation is. No-one knows what is really going on and our elected representatives are ignorant of how to fix the circumstance. In the last depression, Australia went off the gold standard and dropped its pound by about 40 percent where it stayed until Keating relinked it to the reserve currency. If you consider the action of Keating linking the AUD to the USD (effectively the gold standard once again), you can see a precedent since the value of the currency is going to be linked to the money supply. In the case of the USD, by the time it gets to it, that is when that former reserve currency will become a local currency and be valued at its fundamentals, which based upon the USA's economy, will not be a thousand dollars for a loaf of bread, but could easily be 10.

This interview at KWN lays out the mechanism of linking the USD to gold and it's possible efffects
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/ … alued.html

This would mean they say, 'Ok, on Monday the Fed would be tendering all gold at $10,000 an ounce,' or some number that would cover that debt. So if the debt is $53 trillion and the monetary base is not quite $3 trillion, then they would come up with a number where bank assets or loans would be covered and that would be the magnitude of the devaluation.
They tender for gold, using this example, at $10,000 an ounce. The proclamation itself would not be inflationary, but the act of purchasing private sector gold at $10,000 an ounce would demand they print a bunch of money and that would be inflationary. That is how the system would be de-levered.
That would have good ramifications, even though it's highly inflationary and it devalues the dollar dramatically, it would have politically expedient benefits to debt holders. So we see that as being the end game

This is has commentary on Bernanke's theory.
http://alternativeeconomics.wordpress.c … his-plans/

History has shown us that this has happened already in the past and is a weapon than can be used when all else fails. Well it looks as if we are coming to that point now as all else has failed. Previously the dollar was devalued by 40% and I'm sure we can expect something similar this time around.

and so is this
http://alternativeeconomics.wordpress.c … his-plans/
and this commentator also
http://sot-u.blogspot.com/2011/12/will- … -like.html

And last, the fifth Step, so if the first 4 steps have already been done in order. Will Bernanke follow through on the last step, which will effectively put the US economy in the toilet. The last step is to DEVALUE THE DOLLAR BY 40%.
Although a policy of intervening to affect the exchange value of the dollar is nowhere on the horizon today, it's worth noting that there have been times when exchange rate policy has been an effective weapon....A striking example from U.S. history is Franklin Roosevelt's 40 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1933-34, enforced by a program of gold purchases and domestic money creation. The devaluation and the rapid increase in money supply it permitted ended the U.S. deflation remarkably quickly.
One problem with Mr. Bernanke's stunning example of FDRs 40% devaluation is paper money was backed by Gold back then. You could trade in Gold for paper or paper for Gold. The money we have today is now called a federal reserve note. its only worth the paper its printed on. So my warning to Joe Public, watch out for any "Bank Holidays" were they shut down the banks for several days or a week.

The issue of course is how to relink to gold or something that is acceptable, in all senses of the word and to all markets and consumers. They are not going to let go of the reins until they are strung up on lamp posts and even that will not hit the true puppet masters. I believe that the puppet masters are losing control (not consolidating their grip) and the arrogance of playing god has led them to the fatal mistake of ignoring history.

So on an optimistic note, I see sunlight in 6-8 years and if you're on SS then you've seen one of the few ways to position yourself so that you survive financially in the new post Depression 2 world.

Sorry to go on so long, but it's a complicated question!!

p.s. seeing things as a central banker is very depressing , but I don't see a gold standard as benefiting them and so gold will only be a part of whatever the new reserve is.

Last edited by JulieW (2012-07-20 10:55:56)

Thor122 · 2012-07-20 12:43:47

Fx technical analisis:

AUD/USD uptrend remains in place

AUD/USD had spent early July consolidating the gains made

throughout June. The daily close above the July 5 high at

1.0328 has maintained bullish sentiment, confirming

yesterday's near-term trend reversal above 1.0276. This

development now highlights a triple top at 1.0458 as the next

key resistance level to watch, with a break above here

exposing the March 19 high at 1.0635 thereafter. Support is

located initially at 1.0276, followed by 1.0172. We note that the

latter level must be taken out in order to derail the current

advance.

