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#1 2017-03-18 18:51:14

mmissinglink
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From: Everywhere...simultaneously
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PCGS claims to know what about ASE's?

Starting at about 10:10 in this interview and running for about 15 seconds), PCGS "Bulk Director" claims to know which unopened Monster Boxes of ASE's will grade better than others....how is this possible?







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#2 2017-03-18 19:24:05

Altima
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Re: PCGS claims to know what about ASE's?

Hmm. I suppose one way of knowing is whether the coins were minted early or later (depending on some serial number on the box). If I recall, coins that are minted early using a fresh metal die will be of better quality and strike.


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#3 2017-03-18 19:47:42

Ipv6Ready
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Re: PCGS claims to know what about ASE's?

^^ sounds logical as the first lot of coins stuck with a new die would be the best.

if one learns/decodes the sequence of the serial number,  it could reveal information like the day of strike, press number and die number. Maybe even the operator?

Plus information like that might not be considered a secret.


WTB 4 to 6 grams of pure gold. Don't care if it is coin, bar or granules. Near spot, suits anyone who has been tempted to open a certicard or just have some granules to make a ring

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#4 2017-03-18 19:58:30

Holdfast
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Re: PCGS claims to know what about ASE's?

@ 2:28 - Lot number and box number

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#5 2017-03-18 20:28:40

whinfell
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Re: PCGS claims to know what about ASE's?

See this page from Gainsville Coins where they specifically offered 2014 ASE monster boxes with serial numbers 1 to 10:

http://blog.gainesvillecoins.com/2014/0 … lle-coins/

More generally, if there's a way to correlate box serial numbers with the freshness of the die (perhaps with some inside knowledge?), then you'd be able to pick which boxes are more likely to grade well.

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#6 2017-03-18 20:32:22

Ipv6Ready
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Re: PCGS claims to know what about ASE's?

But as the podcast said vast majority of the coins will be ms69 or ms70
Also surely us mint has 100s of presses running 24/7 to pump out 10 to 40 million coins a months


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#7 2017-03-18 20:37:57

Gullintanni
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Re: PCGS claims to know what about ASE's?

Golly those big 12kg? bars were only .9950 pure. meh
I bet they do not sell to many of those to all us .99999 snobs:)

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#8 2017-03-19 10:23:01

mmissinglink
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Re: PCGS claims to know what about ASE's?

The US Mint ASE dies are changed frequently as many, many, many coins are struck during each production run. The US Mint will produce new dies so long as the production continues....if that means thousands of dies for tens of millions of coins minted, then that's how it's done from my understanding.  Also, US Mint officials have claimed that after the coins are minted, they go on (temp) shelves. The US Mint doesn't sort these coins by which one's are struck with a fresh die. So when they are packed into Monster boxes, coins struck with worn dies are almost certainly mixed in with coins struck with fresh dies.

Unless I am not understanding the US Mint packaging process correctly, that means that there should be no way of knowing, just by a serial number on a box, which box should contain coins that will predictably grade better than other boxes.



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#9 2017-03-19 11:30:47

Ipv6Ready
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Re: PCGS claims to know what about ASE's?

Even in the scenario you suggest, I think there is a good chance you can.

If you take the podcast at face value, and take your assertion on how US Mint sorts the coins, even than after a while companies like PCGS should be able to say a box contains good coins.

US mint surely have 500 presses or more to press 10 to 50 million ASE a month, and how many strikes before a die is considered worn? Say after 500 presses of 5000 life it starts to lose its edge.

So in day one, there would be 250,000 coins where the average is very good. Even if they are stored and boxed randomly unless US mint intentionally shuffle the coins they will be boxed and go to the warehouse as a batch. Plus chances are all the dies are swapped at regular intervals too, meaning another 500 boxes of coins containing fresh strikes.

Now when a monster box comes with serial number 0000300 is great than boxes around that number are also likely to be good, and very likely NGC or Pcgs are monitoring serial numbers, than they could guess if the box with a xxxx number is good or bad.