5. Break above 1.0328 sustains bullish price momentum

I buy in 1 or less and sell above 1.05

willrocks · 2012-07-20 12:50:08

"RBA secretary explained the AUD might rise sharply"

That's good enough reason for me to think the AUD will drop sharply.

Dogmatix · 2012-07-20 19:00:43

Lovey80 wrote:

JulieW I am interested in hearing an expansion of your last paragraph. It seems by your wording that there is some sort of difference between Bernanke printing and a completely separate USD devaluation. Are they not one in the same? ie to Devalue you must print.

I would argue that technically printing does not equal devaluation, but the correlation is uncanny . Going by my understanding that any valuation relies on another party to do the 'valuing', and talking from an international perspective.

I don't think that any of the US/UK/Australia will buy gold. It may imply that their economic genius is fallable, or that Keynes' teachings are in question.

Lovey80 · 2012-07-20 19:39:18

Of course you are right Dog, it doesn't necessarily mean devaluation. For example, the carry trade happening now is causing the AUD higher through demand for AUD.

My question was, how do you devalue? Bernanke just can't call a press conference and announce that the USD in now worth 30-40% less. The same as the Chinese can't just Peg the RNB to the USD through Devine policy law. It must physically take measures to hold the valuation peg. Ie if china wants a 6-1 ratio with the USD then they must actually print 6-1 with the US to keep it there..

Am I missing something?

Dogmatix · 2012-07-20 20:19:28

That's a good question.

Maybe the answer lies in the question: "How is currency valued?"

(that wasn't an attempt at a cop out)

As valuation is determined by foreigners through trade, perhaps the answer is by increasing the amount of $USD outside of the US itself?

How can we get a bunch of USDs to materialise outside of the USA, without actually printing them? One way would be to ask the international banks and central banks, etc, to use slightly less of them as reserves. They'd need to then swap those USDs for another currency perhaps.

It's not technically printing, it is releasing USDs from stasis in reserves. Or something like that. Just a thought anyway.

Is the other way USD is valued is through bond prices? I think the bond market is well and truly broken though.

radiobirdman · 2012-07-20 20:45:52

Buy gold when AUD up sell gold whea AUD drops not rocket sience made heaps last 12 months ,makes up for losses in silver

JulieW · 2012-07-21 03:52:04

I just saw this on Jim Sinclair's blog. It shows another possible path for USD devaluation. Bernanke may have little to do with it according to this article.
http://www.voltairenet.org/Global-Plans … the-Dollar

Global Plans to Replace the Dollar
by Bridgette Grillo, Krystal Alexander, Nicole Fletcher
Nations have reached their limit in subsidizing the United States' military adventures. During meetings in June 2009 in Yekaterinburg, Russia, world leaders such as China's President Hu Jintao, his then Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev, and other top officials of the six-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organisation took the first formal step to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

An additional reason for a new reserve currency

As Chris Hedges wrote in June 2009, "The architects of this new global exchange realize that if they break the dollar they also break America's military domination. US military spending cannot be sustained without this cycle of heavy borrowing. The official US defense budget for fiscal year 2008 was $623 billion. The next closest national military budget was China's, at $65 billion, according to the Central Intelligence Agency."

(no surprise then that they need an endless supply of enemies to use up their over-production.

Note also that Oz just agreed to trade in Yuan with China, joining the growing list of traders outside the USD.
Timing is out in the article but the set-up looks possible.

The cycle supporting a permanent US war economy appears to be almost over. Once the dollar cannot flood central banks and no one buys US treasury bonds, the American global military empire collapses. The impact on daily living for the US population could be severe.
Our authors predict that in addition to increased costs, states and cities will see their pension funds drained. The government will be forced to sell off infrastructure, including roads and transport, to private corporations. People will be increasingly charged for privatized utilities that were once regulated and subsidized. Commercial and private real estate will be worth less than half its current value. The negative equity that already plagues 25 percent of American homes will expand to include nearly all property owners. It will be difficult to borrow and impossible to sell real estate unless we accept massive losses. There will be block after block of empty stores and boarded-up houses. Foreclosures will be epidemic. There will be long lines at soup kitchens and many, many homeless.

This result of course fits in with the views of many pundits.
If this was enacted, the devaluation would no doubt be negotiated initially and thereafter the USD would be valued by the Forex markets.

Last edited by JulieW (2012-07-21 03:56:37)

mmm....shiney! · 2012-07-23 21:02:14

mmm....shiney! wrote:

Lovey80 wrote:
On the original topic.....If the RBA was smart and not just looking to look after it's banking mates they would print and buy gold. Flooding AUD into the markets will devalue the AUD but still holding a tangible and tradable asset for when the AUD turns south hard and they can use it to buy back AUD. It would be a no brainer trade for them and great for us all.
I sent an email to Bob Katter a few weeks ago telling him that Australia should be buying gold, listing some reasons and also mentioning that such a move would increase his credibility amongst certain members of the community (like us) and may get him more votes. Thought he might be interested seeing he's such a loudmouth, but no response, go figure.
Might try Barnaby Joyce, he hates debt.

Here goes

Subject: Gold
Date: 23 July 2012 7:59:46 PM AEST
To: jenny.swan@aph.gov.au
Hi jenny
This is an email I sent to Bob Katter. He must think I'm a nut job because he did not reply. Now I know a lot of people consider Barnarby to be a nut job (tongue-in-cheek), but seriously, I know he is concerned about the mounting level of debt in this country. So maybe he should consider pressuring the powers that be to buy gold.
Subject: Gold
Date: 15 June 2012 7:32:51 PM AEST
To: Bob.Katter.MP@aph.gov.au
Hi bob
It's long past the time that Australia started buying more gold to build it's reserves. many countries are already doing so out of fear of the imminent collapse of the USD and all fiat currencies around the world.
Even broke countries such as Italy and Greece have more gold than Australia - they therefore have a greater potential to restore their financial status after the collapse than we do. You would be surprised by some of the countries that have larger gold reserves than Australia. Bob, we are one of the largest producers of gold in the world, but our federal reserves pale into insignificance with countries such as Lebanon and Portugal.
It doesn't appear that anyone in Canberra is seriously considering the need to buy more gold as a hedge to protect our country. Instead of squandering our predicted surplus (ha ha ha) and our taxes on schemes designed to win votes, we should be investing in gold.
I can guarantee you that if you publicly stated in favour of the purchase of more gold, you would increase your profile, gain more support from the many knowledgable economic minded people in Australia - and most importantly, you would be promoting a policy that would protect our economic future and set us in good stead for when the collapse of the current financial system occurs.
Regards
XXXXXXX

He should research Austrian Economics.

Regards
XXXXXXX

Edit to add: "Jenny" is Barnaby Joyce's contact.

Last edited by mmm....shiney! (2012-07-23 21:06:51)

thatguy · 2012-08-08 09:39:01

Guest Post: While All Eyes Are On Europe, Japan Circles A Black Hole
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-pos … black-hole

There is a terrible irony in export-dependent nations being viewed as "safe havens." Their safe haven status pushes their currencies higher, which then crushes their export sector, which then weakens their entire economy and stability, undermining the very factors that created their safe haven status.