Last edited by Ipv6Ready (2017-03-19 13:16:48)


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#10 2017-03-19 12:48:21

mmissinglink
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Re: PCGS claims to know what about ASE's?

Ipv6Ready wrote:

Even in the scenario you suggest, I think there is a good chance you can.

If you take the podcast at face value, and take your assertion on how US Mint sorts the coins, even than after a while companies like PCGS should be able to say a box contains good coins.

US mint surely have 500 of presses or more to press 10 to 50 million ASE, and how many strikes people a die is considered worn? Say after 500 presses of 5000 it starts to lose its edge.

So in day one, there would be 250,000 coins where the average is very good. Even if they are stored and boxed randomly unless US mint intentionally shuffle the coins they will be boxed and go to the warehouse as a batch. Plus chances all the dies are swapped at regular intervals too, meaning another 500 boxes of coins that contains a good chance of fresh strikes.

Now when a monster box comes in serial number 0000300 than boxes around that number are also likely to be good, so if NGC or Pcgs were monitoring serial numbers, they could guess if the box with a xxxx number is good or bad.



I think the $64,000 question is, roughly how often on average does the US Mint change out the dies when pressing BU ASE's? If this is known, then there might be a window of insight for smart people at the TPG's making an educated guess as to which Monster boxes will likely grade better before even opening them. And if this is known, this could be a huge advantage for certain dealers who buy ASE Monster boxes by the pallet and send them in for grading. No wonder so many ASE's are grading 70.....many of the lower quality aren't even being considered for slabs or if they are seen to be less than a 70 by the graders, they are rejected before the encapsulation process.

And yet, I can still see myself buying modern MS70 ASE's because there's just something very neat about seeing an unblemished, visually perfect ASE even if there are hundreds or thousands of them out there. After all, I have experienced many times the disappointment in receiving new, fresh, raw ASE's only to find dings and scratches on the obverse or reverse faces and how this sort of ruins the experience of admiring the design of the coin up close.




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#11 2017-03-19 13:29:25

Ipv6Ready
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From: North Sydney
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Re: PCGS claims to know what about ASE's?

From what the podcast say for a serious collector surely ms70 is the only grade that matters for ASE.

Is that a bad thing for premium, likely not, as new people start to collect chances they collect raw coins and less grades but if a number of people every coming year get serious they too will seek out ms70.

As for my above comment, many parts are just a guess, like having industrial presses, but probably a correct, as I can't see how else US mint can pump out 10 to 40 million a months without automated industrial processes .

Not sure where you are based, but if you are like me, I guess its the same with my experience with U.K. Mints Queens Beast, buy a tube like I did for the lion and chances are it is damaged in transit, so I've resorted to buying a few from eBay uk of singles from uk mint so it's in capsules minimising chance of damage.


WTB 4 to 6 grams of pure gold. Don't care if it is coin, bar or granules. Near spot, suits anyone who has been tempted to open a certicard or just have some granules to make a ring

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#12 2017-03-20 17:09:14

mmissinglink
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From: Everywhere...simultaneously
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Re: PCGS claims to know what about ASE's?

The RM seems to be on par with the US Mint in terms of quality of coins....it's hit an miss....some releases better, some releases worse as well as some years better, some years worse.

I used to (when I first stated stacking) buy ASE's by the nickel (5 at a time) but quickly stopped that practice when I realized how bad of a deal (aka, how much higher premiums I was paying) that was. The only way now that I'd buy ASE's is by the Monster Box and since I definitely don't have that sort of cash at this time or for the past few years, I haven't purchased new raw ASE's since like the end of 2012. That said, I have purchased some uncirculated 1986 raw bullion ASE's to add to my collection rather than to my "stack". It was impossible for me not to add some first year ASE's to my long term collection....they are every bit a "collector" coin to me as many of the proof collector coins that have come out in recent years....because they are collectible.




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Last edited by mmissinglink (2017-03-20 17:09:54)


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