Australia much

We can lay out the dynamic of Japan's currency and export-dependent economy thusly:
1. Export-dependent economies such as Japan, China and Germany rely on strong exports to sustain their employment and growth.
2. This means they must maintain positive current accounts (trade surpluses).
3. As their currencies strengthen, their exports become less competitive globally.
4. Export-dependent economies must pursue strategies to keep their currencies aligned with their buyers, the importing nations.
5. Germany has done so via the eurozone, which aligned its largest import market, Europe, with its own currency.
6. China has done so by pegging the renminbi (yuan) to the U.S. dollar and restricting foreign exchange (i.e. not allowing a free-floating renminbi).
7. Japan has neither of these advantages, and must intervene in the FX markets by buying and selling yen and dollars.
8. Despite its well-known debt problems (see chart below), Japan retains a massive and diverse industrial base, a current-account surplus (or modest deficit with its nuclear power plants largely offline) and large overseas assets.
9. These assets, plus its homogeneous culture, makes Japan an island of stability in an increasingly unstable global economy.
10. For these reasons, the yen is considered a "safe haven" currency and yen-denominated bonds as "safe haven" liquid investments.
11. As demand for yen rises, the currency strengthens, weakening the competitiveness of Japanese exports.
12. The "safe haven" status of the yen ends up hurting the Japanese economy's primary engine, exports.
13. The stronger yen ends up weakening the very attributes that make the yen and Japanese bonds "safe havens."
14. As the global economy slides into recession, exports decline sharply under the double-whammy of falling demand and a rising currency.
Ironic, to say the least.

This is why I think the Euro is such a success, Germany can succeed all it wants and it will not push the up Euro, because they still have the PIIGS weighing it down. Currency devaluation without printing, the holy grail? The USD safe haven status will spike up and kill the US economy in the next crash... ironic

Last edited by thatguy (2012-08-08 11:08:05)

mmm....shiney! · 2012-08-08 10:54:07

thatguy wrote:

This is why I think the Euro is such a success, Germany can succeed all it wants and it will not push the up Euro, because they still have the PIIGS weighing it down. Currency devaluation without printing, the holy grail? The USD safe haven status will spike up kill the US economy in the next crash... ironic

What an awesome idea!!! Do you really think they planned it that way??

thatguy · 2012-08-08 11:10:10

mmm....shiney! wrote:

thatguy wrote:
This is why I think the Euro is such a success, Germany can succeed all it wants and it will not push the up Euro, because they still have the PIIGS weighing it down. Currency devaluation without printing, the holy grail? The USD safe haven status will spike up kill the US economy in the next crash... ironic
What an awesome idea!!! Do you really think they planned it that way??

Sure do, but it is one hell of a balancing act... it is best to keep them teetering without going over the edge and at the same time try grab the booty (gold)

Roswell Crash Survivor · 2012-08-08 22:35:06

thatguy wrote:

Currency devaluation without printing, the holy grail? The USD safe haven status will spike up and kill the US economy in the next crash... ironic

This is known as The Triffin Dilemma or The Triffin Paradox.

The Triffin Dilemma and The Saver's Curse
http://sciie.ucsc.edu/JIMF4/OJeanne_Triffin0911.pdf

Nukz · 2012-08-08 22:45:30

I suspect the German's have known for a long time how this works, most German's are quite switched on with finance. The problem arises when their debt ridden fellow country's are asking for money and all eyes are on Germany to fork out.

I'm surprised country's like the PIIGS have not simply exited the euro. This is where it's become a political issue where PIIGS country's are 'proud' to be part of the euro and don't want to be seen leaving and going back.

As far as the USD rising that poses challenges as if it does rise the fed can use this as a buffer zone to print more essentially inflating their way out of debt. The question i have is would a high USD really effect America that badly? i see them as simply a service economy and a stronger dollar would at least bring prices of goods down assisting savings rates in a near 0% interest economy.

I may be missing some glaring issue here it's simply because there are just so many factors to comprehend. I'm sure if i did miss something it will be picked up :-)

Water&Food · 2012-08-09 02:56:46

Nukz wrote:

I'm surprised country's like the PIIGS have not simply exited the euro. This is where it's become a political issue where PIIGS country's are 'proud' to be part of the euro and don't want to be seen leaving and going back.

It goes far beyond that buddy.

IMF. Do this or else. Nobody likes sanctions. Nobody likes embargoes.
Citizens have become too dependent on consumerism. Iphones are a necessity in life. Didn't you know?
Stop the flow of iphones and people will start dropping dead.

Like any typical junkie, they will be willing to hit rock bottom and maintain that for the rest of their lives. Well, till they 'had enough' and somehow snap the fk outta it.

Silver Stackers

#1 2012-07-12 21:52:48

RBA Hints at FX Intervention

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